Basically what it is because bitcoin is just trending between this 46 000 level and this 49 000 level. Every time it gets to 49 000. We all believe it’s gon na break out and every time it gets to 46 000.
We all believe it’s going to go down. So, today, being friday, we have a panel of experts who are going to tell us what they think. Bitcoin is going to do for the rest of the year. There’S only two weeks left of the year and then we’re going to look at what bitcoin is going to do in the new year. We’Re also going to look at the biggest trends that these guys are expecting for 2022, because today is friday and on fridays we have our big banter circuit class is in session.
Let’s get this done. Make calls on the old coins for the bull market. Height, he’s all about the dj baby, van Damme, the banter fam. Could he kick it? Yes, he can.
Can he get? Yes, he can crypto. Man ran he’s all about, what have they done to my son? I don’t know what have they done to my son?
I’M gonna have a chat to them. I’M gonna chat to the the team are crazy, crazy, crazy, banter fan banter film. Welcome back welcome back I’m Krypto man run. This is my last banter with you for this year and it’s going to be an unbelievable, unbelievable, unbelievable banter. So so so so, if you’re new to the channel subscribe to the channel join the banter fam, there are so many advantages of being part of the banter fam.
If you’re new subscribe, if you’ve been here for a while, like this video and get this content out there, it is going to be a massive massive massive show before we do, though, before we do get to the show today, i do want to say that the Banter bags are growing every single day and remember. The banter bags are a bunch of tokens that we put into an address for you guys when we get to 700 000 subscribers we’re going to give those bags away to the community, I’m actually going to start giving away some of those giveaways today. So we’ll start giving away the banter bags today we’ll start choosing the winner. When we get to 5 000 likes, then we start giving away the banter bags. We also have a new token in the banter bags and that is a token called crypto fight club.
So this is a new token. We got three thousand dollars. They gave us three thousand dollars of audio tokens at two cents uh and they put those into the banter bags uh they also d. This um was a polka start audio and they raised 250 000. In a matter of minutes, so this one should be unbelievable.
Another little addition into our banter bags. Uh we’ll choose the first banter bags winner today. What do you say guys? Yes, yes, come on last day of the year last last banter of the year we’ve got to do it, we’ve got to do it, we got to do it um. Also, if you didn’t watch our show earlier today, you should go and watch it, because i showed you guys how you can make money crypto from an how you can get tokens from an a grade.
Crypto project in the most addictive way possible for free. So you have fun and you get free tokens just for using the platforms. Here’s how it works. For those of you who didn’t watch. There is a social media platform that has just launched it’s decentralized, it’s called BBS, it looks like reddit and it feels like reddit.
The only thing is that every single poster is an NFT and when people post effectively you can buy or you can bid on their nfts. So i can take this nft from a someone who has and i can bid over here for the nft and if i bid for the nft from now until the end of time, i get revenue every time that that post is accessed or engaged with. And so what they call it is they call it engagement, mining and specifically, what they’ve done is they’ve given two and a half percent of the tokens to early adopters and early engagement miners, which is why i’m bringing this to you guys.
Now we have uh three channels on vbs we have bbs dot market forward, slash banter, that is the banter one um. We also, then have a bbs market, for it says, charts and that’s the one for charting and the last one that we have is uh bbs dot market forward, slash um c gaming, which is our crypto gaming forum, and you can see that i started this this Morning with you guys, this account’s already got 156 dollars worth of tokens um and this account’s got 100 worth of tokens and that’s just because i’ve been interacting with and buying and selling other people’s uh nft posts.
On this thing, if you haven’t checked it out check it out, it’s free um, you don’t have to connect, you don’t need a meta mask, you don’t have to put in any money, there’s no gas fees. You just have to interact and because you’re interacting so early you’re going to get tokens you’re going to get free tokens in this thing, that’s a guarantee. It’s a guaranteed free token giveaway for people to engage early all right. Let’s do it do it, do it trust me, do it do it, do it, let’s look at the markets and let’s get this show on the road. I guess the name of the game.
The name of the game is sideways. It’s just sideways, it’s boring and it’s sideways, even the biggest names in the game, so people like will clement comes out and says two of these charts have me feeling cautious and two of these charts have me feeling optimistic.
I mean that’s not really what you want here, like you’re, looking at four charts, the unchained cost basis, the uh, the sopr, the supply shock ratio and open interest dominance and he’s saying well, two of them make me feel positive and two of them make me feel Negative and then you’ve got suzu who says it’s hard to be bearish when the BTC and e-supply and exchanges is going to fresh lows. Solunavax, that’s a good token. That’s actually, that’s my token of the year is so lunavex.
