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Tuesday, December 6, 2022

THE REAL REASON BITCOIN IS DOWN

Welcome back to Cryptozeros, i am George, we’re all George. So today, I’m gonna try to explain why bitcoin is down I’m reading the comments and reading or sensing the fear out there, and I think I have an explanation. So let’s get started thanks for tuning in, as always smash the like subscribe to the channel two streams. Almost every day, 11 30 and 8 30 pm central standard time make sure you hit that notification bell and follow me on twitter, Facebook, Instagram and check out all the latest news article and guides at kryptosaros.com.

Welcome Welcome. Welcome I’m sensing a lot of fear A lot of fodders today and i get it. I get how bitcoin has fallen a little bit from the last day or so, but I’ve been saying: bitcoin has been stuck in this channel and has not broken out yet i mean literally, it’s been going sideways. It has not been going down.

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More has not been going up more, it’s just still stuck in that channel, and i said it last night I said it the with the the morning before right. So, overall, right now, bitcoin is still going sideways and it’s still in that weird phase, where it’s just not moving. It’s not breaking out either way right. But what does this mean?

Does this mean that the bull run is over? No, it does not. It does not, because fundamentally, nothing has changed for bitcoin. However short term, there may be maybe one big event that could be holding bitcoin back so short term. I’M going to try to explain what that is, and i think you guys know where i’m going with this based on my thumbnail already, but in case you’re not aware uh, it could be due to this tax loss harvesting. Now this is

This is very important. Okay, now some of you guys will say no, i don’t care about taxes, i don’t i don’t. I don’t plan on paying taxes. I plan on hiding everything i have, and i know some of you guys are uh – are leaning towards that stance, but for the big boys for the whales for people that made a substantial amount of money right, they’re all looking at taxes, specifically how to reduce taxes, Because a substantial amount of gains was made in 2021 now some of you guys may disagree with that and say: oh what games? What are you talking about?

Well, if, if you’re not one of those people that simply bought at top, but if you started buying toward the end of the beginning of the year or you dc8 along the way or you bought at bottom, you would have seen substantial gains right and with substantial Gains, unfortunately, there’s substantial taxes, so tax loss harvesting is something that a lot of wealthy people are looking at in terms of how to take advantage and reduce their capital gains taxes, and this is really important when it comes to crypto, because crypto, at least in the Us not in other countries, i don’t know how it is, but at least in the us there is still one loophole that is open and that’s called wash trading wash trading is a loophole that will shut down in equities already so with stocks. You really can’t do this toward the end of the year, but with crypto you still can – and this may be the reason why we’re seeing a little bit more down pressure over the last day or so, and why bitcoin has not broken up above 52. 000. Okay, so if you’re not aware of this, let me just explain it really, simply: okay, so let’s say you are sitting on a ton of gains say you bought bitcoin at 30 000 You bought ethereum at two thousand dollars. You may have bought ethereum or solana at twenty dollars, or you would have

Maybe you bought tara at twenty dollars, an avalanche at twenty dollars, you’re up hundreds to thousands of percents right. Had you not sold any and you’re still holding you never made a single trade? Well, you don’t have to worry about capital gains tax right because you haven’t sold, but if you made any trade at all, you traded some of these for other crypto, you traded it for stable coins, you maybe traded for cash, and you cashed out well, if you’ve Done any of those things well, then, you’ve had capital gains right, so for a lot of people. What they’re trying to do is offset those capital gains. So what do you do if you made a hundred thousand dollars?

Fifty thousand dollars a million dollars, Ten thousand dollars right. What do you do? Well, you could do wash training. You could do tax loss harvesting and offset those gains. For example, if you happen to buy, let’s say solana i’ll just pick solana. As an example say, you happen to buy some solana at 220 dollars and it’s now 190 right uh for you as a long-term holder, you may not care it’s like hey. I don’t care if it’s down a little bit, i’m just go dca more into it and just keep holding right. But here’s the thing with the wash trading rule open uh, at least in the us

What you could do is sell off solana and buy it back at the same price and what that does is well trigger a capital loss, because you bought solana, let’s say at 220: you sold it at 190, so you’re down 30 dollars. It’S counted as a capital loss and you can buy it back immediately at the same price right and you don’t have to worry about it. You you’ve gotten that capital loss already and you’re, basically starting a new trade. So that’s the thing with wash trading with equities. You can’t do it.

