I can really not see it going below 30 000. yeah, that’s kind of what i think, but at a high level I’m not doing the analysis like you are, but it seems like there’s a strong support there as bitcoin continues to maintain its unsteady price movements. The question on many people’s lips is: have we seen a top for this cycle or not? This question is a very pertinent one, because it would renew people’s trust in models and analysts like plan b and willie wu, who believe we are yet to see a top for this cycle. It would also provide more relevant data that will indicate the bottom for the cycle, though many analysts and leading institutional investors have told people to hold on for dear life.
It is quite difficult for many retail investors not to panic in such troubling times. In a January 12 interview with jay Goode anonymous bitcoin analyst plan b answers some of the questions that have been on everyone’s lips in the past week. Welcome to savvy finance. This video examines what plan b feels about the top issues in the bitcoin space. In recent times, in a January 12 interview plan b shares his thoughts about what the top will be for the cycle, whether or not we have seen the bottom already his failed prediction and the truth behind lengthening cycles.
Please watch the video to the end, so you do not miss any of the important price indicators that plan b reveals in his interview. If you have not done so remember to click the like button subscribe to the channel and turn on post notifications enjoy the video. Like many other bitcoin investors, you have probably been worrying about the digital assets, continuous decline since late 2021. The threat of regulatory sanctions has also heightened fear and panic in the space. Many people are asking if the decline will continue or if we have already seen a bitcoin bottom for this cycle.
According to plan b, there are some indicators that suggest bitcoin could further bottom out to twenty four thousand or even nineteen thousand dollars. The pseudonyms analyst explains that the two hundred moving week average for the coin is currently around nineteen thousand twenty thousand dollars. If bitcoin maintains its tradition of not falling below the average plan b, says, its price will not fall below nineteen thousand dollars, but if sixty nine thousand dollars is the top for the cycle and bitcoin has another eighty percent downtrend, then the asset can plunge to even Lower depths the realized cap for this month is another indicator that plan b is considering. He explains that if this is to be considered, the bottom could be around 24 000
Above all, plan b agrees that 30 000 has proven to be a great support line as it endured the mining ban in 2021. As a result, he believes bitcoin will not go below 30 000.
Where do you think the bottom might be in this, because i think it’s probably what we saw last year if it doesn’t go much further, it seems like 30 000 is a pretty strong, uh support level at this point, what do you think could be a bottom For this cycle, yeah yeah – it’s it’s very – it has nothing to do again with the stock to flow model. Of course, just my personal opinion, it’s more like ta, almost yeah yeah, almost ta, and of course i did try to do that with the floor model which epically failed in November and December. So i throw that away but yeah. One thing i look at for bottoms is 200 week moving averages and i i think that’s at around 20 19 000 at the moment, so bitcoin has never gone uh. A monthly close has never never had a monthly close below the total week moving average.
So that can be seen as a as a bottom, but it’s interesting, so my buddy might be honest, something with his 20 number yeah yeah yeah yeah, but it’s very very low right. So that’s like a short moment and it’s going to bounce yeah yeah exactly that. Would be a perfect moment to buy, but then there’s the uh realized cap, the realized price uh from you. Can you can do a 200 a week, moving average or or or another a time interval, but but then not equally weighted but weighted with how much bitcoins were bought in that month or or period and then weighed that against the price? So you can weigh the price based on how much bitcoins were traded at that price, and then you get a realized cap, a realized price, and that is much higher than the 200 week moving moving average, and so that’s a much.
What is that? Currently? It is 24 000. I guess and depends on 24 000 based on the price, every bitcoin, every single bitcoin of the 18.9 bitcoins out there when they last transacted, but if you make that into that, that number is heavily skewed by the lost bitcoins and the satoshi.
The first million satoshi coins, so if you narrow the win, though down to say also 200 uh weeks or less, that number goes up significantly to in the 30. 40 000 range, depending on window, really not see it going below. 30 000.
If you are one of the people that believe that plan b is finished because of the failure of some of his predictions in 2021, the analyst says you should blame the china mining ban. Instead, he explains that the ban seriously affected bitcoin prices in 2021.
Some of its effects we can still see today, listen to plan, b’s explanation on why his model failed. So what look year review 2021 um? What surprised you the most and um? What do you think the biggest catalyst there’s a bunch, but what’s the biggest catalyst for us not getting to a hundred thousand plus? What do you think happened?
Last year yeah, i guess the main event was uh china ban of uh mining. It yeah scared all the uh miners out of china. China has always been a very had a dominant position in bitcoin because um because of the mining, because half of the bitcoin mining was there, it was always perceived as a as a as a risk as a threat yeah. So now they’re back in one attack yeah. So the actual threat and fear became reality and and yes, the hash rate went down 50 and then it went up to it started to move up two years, two months later, uh to the new all-time high right now and all the miners had moved their coins Or their their miners to kazakhstan and the the neighbors have issues right now too.