That’s my 2021 token of the year is selenavax solenovex, showing majestic strength. Large acid allocators in the world aligned with crypto thesis, tourists and short-term oriented investors are flashed out and then you’ve got a whole lot of tethers sitting on exchanges. In fact, the highest that it’s been in over six months, which kind of feels like people are ready to press the trigger? That’s it question is that why then is bitcoin moving sideways? Has it got something to do with the inflation narrative and if we look at the inflation narrative, the u.
markets, the dow jones down to 119 points, which is point six percent uh you’ve got the u.s tech futures down another one percent. Today. Is this all about inflation and curbing inflation? Well, the truth is, i don’t know, but we do have three experts right here with us today for our friday banter, who do know and we’re going to bring them on.
So we’ve got our good friend vinnie. Welcome back bro, thanks ryan good to be here as always good and we’ve got jose from delphi, jose, welcome, bro, hey guys good to be here, and then we’ve got one guest who is already uh back at mcdonald’s, he’s already he’s given up thrown in the tile. His name is daniel cester.
You probably all know him from abracadabra from magic internet money from wonderland and from all the other projects he’s involved in and here he is, but he’s working back at mcdonald’s. Welcome man, hello, hello, frogs hi, everyone, hello, frogs, hello, everyone, I’m gonna I’m actually gonna start with you danielle, because I asked you where what do you think uh the market’s gonna do in the next month, just as we logged on to this on To this uh uh session – and you said to me, you said something quite interesting to me: do you remember what you said yeah so, first of all, I’m tired of one day ordering a big mac and the other day I’m eating a steak like this thing chopping, Like this is not very healthy for me, but i have this this feeling that um this is the last job like it’s.
The last opportunity chop usually means that a lot of leverage positions get washed out. So it means that people that are here for just speculating and are not investor, get tracked very easily, especially in these moves because they tend to leverage or over leverage. And you can see that the borrowing rates are going down. There is not so much leverage in the market, but still we are holding a very high uh price of bitcoin like we don’t have to forget that we have a bitcoin at 46 000. Let’S remember where we was last year: first, like we were, we were not definitely even at all-time high right at this time, so we are talking about a very positive year um.
Additionally, I have been looking a lot on inflation and the inflation is pretty much done and calculated by the consumer index. So every country is a little bit different in how it calculates this consumer basket index. But if you look at the commodities and like coffee grain, like rice prices and all of this worldwide, we have, we have seen that has risen by a lot like, for example, copper, copper, all things that materials that, at the end of the day, are used to Create this basic consumer index products right, but the consumer index product has not risen more than five percent, which is interesting. So i we never seen this before and there is a world teases that the dollar cannot collapse like the world is reliant on the dollar and basically the bombs of the united states of America. Keep the inflation away sort of thing.
But this has been reflecting into the stock market, and i would i would argue that the s p, 500 and the Nasdaq and the rise that we had during the last year. That has been quite quite high. In reality. It’s not so high because i think the inflation is higher than that. So i mean the.
If you look at. If you look at the the u’s stock market uh the year stomach had up, i think 100 in the in the last year, I’m just going to try and get it for us here, but i think it’s about 100 in in the last year. Uh. Let me just try and refresh it but yeah.
What i was trying to say is that we tend to price in, like investors tend to pricing inflation before the data, because they overlook at the market in a more broader way right, so they have been buying and trying to protect uh their us dollar value. Over with stocks um and, on the other hand, bitcoin, which is a scar supply asset, which is a very strong brand, if you think about it, like it’s the number one brand, absolutely in the crypto space, because it has the largest holders, the largest amount of no People know bitcoin everywhere in the world right uh has not been performing as it should be right. So i think that yeah, but why do you think? Why do you think it’s going to change tomorrow, because i want to try and understand? I think we all know the thesis for an inflation thesis and everything else, but why do you think it’s going to change tomorrow?
Oh because i think that we want to see like a closing of the week – and this is like the last closing of the week for uh for a lot of traders, and the Friday is usually like the the last day in which i was expecting. We were going down to be honest yesterday i was telling my friends that they have orders around in between forty six thousand to forty four thousand five hundred uh buying and uh. Next week we just start uh being positive again like. Let’s not forget the people takes profit like everybody. This year has been like a little bit into all the corona mode, um like if you look at families, for example, have been saving money all year, even though, like there has been so much printing of money everywhere.