You have to wait 30 days before you could do it. That is why people that sold off that are trying to do tax loss harvesting with equities in the u.s. They would have done it in november, already they’re not going to do it in december because it doesn’t count for them. But when it, when it comes to crypto, you could wait literally until the very last day of the year december 31st, to take advantage of this and re-buy back so that you can capture a lot of this capital loss to offset your capital gains.

Okay, so that may be what’s going on right now doesn’t explain everything, but it makes a whole lot of sense because a lot of you guys a lot of people, that’s been in a space for months or years now, um. You know that you’re you’re you’ve been killing it. Your capital gains is substantial right and of course, i know a lot of you guys are looking for ways to decrease your gains and and not pay as many taxes right. So i think that is what’s going on right now and it just makes a whole lot of sense and if you think about it, you know it’s just it’s a really good time to take advantage. I know some of you guys, like my like my partner here coin tracking there’s a few products like this out. There

Well, this will go out and basically look at all the trades from all of your wallets right, including exchange wallets and your your uh mobile wallet and uh. Your your um hardware wallets right. Something like this will track every single trade out there for you and i think, a lot of people that are doing this are looking at their capital gains and like wow, i’ve made so much this year and will end up paying so much in taxes. So what can i do so? This is something that can be done and it’s definitely a loophole that may go away in 2022 because it’s already been removed for stocks and other other kind of investments.

So this could go away in 2022 but as far as i understand, it’s still open in 2021 in the us, but i’m not a financial advisor, not a tax advisor, i’m not a cpa. So if you want tax advice, go seek it, but i do believe this is what’s happening right now. Okay, so that’s number one! I just want to get that off, because i do think this does have a lot to do with what we’re seeing right now, but again not trying to throw fear out there. Okay, because to put things in perspective, like i started to stream, bitcoin is still going sideways.

Bitcoin has not formed a new low and a lot of people are talking like it has. Bitcoin didn’t fall down to forty thousand. Didn’T fall down to thirty thousand, didn’t break our recent low of forty five thousand right. We are still within that channel. So do not panic, Do not panic!

Bitcoin is not going through anything that hasn’t for the last You know month or so since the beginning of december. We will get through it, we will get through it now um. I did talk about fundamentals right. I talked about holders and, of course, capital gains and so forth. Right now, if you happen to be a holder um and you never sell, you never make a trade right.

Well then, you don’t have to worry about capital gains tax, So that’s fantastic, but um taking a look. I do have a few statistics for you uh in terms of long-term holders. I mean they are doing exactly that: Okay, so long-term holders of bitcoin they’re continuing to stay strong, they’re, ignoring the flood, they don’t care about tax loss harvesting because they basically haven’t sold.

So take a look at this bitcoin supply that hasn’t moved in five plus years, never touched never touched at all, has reached an all-time high of 23, and this continues to go higher and higher as more and more people come into the space. Now we know a substantial amount of people came into space within the last few years, so it hasn’t been five plus years yet, but this percent will keep going up, because so many people that are coming into space, especially with bitcoin, realize that it’s the future. It’S the future and there’s no point to to try to time top or bottom, because we know where it’s going to go right kind of like what michael saylor’s been saying for this past year or so. But this keeps going up. So it does show that more and more people are just simply holding and ignoring what’s going on out there right and there’s a lot more graphs that also show this uh net position change for bitcoin

Well, actually, it shows that yeah there’s a lot of accumulation going on right now. So that’s pretty positive. Also take a look at this uh total supply held by long-term holders again uh. It did dip down a little bit slightly a little bit from november, but you could see even with bitcoin, coming down substantially for 69 000 Long-Term holders, even though it came down slightly still overall, holding very strong and you could see actually with our bottom of 42. 000 started turning up again right, So it does show a lot of people are in it for the long haul and they’re in there.

For a long haul and they continue to buy and huddle, i mean that’s what i’m trying to show you guys here and uh. What else is there, and i guess. Lastly, i want to show you this, so this is a pretty interesting uh interesting. I guess. Um, look at what bitcoin is doing right now versus previous cycles, 2013 2017, and this is looking at floor levels and fibonacci levels and basically looking at this, it does seem like bitcoin, is still on track and is still going to move forward right.