Actually, right with the power, yeah yeah, big issues, big issues, but but most of the miners also went to the united states, of course, texas and the flare gas and et cetera uh, because kazakhstan, the the turbulence we see there right now, is not impacting the hash Rate too much so, but that that was a big thing and and together with it the the price went down, but because all the miners, of course, uh uh gone and the hash rate gone created a risk, will it come back? Will china take over the the hardware and uh 5100 attack the network, or something and and the miners of course had to relocate the hardware and that cost money, so they had to sell all the bitcoins um they had, or some some had to do, that large Selling – and so that was a major surprise, because that that came for me at a at a bad moment, because that was espec. That was exactly the moment that uh bitcoin was rising and rising to the stock to flow uh levels of a hundred thousand and then all of a sudden bang we’re back at uh. Where are we now about 40, something and um yeah? So so that that was the biggest surprise to me, another issue that has been making the waves is lengthening cycles.
Many top investors and analysts have tried to justify the unexpected price movements by explaining that this cycle is longer than usual. Plan b is not convinced that the cycle has lengthened, but everything will depend on whether we have seen the top for this cycle or not. This is because lengthening cycles are usually characterized by increasingly lower tops and reduced volatility compared to the last cycle’s top of twenty thousand dollars. Sixty nine thousand dollars will be low, which might indicate that this cycle is indeed longer than usual, but plan b needs more evidence to believe in lengthening cycles. Let’S listen to the institutional investors.
Explanation on the topic. Do you believe in the bitcoin lengthening cycle theory yeah? I talked with ben cohen about that in in very much detail, definitions of what that is so so he’s very much into that lengthening cycle and diminishing returns. I think i always thought that is like the time model. The logarithmic model that that nice curve that that’s also sometimes used as the demand part versus the soccer floor is the supply part uh, but it’s much lower than, but what he?
What i learned from that interview was that lengthening cycles and diminishing returns. You look. You look at the top. The the market tops you look only at the market tops where i look at averages right. I look at the regression line, the averages, so so he looks at market tops and yeah, so lengthening cycles mean means that the top is later every cycle and right now it seems like if this was the top the 69.
It was at the same location as uh 2017
So it’s not really lengthening if it. If the top is not in it will be here in this year, for example, in the summer, then we have, according to that definition, lengthening cycles, yeah and and diminishing returns same thing, so the tops plenty if relatively tend to be relatively lower each cycle, so so 2017 was lower at a lower top than 2013, and now, if 69 was the top, we had a lower top uh this time around. Of course, if we go higher, this is my theory of contracting the keger yeah yeah yeah, but but but i do not well. I should say that different, i’m not that much interested in the tops and the bottoms, because those are one-day events. I can’t buy or sell large large positions uh in a day, so so i’m i’m much more focused on the average plateau.
Where we like the 50 000 of last year, uh you could have bought and sell, sold uh a lot of money on those levels. So yeah, where the exact top is where the exact bottom is. Actually i i don’t really care and um, but i should say the general thought that the lengthening cycle, guys and diminishing return guys have is that the volatility as the market grows? The market cap grows, the volatility goes down. I don’t think that necessarily is the case uh with bitcoin.
Why do you think that yeah explain yeah because, like i said before, uh i think volatility is suppressed in most markets by the quantitative easing by the central banks by okay? This is outside money, yeah and and defaults are not permitted, so a company can will be saved by uh by qe money and and not not letting uh not being allowed to to default. So so, where does the validity volatility go? And bitcoin is one of the last places on earth where volatility can yeah can can exist, and i think it if you look at option markets they for sure do not foresee lower volatility, uh uh in the next 12 months, so uh. I guess the market.
Will the bitcoin price will behave, the distribution of bitcoin prices will be non-normal power, law distribution like with large uh volatility and and actually without a clear standard, deviation or variance uh, so so that yeah that’s a special part of of math or statistics. If you will, with which also ties nicely into the exponential growth theories, that that it’s a non-normal distributed, returns, market and and volatility plays a really large role and it yeah, i guess the volatility will will stay and um, but maybe i’m wrong. So it’s very interesting and important to keep watching the implied volatilities from the option markets, because that’s where volatility is traded directly and those markets do not indicate any decrease of volatility in the next 12 months. The institutional investor also had some optimistic words for his 1.7 million twitter followers shortly after prices improved slightly on january 12.
Plan b’s tweet reads: the bounce will be epic. The graph that accompanies the tweet shows a slight improvement in prices, as bitcoin once again enters the 40 000 region after days of uncertainty shortly after the tweet plan b, also retweets, this tweet, showing a bull market volatility. Comparison graph see how the coin made such great comebacks after bottoming out in the other cycles. If a similar thing happens, bitcoin may finally be on its way to pre-china ban levels poised to hit the one hundred thousand dollar mark. Did you enjoy this video?
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