So my thesis is that people were very conservative for a while because we didn’t know what was going to happen about corona about all the global global situations. So families and in general people have been saving money. But now it’s time to spend money and the inflation will pick up with the spending, because if you don’t spend the money that has been printed, then the inflation doesn’t come in, but the investors will still buy the iron ore or the the copper or the voodoo Dan, I want to speak a lot about inflation, we’re going to bring it up in a few minutes. I just want to get a thesis from the other guys quickly before we carry on Vinnie. What’s your thesis between now and say the end of year and maybe into the first quarter of next year, um, so the global, the global macro situation is still playing out.
I mean the fed’s taping back the bond buying right now and then they’re threatening rate hikes. Next year, the reason this isn’t is is part of the cryptos. You know conversation right now is that there’s still a strong correlation between the financial markets and the crypto markets for now and the reason for that is that a lot of excess liquidity when people have it they go, you know they go buy, crypto and uh. There’S there’s obviously a movement into crypto, but fundamentally there will be a dislocation between these two over time. For a fundamental reason, inflation on a global scale is much higher than being reported, which you know like.
We know this and so governments around the world because of covert, have been printing money everywhere in the world to strip. You know to basically prevent there’s actually two reasons. One is obviously, the economies are being shut down because of cover to a larger degree, and but the second thing is that they can’t afford their currencies to get stronger than the dollar either. So when the u.s is printing money, they’ve got to follow suit and do something similar.
And the reason for that is that if the x, if the? U S dollar gets too weak. You can’t export to the us if you’re, a European car manufacturer and the dollar depreciates, you know 10 to 15. You can’t sell your car for more us dollars. You got to keep the same price in dollars, but now you’re earning less and you’re, actually looking a little bit weaker uh in terms of financially.
So these are the problems that it’s a very complex picture. Now, let me get to the point. The point is this: macro situation is going to play out and you’re going to have a bit of a decoupling between the crypto markets and the financial markets in the next 12 months, especially as we’re looking at probably one to two rate hikes. Although the fed’s threatening three, but why the question why? The reason is exactly it’s exactly because, like all all the crypto, all the major crypto so so just take a step.
Back 90 of crypto market cap sits in the top 10 or 15 or whatever. It is. Okay, top 20 Most of it’s there and most of those coins are actually pretty good. Quality coins, uh and bitcoin Ethereum obviously holds the lion’s share of bitcoin Ethereum Solana uh holds the majority of it, so so you can take out the speculative part of it. Um the coins.
Those coins have fixed supply unit like and even even, if uh Ethereum, you know, doesn’t, it doesn’t become fixed supply and storage input, inflation, it’s a very low rate of inflation. Now you contrast that to literally 180 plus countries in the world that keep printing money. What’s going to happen, eventually, this pig is going to break and the financial markets and crypto markets go two different ways with the financial markets. You just keep printing money, but the crypto markets. You cannot keep printing crypto.
So what happens? Price rises simple as that? Okay, so i understand this whole inflation thesis, i think, we’re all too obsessed with this inflation thesis. I think that the whole crypto world has become. They have become a bunch of economists, so we’re all speculating about what the fed’s going to do and, to be honest, when i think about it, the only real token that should be affected by what the fed’s going to do is bitcoin, because that is a direct Correlation to inflation and printing money and too much money supply bitcoin is made as that store of value.
But then i look at things like Ethereum and i look at things like Luna and I look at things like avalanche and that, for me, is a venture capital investment into technology. That’s going to absolutely change the world. Okay, so you’ve got. Why do those have to be correlated to an inflation game? Why are we all playing economists, david sacks said it very smartly?
This week he said, investors are spending too much time worrying about the fed and the Washington, narrative and they’re, forgetting that what they’re actually investing in is technologies that are about to change the world and that really isn’t that affected by the the market cycle. The fed has to do what it has to do to slow down the economy slightly, because inflation is running rampantly out of control right well, so so Ron, it’s there’s a bit of a the the issue here is that, like, for example, bitcoin is the major trading Pair the major non-us dollar trading pair for Ethereum and other cryptos, so bitcoin weakness, basically trickles down into the entire crypto ecosystem and then and all the bots that are running. Basically, you know. Market makers and bots basically are being these movements back and forth. So you’ve got a lot of liquidity running across all the bitcoin trading pairs out there.