So, just throwing a little ta in there little little pattern there to give you guys hope for short term or not short term short, mid and long term. All right, that’s pretty much it guys so today, overall, i know some of you guys are down you’re, not feeling it, because just yesterday, bitcoin was at 52, 000 or yeah. It was yesterday morning yesterday morning or day before, right and some of you guys may feel, like oh you’ve, been tricked once again right. Why is bitcoin not going on going higher? Well, this could be

This could be the reason this could be the reason. Uh tax loss, harvesting, a lot of people that made a substantial amount of money is looking to offset their capital gains right. So this could be a big reason and, lastly, there’s one other thing now: i don’t hold a lot of weight to this anymore, but if you look at options, expirations, which happens to be this friday, the last day of this year, if you’re looking at it, the Volume is substantial: there is a ton of volume for this friday. You can see some of these green candlesticks we’re talking about billions of calls, tens of billions of calls right, but the max paying price is at 48 000 And i’ve looked at this before. Sometimes it holds true, Sometimes it doesn’t

The max paying price happens to be at 48 000 and that’s close to where we are right now, So this could also have something to do with it because of this, but the volume is enormous, mostly mostly on the call side, and mostly on the bullish side. You have ones at a hundred thousand right, 140, 000, some even at 300 000 and uh Tens of billions, but the max paying price is still at 48 000, so that could have effect as well all right guys. That is it now.

Let’S do some q a yeah someone just mentioned about the largest option, Expirations in history i mean looking at this. It is, i can’t verify it’s the largest, but it certainly looks like it because, like even this, one is like 30 billion. This one at 120 is like 20 something billion this one at 200 000. Is that yeah

Like 20 billion, i mean the the volume for this expiration is absolutely enormous, absolutely and more or less. Unfortunately, though, the max payne is still at 48, 000 and um, and i think a lot of these are not going to be in the water by the time we hit friday, but we’ll see we’ll see all right uh. Now, let’s let me look through the comments. Make sure that i didn’t miss anything and why tigger says george, you know the real name of shatoshi nakamoto’s elon musk uh. I did not know that uh

Nor do i agree with that, but um thanks for sharing. Does this method work in canada, unbearable, ass you’ll have to you have to dig. I don’t know, i don’t know what the tax rules are in canada. You know. Watch trading, i know, is legal in some countries and not legal in some countries.

So it best do your homework and seek out you know: tax advice, let’s see golden surface, but george by the time we do hit a lower low. Our portfolio will be wrecked already. If it’s going lower, we need to decide how much to sell golden server. Here’S the thing, no one knows how low it’s going to go or if it’s gold mounts right back. I i wish i had

I wish i had this this uh, this picture or diagram i had from last night, and it just shows that every time there’s up and down up and down up and down up and down what happens is unfortunately, a lot of people like you. That will keep thinking that there’s going to be a lower low, so they never end up buying the dips and they wait until it’s too late and they fomo in that top. That’S the thing you don’t know when low is coming or what price range. It is right, if you believe in a project and you believe in its future. What the best thing you could do is just dollar cost average into it.

That’S really it so i mean to answer your question. You just don’t know you just don’t know it can’t go down lower right, it could and if you’re trying to take advantage of tax loss harvesting, i guess it doesn’t matter because if you’re selling off to buy and it goes down more, then you sell you sell Off again to buy more and buy back, you just keep doing it right. So, if you’re using that strategy well, then it doesn’t really matter, but if you’re a long-term dca guy, what you want to do is take advantage of the dips you don’t want to buy when things are going up, you buy when things are going down. In fact, that’s how you’re supposed to do it or it’s more advantageous to do it that way so uh, let’s see ice davis i’ll, never touch bitcoin too risky. Well, unfortunately, uh one day, you’ll touch it and it’ll be too late.

I’Ll just put it that way: Uh revere, welcome emily says i’m panicking. I don’t know why you would be panicking. I mean this is the same level. We’Ve been since the beginning of december.

It is no worse, so there’s no reason to be panicked. Um, let’s see, shannon appreciate it. Uh, let’s see adam stop spreading the fear. All right, gaul, says, charts, say best time to buy. All coins is late december. Every single year.

I have no idea if that’s true or not. I have no idea if that’s true, but i do know that in 2018 that happened, but that’s because uh bitcoin stalled out and all coins had a rush of money coming in right, but 20 2019. 2020. I’M not so sure, that’s the case, but i do know. I do know that whenever things are down is usually a good time to buy, because this bull run, in my opinion, is not over.

