With the market currently playing out some very generous pullbacks, it is time to be doing our homework and discovering, where are the likely probabilistic bouncy areas with that said, welcome back to Elio trey’s channel, I’m your host crown again today and a bit of an evolution of These videos, as i want to address something, that’s been highly requested, which is essentially talking about where I’d be interested in playing bounces or perhaps even buying an asset for potentially the long term. Now it goes without saying that this is not finite device. I’M not a financial advisor, however, and i should also say that trading is rather risky. In fact, it’s incredibly risky, most people lose trading anyways. More importantly with that and in the context of these videos, i want to be doing this in the best way possible.
So I’ll be talking about specifically the daily time frame areas that i believe there is a high probability for at minimum, a bounce and potentially even a you, know, a major low and as we bring it forwards, i am going to dissect this into two areas. Essentially, one being a more aggressive area to be looking for these bounces and two, a more conservative area, which is are exactly as they sound now when we talk about these probabilistic bounce areas, that is not to say that these are full on reversals back on to You know all-time highs or infinity or whatever you know the the clickbait of the day is you know, but more importantly, they just offer up an edge for a nice bounce area which can be typically uh traded. In my experience, however, again not financial advice here, all right cool, so, let’s start it out with bitcoin as always. The reason why we started with bitcoin is because bitcoin generally judges the rest of the market’s direction. So it’s a good one to be going off of and there’s some very obvious levels here, funnily enough, actually in the full hour, and what I’m going to do right here is I’m actually going to go over to our regular charts, we’re going to try this one Out, very, very simply so what I’m going to do is i am going to try out the range highs.
That’s going to be right here, I’m going to try out the daily range lows. It’s going to be right here. Obviously, and then we have the midpoint of the range, which is our last higher low on our medium time frames. That’s going to be right here at just above 48, 000 territory. So the way that i look at this is that as long as bitcoin is, of course, in an uptrend on the short and medium term, time frames, which is denoted by remaining above this pivot point right here.
I do look at well higher lows as playable for bounces and potentially even a trend. Trade problem is trending, moves are all stifled by our range highs at 52, 000 intel closed above on a higher time frame, specifically no less than a daily. If you want to be conservative, if you’re more aggressive could probably use a four hour at which point you know probably looking at moves back up towards 56 to 58 000 somewhere around there to be fair, okay cool. So if you are more aggressive within this region right here and you are leaning into uh your belief that bitcoin has essentially put in the lows already well you’re, probably looking at the current area for bitcoin as a bit of a value area. In this case, because you are right around the 618 fibonacci retracement and it would still be on a higher low, as we have not taken out critically the 48 100 region right here.
So what does that essentially align with? Do you have an opportunity for a bounce within this region right here? Yes, you do where it could. Bounce targets be a backup towards anywhere. Around 50 000 is completely fair game.
However, if you are more conservative, there are a few things to be aware of right here. So in the last 24 hours we did see, bitcoin reject the range highs, not necessarily a bullish thing to be doing also confirming some hidden bearish divergence potential as well, and what i would say is he is, if you are conservative and you do see any sort Of a four-hour closure even below our current wicklow at 48 500, i would effectively say that this range is going to be resolved. You will see the daily play out and at minimum looking at a pullback down towards the low forty, seven thousand dollar territory, perhaps even as low down as uh low forty six thousand dollar territory. That would be my conservative area to be uh interested in buying um for potentially for potentially even a long-term position to be fair, but at minimum a balance very likely back up into the mid 48’s, maybe even 49 000 territory. So i do look at that as tradable myself all right.
So why is that all relevant again, because whatever direction bitcoin goes, the rest of the mark’s, probably gon na go alongside with it, so a bitcoin does go for that. More aggressive higher low well can probably be more aggressive on the other assets that we’ll look at in a second here. So let’s move on to ethereum ethereum rejected one two three four five times at our 41 30ish region right here, that is again a good uh. A good example of why we do wait for confirmation on a closing basis above the range highs, and in this case we are, of course seeing ethereum come back down. So where would i be looking for on ethereum in order to get interested into playing a bit of a bouncy?
Well, i’m looking somewhere around here. Why is that that, being between about 37 50 to 3800 or so – and why is that? That is because it comes in from our prior wake range lows in this area right here also a retest of the falling wedge, and if you go the extra mile we do see the 618 fibonacci retracement around that region as well. If i actually do it properly, it’s going to come in exactly at 32. Sorry 3800 right there!
So a bit of a conservative play yes, but i would be looking for balances within this region very likely back up somewhere around 3 900 minimum. And, of course, if you are bullish, while you’re just looking at that, as you know, another higher low before going to the moon and infinity anyways, moving on to symbol a v a x, this one’s rather interesting right here, i do think that an aggressive estimate of A higher low could very easily come in at 110.
That was our pullback target from yesterday. We have thus met it so well after a bit of that all good, i suppose. So, if you are aggressive, you actually are looking at this on that 110 tick as the higher low again exactly as we spoke about yesterday.