So bitcoin recruitment really means weakness across crypto, regardless of the fact of the technologies it doesn’t matter. The financial side of the crypto markets means these trading pairs, provide liquidity and when liquidity dries up in bitcoin or or it goes down bitcoin it affects everything else is a cascading impact and that’s that’s the reason why so you can’t say I mean I agree with Sax, but it’s all tied to bitcoin, i guarantee you right now, if bitcoin dumped 30k tomorrow everything dumps with it. We all know this and in some cases most cases everything else will dump at a higher percentage. The beta is higher, so i get that yeah. I get that so so it’s linked okay and and it’s linked, because the on-ramp for crypt for fiat into crypto is more than the bitcoin dominance ratio.
So if you look at bitcoin dominance at 43, I guarantee you more than 43 of every dollar going into crypto worldwide. Right now is bitcoin, and that’s kind of where it is. Is that what’s your thesis for the rest of this year in the beginning of next year, um, i don’t really have like a great.
I don’t think i have a great short term take because i just don’t. I just don’t really care that much about about about the short-term price movement, like i think the macro stuff again, I’m not a I’m, not a macro investor but like I dug into it because, as you said, everyone has to be a macro investor these days and My my sort of conclusion is: they have to keep increasing the money supply right.
There’s like no way to get rid of this debt um, like the only other way, is deflation, which would be painful for everyone and arguably impossible right and with demographics and and like the debt, that’s coming in, and healthcare obligations and all this stuff, it’s just impossible For them not to keep inflating and keep and keep uh keep printing more money, and so uh number go up. I think for for everything else that that makes sense, especially like bitcoin and also like venture capital stuff that has cash flows far in the future. Um people have to go further out on the risk curve and I think, like there’s, no better place to be than crypto for me in in my mind, yeah we’ve been here since the since the previous bubble, like in 2017, we’re in a completely different place right, Like looking around there, there was just so much crap out there, like all the there was a lot of vaporware projects. Now we have like scalable layer ones. We have like layer twos coming online with stark wear and stuff, like that.
We have so many legit builders in the space people like Justin khan uh, coming back into entrepreneurship, to to start NFC marketplaces on Solana like everyone, we we we talk to from the traditional world wants exposure it wants to build stuff like web3, is capturing everyone’s imagination. I just i just think like um, focusing on the on the short term. Prices is just like a waste of time when you can kind of be be looking at the tech and what’s happening and all that’s being built exactly so. Let’S put aside, let’s put aside the um macro economic discussion, because i think between the four of us, no one here is an economist and what we know that the fed is probably going to be responsible in their actions. I don’t know either right, like, like economists, know less than everyone else that you see like inflation’s, transitory, the pleasure’s not going to happen krugman like they’re the worst.
They have no skin in the game. So it’s just like yeah yeah, but I mean so: let’s not be economist and say we don’t really care about the macro economy. We’ve got to assume that the macroeconomy is going to keep pumping.
We don’t think that the fed is going to cause any major corrections. Money is going to keep being printed.
Let’s look beyond that and actually be tech investors uh for for now, and i guess that suzu said it very well, he said uh solunavax is showing uh majestic growth. So again, i guess uh that that that’s saying that talks to all of us, but the one thing that i’ve really seen is this avalanche narrative, which is taking off it seems like like almost like avalanche, is the. What do you call it? The salina, the new celina, in terms of where, where the the retail investors are flying, i picked up uh an article here which i think is pretty interesting. It says um it comes from a guy called sapien.
It says it signs l1 number go up, but who’s actually gaining market share here. Bsc is beating tvl to avex, and celina avex in particular is racing ahead. Its tvlc is nearly 50 in the last 30 days. Um. The article goes on talks about uh talks about all of this shows the total value luck chose the performance of the dexes.
What is it about avalanche? That’S got everybody flying towards avalanche now, jose. I don’t know if you want to take that. I know. Delphi have been talking about it quite a bit.
Yeah sure i mean that that chart uh misses out luna, which is actually the third uh biggest by by tvl, which is a pretty important. Like a mission i mean we’re we’re long, avax we’re along celina luna. So we’ve been and have been for a while um, i think avax has some really interesting tech, um, obviously like scalability at the base layer, although not as much as solana, and also kind of some level of of composability with with the sea chain and stuff um. A lot of innovation happened happening there, so yeah i mean we’re interested in avax. I think um.