It’S not over. I’Ve lived through too many of these, and recently it seems, like i’ve, been doing a lot of reminiscing with you guys about um about some of these previous dips that we had right, not like 30, 000 and 40 000. I mean we’ve seen that we’ve seen it’s not like, we haven’t seen it this year and people at this point. Still it’s not the same thing. It was much worse than now because the uh this sideways movement, even though it looks like we’ve, been going down more than not, but it’s still sideways didn’t form.

Any new lows – and this you know was was uh – was the end for a lot of people until it wasn’t and things bounce back right and continue on, and it’s gon na be the same thing we will bounce back and continue on. We may just have to wait a little bit longer right, so i mean look at this. I mean just to give you guys an example in case you don’t remember where you didn’t live through. It. Take a look at this when bitcoin went from 31 000 and then it rose up to about 41 000 right

At this point, there was a lot of hope, a lot of a lot of happiness and yeah bitcoin. Let’S go go right back up to 60 000. Well, unfortunately, didn’t do that. It went right back from 42 000 down to even a lower low at 28 000 right and then it had a few ups. But overall, even at this point, when it came back to 37 000, it went all the way back down to 29 000 again right. So if you thought this was easy to live through it, wasn’t it wasn’t right, but for a veteran like me and a lot of veterans out there uh, you know you know that this is really nothing compared to crypto winter, but for some of you guys, you Know this was hard very hard, especially people that bought an s64 000. I told you guys to stay strong bitcoin will recover we’re not gon na go down to ten thousand, like some people predicted at that time.

Right and those that continued to huddle or dc8 here or bought low right then saw this from 30 000 All the way to 69, 000.. So again, again, we’ve gone through it this year we will probably go through some more of this in 2022, but overall bitcoin is going to continue on right. So, if you’re, really like really scared and really wondering what’s going on, just know that this is this is something that bitcoin goes through. Sometimes there’s reasons for it. Sometimes bitcoin goes down because external factors like miners, getting kicked out of china or elon and others spreading

Yes, g fud or maybe right now, it’s tax, harvesting, tax loss, harvesting right, but regardless bitcoin continues forward because its fundamentals and adoption keeps on growing and that has not changed. Uh jacob asks is matic actually in price discovery. Even with this recent pullback. I don’t know what you mean by that it actually formed new highs recently, all the way up until i think yesterday too, so it’s not in price discovery. Usually i would say that it, it definitely has gained the momentum.

So if you’re talking about hazard, you know, is it trying to discover a new range or a new top or something? I i don’t think that’s the case. I think matic actually has a lot of momentum right now and, despite the fact, it pulled down a little bit more today, but i think if you just pay attention to what’s really going on in matic or polygons ecosystem, it keeps getting better. So i think it could definitely move a lot higher, so i don’t know if that answers that, hopefully it does uh. Let’S see power ledger is doing business with tada motors

India is open for power, Ledgers; Okay, that’s interesting! That’S interesting! Uh, defactor, 98!

Appreciate that Why does kadena have low liquidity? George, because it’s not a it’s not on a whole lot of exchanges? That’S why? But it will it’s early. It’S early stage project that have built a lot of momentum, but it’s still very early project, so they’re getting there in 2022.

Could be a big year for them um. Did you experience this wash tray rule with previous december? So you know what i don’t remember. So, let’s take a look. Okay, since we’ve got some time, let’s take a look at what happened back in all right here, so this was december uh going on to here so in 2020. This was in december, so well early december had a dip and then it kept going right.

I mean this is on a day chart, so there was times where maybe a down week here, but overall yeah like right here on the 27th, pretty close to where we are now right. So we did have a little bit of a drop off over here and that could be due to harvesting tax loss harvesting and then continue forward right. So that’s 20. 20! So let’s go to 2019

Ooh 2019: The big sell-off Wasn’T i mean that was in march, but let’s see in 2019, this was december. So starting from here you did have this and then end of december also had this and then january came back up so 2019. We definitely saw towards the latter half of december

We did see a little bit of a sell-off, so again could be due to tax loss harvesting, let’s just check for fun: 2018 well, 2018 december uh. This was november ready so and then december yeah a little bit more, but that it just came off the heel. So maybe maybe little little bits here or there little bits here there i would say um joe, have i heard of mulesi swap i don’t know. If that’s how you say it, uh muhly swap on cardano seems a bit sketchy supposedly has a working, dex yeah. I think it is sketchy not not in terms of if the project is sketchy, but i think that the way they’re doing decks is different than sunday swap so supposedly supposedly they had concurrency already solved and stuff like that, but i don’t, i think, they’re doing it As something differently so um, because the high market cap is ada worth holding on when matic and dot are so much smaller and they have price action – yes, yes, the answer is yes, you could just see it.