Would confirm it as a higher low popping back above the 120ish region and could probably front run a range, a range resolution to the upside back up to prior highs. After that, to be fair now, let’s say that this current potential higher load does not work out. Well, which, by the way, is that the 618 uh bearish tradesmen right there. Well, where would i be looking for and how would i know that doesn’t work out? I would be looking for a four hour closure below our current wick lows at 107 and a half, and i would be looking for moves at minimum down to 100 and very likely a bounce around that region.
Uh again do not confuse balance with reversal. We’Re just talking about tradable bounces, most likely from a probabilistic standpoint. It’S also your midpoint of the range just a general rule and below there. Well, you got some big problems, probably looking at big bad moves back down somewhere below 90 bucks, actually anyways. Let’S move on to the next one, everyone’s favorite one to make fun of – i guess but uh.
This is cardano an interesting one right here. If you are aggressive, you’re, actually very likely. Looking at this move down to the low 140s as your next higher low, does it look super strong to me? Well, my opinion does not need to be stated here. What would essentially uh validate bullish continuation on this one, any sort of a daily closure above 1.
8, with targets back up towards your prior range highs from early december, which we will put in right here at about 175? Let’S say now with that said: if we do see this more aggressive, higher low fail, which again would be about 140 or so so any sort of a four-hour closure below there, then i would be more conservatively looking for some nice balance areas and potential buy areas Somewhere down around the low 130s moving on to terra luna, this one’s very interesting as well, very aggressive here too technically speaking, still has higher lows on the full hour. But again, if bitcoin trades down here, we’re very likely going to find the next real bounce area. At about 80, that’s a big one if 80 is lost on a higher timeframe closure. I am looking more conservatively towards the mid 60s area for a very like for a very strong bounce.
Most likely this has been one of the better actors. Long term here so understand the order of operations and again the current potential low that it’s putting in right here, that’ll be negated with any sort of a four hour closure below eighty nine dollars, even on even a four hour. So that is more aggressive one right. There, so that is why we’re going down to a lower time frame, moving on to symbol, uh dot and apologies on the very loud alerts in the background, anyways uh symbol, dot again gets rejected at our range highs. Okay, that’s to be expected, you know and or it’s a more likely thing to be happening.
So where are we looking for on a potential aggressive low? Well, if you are aggressive you’re actually looking right here, does it look strong? No, if bitcoin trades down, would you expect it to hold? Also, no, where would a more conservative estimate be on your next potential higher low somewhere right around here at about your 26 and a half dollar-ish number? And i would be looking for bounces until you see any sort of closures above 31 and a half really not wise, in my experience, to be looking for any sort of major breakouts in this case uh up towards the well 38 to 39 dollar regions.
Okay, let’s move on to the next one symbol: c: r, o my larp line’s still in there, but funnily enough they’re still working. So that’s good! I think we charted this one here last like a few days ago, or something like that anyways again test. Your range highs very likely to pull back from your range highs. That is why we operate on closing base seas.
No closures above 67 cents does imply well at minimum. We come down to the mid the median of the range at 58 cents. That is the more aggressive uh higher low region. Do i think that it holds again. My opinion is not necessary.
How will you know that it does not hold full hour closure below the last four hour? Low is 58 sorry, 57.5 cents in this case, and i would be looking for this one and more conservatively and what i think is a little bit more likely to be honest with you as well, for a move somewhere back down around low 50 cents. That is where i would be looking for a much stronger bounce, most likely and again, you know with all these it’s not to say that they can’t go lower. It’S just.
It offers up a more defined edge and, in this case, coming down below these regions allows you to risk less. If you do take on risk during these uh. During this you know 51 to 52 or more, like 52, to 54 cent test right there. It allows you to take on less risk because, in order to invalidate that as a potential bounce and maybe even reversal setup, you only have to wait until you take out the range lows in this case: that’s about 50 cents, just below 50 cents to be fair. So, ultimately it is, you know from the way that i look at things and the way that i judge things a good setup, because in order to figure out, if the trade is not going to work out, you risk a lot less than let’s say longing from This area right here, hoping and praying that this is the higher low.
So that is the advantage of being a little more conservative. You can have uh. Well, you can have better entries. Less risk involved with the position doesn’t mean that it’s not guaranteed or to work out, or it doesn’t mean that it is guaranteed to work out more importantly, um. But it comes at the risk of maybe not getting in your position to begin with, as well being more conservative does mean that you might be waiting for something that does not happen so again.
Wrapping up bitcoin right here, which very likely bleeds into the rest of the market. Any sort of a four hour closure below our current wick lows very likely does be get that next. Continuation down to the more conservative area somewhere around 47 000, give or take some from that number and what would invalidate this as essentially a higher low setup for the long term? Well. 45.
500 on a daily closing basis below there. Bitcoin has a lot more problems than are worth talking about on a video like this, so i will shut this one off at that. I’M curious to see how this one goes. Does all that make sense? Does all that kind of flow?
Well again, i want to differentiate things into aggressiveness and conservativeness and talk about the pros and cons with that, there’s, no right or wrong way. It’S only right or wrong for you based off of your trading preferences or investment preferences. So hopefully, that was in some way helpful, looking forward to the feedback on a video like this, take care and i’ll see you in the next one.