I think what we’re most interested right now in terms of the next things that are going to happen are first of all loon. Obviously, we have a big position and also incubating a bunch of projects on there, and i think that ecosystem is is going to take off, especially as kind of stable coin. Regulation comes in and then also layer twos like starkware, which i think are close to being. Like the end game for crypto in terms of scalability and security on the base layer, so yeah i mean those are kind of the areas that we’re most most looking at right. Now, if you wanted to invest in layer, 2 ethereum and specifically, you wanted to invest in layer 2, ethereum zk roll ups, you mentioned stock wear, but very you can’t invest in stock way at the moment.
How would you invest because i mean most people that are watching the show are going yeah, that’s great. We bought into the narrative. We’Ve done a whole lot of shows this week. If, in fact, on the narrative um, how would you get exposure to it? Would you get exposure through things like polygon and matic?
Would you would you, would you dig deeper? Would you start doing the the zk, the zk link, zk, sync airdrops? How would you invest what would you do yeah, it’s a good question. There’S there’s really not much way to get exposure right now, uh starquay’s, private zk sync is, is, you know, might be doing a token soon, but but no one really knows um. So i think the best way is to kind of get involved in the ecosystem start.
Seeing stuff that’s being built on them, so i mean zigzag, is: is one that’s being built? It’S like a order book exchange being built on zk, sync and and on and on um starkware. I think providing liquidity. That’S it’s a really high level team as well. I think providing liquidity there and and start start getting involved is definitely a good trade-off and just starting to to talk to the to the builders and seeing what’s being built on there and uh figuring out where you know where to provide liquidity and also like being In for when these rounds start to happen, so there’s going to be a lot of cool applications launching on on uh on these layer.
Twos and the cool thing about them is, i think, at the beginning, with any new ecosystem and it’s kind of what we’re seeing with avax and solana as well. People just like poured over from ethereum right, like they do an amm on on solana, or they do a an ave, the aveon on on avax or whatever i think. What’S really interesting is when people start to build stuff that could only exist on these new platforms. Right on layer, two so they’re thinking about like what stuff is there that actually could only exist on layer two, because it’s not possible to do with layer. One scalability, because there’s a lot of stuff like amms, where it’s the design is, is very much based on.
On just layer, one gas limits right like that’s: why that design, kind of kind of picked up, and so thinking through like how does this end up being on on on layer two? What does it end up? Looking like and starting to speak to, the teams and stuff is is a good way, but i think right now it’s tough to get direct exposure to be honest, daniel. What do you think of the east layer? 2 narrative?
Do you think that that’s a good narrative to be looking at now? Well, i think i will start a little bit with avalanche, because i think our project made avalanche. What is it today i mean the retail has come to avalanche because of wonderland before the launch of wonderland. There was no retail friendly anything and pretty much all the activity and trading that is happening on on avalanche at the moment or on trader jones or any other exchanges through our application. Second, the number one traded, uh stable coin on avalanches, magic internet money, money, yeah yeah – that is also uh, one of my projects with abracadabra, and that is also because of i think, because of the partnership and the ecosystem benefits that we generate on having multiple projects On multiple chains right and the fact that magic internet money can be traded without any uh cost cross chain and moved across phantom arbitrarium, ethereum and avalanche for free and directly has been like a big important part of this multi-chain narrative.
Also, everybody might know that we sold the top of avalanche. We saw the 145 million dollars worth of avex at around 120 dollars per token um. We have the reason we’re buying it back now. Well, we still have uh the largest position of avalanche around. In this conversation for sure, because we have more than 250 million dollars still worth of fx, so we are uh in general directional.
So i believe that the world narrative layer 1 is a little bit of a speculative narrative, because there is no fundamentals. What is the fundamental of layer? One? It’S just it’s just a narrative of saying! Ah, because solana is worth x, then avalanche should be worth y and phantom should be worth c and so on.
Correlation in between tvl and tvl is pretty much like a like fully diluted value, a complete meme in my opinion, because what is tbl like is people folding, usdc with dye and so on and saying like oh okay, there is eight billion dollars in this chain yeah. I put the capital of 500 million, i folded it 10 times. I made 5 billion tbl, but i’m not doing any real activity right there right. So we need to. I believe that avalanche is, is very good, because we have seen that with a good application layer.