I mean you could see it even if something like you know like solana, for example, they were pretty big and they kept going finance coin kept going ethereum kept going right. The best is to be diversified. The best is to be diversified because uh, for example, polygon polygon, for like many many months of this year, it did not move while others did right now. It’S gotten momentum, but you never know right. Sometimes the momentum switches between some of these coins, um, tara and avalanche

You know they They had their stair-stepping moments too, but there’s times where they stopped too, while others moved so bottom line. Is you shouldn’t always chase the smaller cap projects? The best is just to be diversified and, have you know, hold all the ones that you do think have potential and the ones that you do like david? That is correct.

I haven’t looked in The ethereum classics in 2017 is still around Yes, yes, because there’s some people that refuse to give up on it. I guess for better and worse um thoughts on selling high to buy the dip only to get bird when price continues forward and dip comes, but still higher than when you cash out uh yeah. So, basically, what you’re saying is panic selling is is the wrong move?

Basically, so don’t panic sell uh all right? What are your thoughts on adoc’s new docs for ada? I i’ve heard of it. I’Ve been concerned more on sunday swap so i haven’t looked into 8x or the other decks that someone mentioned, but just to give you guys a you know, perspective dexas or amms have not been doing well all right. So if you look at something like unit swap sushi swap pancake swap quick swap i mean they

They haven’t really done that all that. Well so, even with these dexes, what they’re, really gon na help is cardano right, uh cardano started moving recently because there’s you know, hope of 2022 charles calming down in community and there’s more traction with the dexes right but uh. I think the texas will help cardano or ada more than they will help themselves at this point, but uh, let’s see what happens with them um. I hope you had a good vacation, though i did. I appreciate that, what’s your thoughts on defy land yeah, i’ve been meaning to look more into defy land

I know that’s built on top of solana, so that could be their de facto metaverse play it. It’S shaping, it’s sounding like it right, so it could be an interesting play. It could i mean every single chain is having their own metaverse play right. Obviously you have decentralized sandbox and ethereum, but you have deep, elena solana and tara has terra world and um. What is that cardano supposed to have pavia

Some of these are very early stages, but they’re building, they’re building them out for sure you share your thoughts for on harmony for 2022. Harmony is just it’s a project that i’ll continue to support, because i think they’re they’re doing good they’re doing good. They made substantial gains in 2021, um substantial gains and their growing ecosystem is still growing, and that’s what you want to see right, uh the thing that will really kill these projects is, if somehow they can’t, i guess, grow anymore. They can’t attract dap makers and that’s not the case. 2021 is definitely the year of l ones, so the guys like harmony and phantom and, of course, solana and avalanche and tara and elrond you can

You could throw in hedera in there right and of course, ethereum 2021 has definitely been the growth year for l1, and i i think it’s just it’s just begun. So 2022 is we’re gon na see more of that, but i think in 2022 we’re gon na see. Maybe possibly um like meta versus and play turn games get more popular, but still l ones will still be thriving and growing all right. I think that’s it. I’M gon na go get some lunch here.

What do you think about pie, network and don’t know too much about it all right, guys overall, sending a lot of fear, but take a step back guys. You know know that bitcoin is not actually worse off right now than the beginning of the month. All right! We’Re still stuck in this channel, yes, i know it’s a little disappointing that we didn’t shoot above 52 000 and go beyond right. I know that, but overall, it’s not any worse than before, even though today’s chat makes it seem like it is, but i think the reason right now, at least from yesterday to the day and maybe going forward until the 31st

We may see more sideways movement or maybe a little bit more weakness because of tax loss harvesting, because a lot of people made substantial amounts of money in 2021 and they’re looking to offset that with capital losses and with the help of wash trade rule. You’Re able to do that crypto is one of the only investments out there that you can still do this with, because this loophole has not been closed, at least in the us. I don’t know about other countries. So and again i’m not a tax advisor. I’M not advising you to do this.

I’M just saying this could be going on and uh and if you do want to take advantage of it, seek tax help, seek professional help all right guys that is it smash it. A like subscribe to the channel i’ll, see you guys tonight. 8, 30 p. M central standard time. All right have a good one guys take care bye,

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