Retail has found a good onboarding ways to arrive into layer ones very easily. This is very important for the general crypto thesis in my opinion, so it means that by having coinbase wallet, metamask mobile solution, trust wallets and all the gateways and the ways in which they can buy in their direct token, it’s working very well, so the average normal Person coming from tick, tock or coming from youtube is capable of buying 100 200 500 worth and is not. The barrier of entry has been lowered by a lot. On the other hand, i think that we are still very early like on on wonderland. We have around, like 200 000 plus participants into the dal, making it the largest dow in the world and uh, and about 750 million dollars worth of asset under management uh in the dow, which is very interesting.
I think that these collectives are very powerful and layer. Two in the same way is also very interesting. Like our bedroom, all the activity is done by magic. Let me before we go later on layer, one when you talk about layer ones. I know you’re involved in multiple layer ones, but if i were to say to you right now, you’ve got you’re.
An investor you’ve got ten thousand dollars to invest, which layer one do you invest in which layer ones do you invest in? How do you break up the ten thousand dollars? I i personally would invest. I think it’s missing phantom, for example, into the equation. I think phantom is constantly liked and forgotten, which is something that i don’t know why.
But in reality, if you look into the activity of the chain, it’s very good, there is a good community on it. How much of the ten thousand dollars do you put into phantom? I would put twenty percent into phantom and the rest and into avalanche. I would put another 30 percent into luna uh, i’ve been i’ve, been working with the one a lot and we have actually have created the largest and the deepest liquidity for usd with magic internet money on ethereum. So, finally, it’s tradable like before we started collaborating.
There was no way in which you could actually have or buy 100 million worth of usd. There was no way unless you had the luna arbitrager. All my friends were like. How can i arb this and i’m like you, can’t you’re wrecked? So now there is more than one billion on the curve.
Sorry phantom 20 phantom 20 avalanche 30 lunar. You said right, yes, yeah and okay, so then the other 30, the other 30 percent. I would divide it in between ethereum and the salon. Okay, if any ten thousand dollars to invest in layer, one or ethereum layer, two, where do you put your money, depends on your risk profile. I mean i’m talking about veneers risk pop-up uh.
Personally, i, like i, i’m a big fan of like single um. I get. I can take a thesis on a certain area and i’ll put most of it in one and then i’ll spread out a little bit.
So in this case it would be eighty percent in solana and then 20, like maybe four chunks of five and other things. Just in case, but i i have a high conviction, obviously for solana, i’ve had for a long time, uh and it keeps breaking vinnie.
I mean it keeps it. The last 24 hours more than 60 percent of all celina transactions have failed. That’S right! A 50 billion dollar top five market capitalization is losing 2 000 transactions every second, he says just switch it off. Okay, now granted!
Yes, i get it. I’M just saying there is something in what he’s saying. Well, okay! So then, why why tell me why doesn’t the price reflect that i agree with you, but i mean why are we sitting at 168 dollars online with all these transactions failing right? No, i agree.
I’M invested in salon, i’m asking you though i mean it does keep breaking i mean, should we be losing hope? No, so so look, this is crypto right and we it’s not in web 2.0. This is similar to the twitter, fail whale scenario in 2009 or 10 or whatever it was right. You you couldn’t write twitter off at that point, just because they’re having some scaling issues and growth issues, these are growing pains.
Solana is the fastest network out there lowest finality. I mean look, it’s it’s. I think it’s going to be the winner. I think it’s going to be ethereum. I think it’s going to become.
You know maybe even a challenge to bitcoin one day, but it’s definitely going to take over ethereum in my opinion, and so i’m not even not even luna, i mean i mean you’re talking about putting eighty percent of your money in slaughter, five percent into four others. You wouldn’t put a big chunk of your money into luna, seeing the growth in tvl, seeing the the growing ecosystem. I must say that for me i didn’t say i wouldn’t do luna.
I said i do like. I maybe do five percent avalanche five percent uh in luna um.
You know i have to look at the other list. Uh. I probably wouldn’t put anything in ethereum uh. To be honest, i don’t think an ethereum layer too, like things like, if you could invest in in ethereum, i mean the reason. Why look when i met with anatoly in 2018 and we invested in uh, you know in solana back then the reason anatoly and i really got along was we both did not believe in player two and we were like okay.
This is great and i was like well, let’s get behind solana. That was it. I don’t believe in layer two. I think it’s silly and look. People can argue both ways.
I think it extracts economic value from layer, one and that’s a problem, so i think it it. It takes away from the security of the network, and this is gon na – be my argument about lightning for years. Lightning. If lightning succeeds, it basically is a security threat to bitcoin in the long term, because the economic value transfers to layer two and so as a look, i’m an old school database guy. I, like i, i studied this stuff in the 90s and i did information systems and when it came to things like shouting when it came to things like checkpoints and databases like layer, two is basically destroying the point of a blockchain.
In my personal opinion, i don’t think it’s. I think it’s like pointless, like the whole point of blockchain, you have these these. You know atomize these assets that can be moved around on a single layer and layer. Two you basically having it. You might just create databases or checkpoints, okay, jose ten thousand dollars to invest today, um, you got ta break it up.
Now, i’m actually quite interested in your answer, because i know that you’re invested in avalanche. I know you invest in celina. I know that you’re invested in internet and i think that you like each layer too as well yeah, i mean my this is like again like different risk profiles and stuff, my personal risk profile and like what i’m doing right now, i’m like 80 plus in luna Um and and less exposure to the others i mean, i think they represent, like very different bets like Ethereum, i think, is, is different, completely different risk profile than the others in terms of it is way more de-risked now um. I think that the layer two argument is interesting. Like we, the reason we initially went, cross-chain and like rune was actually our first investment was in the cross-chain thesis back in 2019 was because we kind of saw this layer, two thing happening and we were like layer.
Two breaks composability right, and so at that point you, if you’re gonna go onto onto optimism or onto arbitrary anyway, you might as well go to another chain like for a user. It’s the same right. They don’t care really, if they’re, on Ethereum or somewhere else. As long as transactions are fast and cheap, and so we realized that would open up the that would open up the the sort of opportunity for other chains to come in and so we’re super bullish on that thesis but, like i think it’s hard to have certainty On the future – and i think one challenge with like solana and this – and the idea that everything can sit on one chain – is that like demand for for for compute is, is like infinite. You know the cheaper, it gets.
The more demand goes up and like a single stock market does sort of, like you know, a ridiculous amount of transactions per second, and so will solana be able to host, but the world stock market with something like serum and also you know the world’s gaming infrastructure And also the nft marketplace, and so i think that’s where um some like uh there’s some different architectures. That can make sense. So, for instance, like one that we’re interested in is just the idea of modular blockchains with something like cosmos right where you have uh, rather than trying to build everything into one. You have like these specialized blockchains that each do their own thing. So terra is a stable coin and e5 chain right and then you’d have one: that’s that’s an nft blockchain and then they have a communication layer which is ibc which allows them to be composable.
And so you get composability that way right and then i think another view of the world which we’re super interested in is celestia, which is a layer one that’s coming out soon, which is just the idea that you accept that nothing can happen on one chain actually Layer, twos are the future, and so you build a layer, one that’s just optimized to to just host proofs right. So it’s like no execution happens happens on layer, one which is kind of what’s gon na happen with ethereum right. If player two succeed and assuming uh proof of stake and sharding doesn’t work which we’re not super bullish on um layer, one will just be literally like a bunch of proofs right and then all the execution happens on layer.
Two and there’s just these proofs being sent back to layer one, and so, if you think that’s the case, then you can build it differently and kind of optimize it for the beginning, so that layer, one is just like a data availability layer. So what i’m saying is like there’s all these different bets about what you think uh like how you think these things can turn out, and i think it’s really hard to see the future um like solana, has the advantage.
If everything happens on one place, you have this composability um, but is that possible right or does it just get too congested and do you need specialization at which point cosmos makes sense or is it like? Neither of those are or makes sense because you don’t get the scalability, so you need this layer, two fresh world, in which case it’s like the celestia win, because they have a better architecture or does Ethereum win because they have all the developers already right and all The network effect and and stuff like that, and so it just wins, like kind of like how um i have i have. I have two questions here and i mean the one question is more of a statement, but i haven’t heard anybody talking about polka dots polkadot’s. First, five parrot chains are going live on saturday. I think.
Is it saturday? So it’s it’s in the next day or two um. Why isn’t anybody excited about polkadot and kusama? Well, hey run. I mean we didn’t even like no one even say anything about cardano either.
So i’m not burning down this rabbit hole. I again i think like when it comes to when it comes to polka dot, cardano uh, there’s near there’s, casper, there’s a whole slew of these, like leia ones. That are actually really really interesting that people a lot of people like um. I think that what we’re seeing right now is look, i agree with jose on so many levels here, but i will say that i think that we move to a you know a multi-coin world, a multi-chain world where it is solana. Is it it’s probably not going to be a winner?
Take all it’s probably going to be, you know maybe Ethereum celina taking 50 60, and then you have this like fragmentation. The next 30 gets taken up by four or five chains, because there’s still a bunch of like you, know, ideological views on on blockchains for now, and so this this is a pair over a decade. I mean, i think, that i think you’re going to have this. Like hyper, fragmented, blockchain, or also a lot of things that happen on these chains, because it’s the early days, there’s a lot of entrenchment that happens so, whether it’s nfts or systems that get developed on top of certain blockchains people aren’t going to move this until you Get better at your chain, migration, which is still hard, okay and there’s another network that hasn’t launched. Yet i mean you’ve got so you’ve got like songbird, which is the canary network for flair same as uh kusama and pokedot uh and songbird that songwriter player uses avalanches protocol to some extent as well.
So you’ve got all these like derivations of existing layer. One innovations coming out: it’s one big global experiment: we don’t know how the stuff plays out. Anyone who thinks they do is just lying. We don’t know what about what about. If i phrased the question like this, we’re at the end of 2021, there’s two weeks left in 2021 and Ethereum is the number two coin right as far as Ethereum’s the number two coin – and i think bsc is the number three coin or tether is the number Three coin: let me just quickly uh it’s by it’s BSE and then it’s tether.
That’S number! Four! If i fast forward uh this to an end of 2022, which is 12 months from now, which is the number two coin and which is the number three coin i’d say, salon and Ethereum solano’s number two and ethereum’s number three daniel. What do you think this is? This is very funny.
You should invite me more in this in this type of conversation. I love it first, one. Second, sorry, if i, if i take a second but um, i think we are missing one one scenario that is: maybe the technology is already there in which everything can already work very well. It’S just that nobody gives a about building and it’s just focused on making the price go up. That is another scenario in which we are figuring it out right now, because it looks like a lot of people saying oh, but you you do a lot of things.
You you build a lot of things, but things are quite easy to build. The difference is that there is nobody that is willing to take that risk on putting his face on and say. Okay, i’m gonna build a dex, a dex that has an order book that works already very well on a layer, 2 or whatever, and how i see all these blockchains is that we are investing in isp providers like if you’re buying, solana, it’s like you’re buying Verizon or you’re buying some sort of like uh internet uh company like uh vodafo, you know, like everybody, will have his own clientele. Everybody will have his own target market and his geographical market too. Like solana, i feel like it’s becoming like an american blockchain polygon.
Matic is becoming more of an indian southeast asia blockchain, you know and so on. So if you start thinking about this as basically um telephone, telcos or just layers in which people can communicate and connect to the world of blockchain, then you see a world. That is absolutely crushing, because i can call you, even if you are on verizon from vodafone, you know, even if i’m in the uk, i can still give you a call or send you an sms, it doesn’t matter need for that, is it bridges or is? It? Is it a world where we have much faster bridges because that’s not how it works today i mean today, if you want to take money from, i don’t know ethereum to any other chain.
You need to have a doctor’s degree to do that. No, i know come on man like it’s not so difficult like like. I, i believe that yeah. I agree that user experience wise like this. I agree with you, but that doesn’t mean that it doesn’t work right like if we focus on building things that are actually nice and clean and and it’s it’s the same as the avalanche kind of ecosystem thing that we talked before, like consumers are going to avalanche Because it’s easier to buy avox, put it on a coinbase wallet and buy something that they want right.
But i i guarantee you like right now you can be on Ethereum and you can send magic internet money to phantom and then from phantom. You can send it all the way to avalanche directly in one click and – and i tell you like the world like serum, for example, if serum was built in an evm way, and it was right now deployed on like dk, sync or or arbitrarily even um, if Arbitrary would be cheaper, would be nice, but that’s another story, but, like imagine a word in which, instead of having the ydx in which you deposit directly from um from ethereum usdc, you can just in one click in whatever chain you are. You are on solana. You have usdt in one click, you deposit towards a layer to order book exchange and you can do whatever you want and another guy comes from avalanche and does the same with avoc right like that, then you know: what’s the finality in those transactions like? What’S the financing time i mean you can’t run something like serum with multi-second finality times right and avatar’s got liquidity issues moving from up from back onto the main chain like how do you how you do those?
Yes, we fixed it like with the with our bridge. We fixed it and i think we’re avoiding the question. The question is, what is the number two coin and what is the number three coin at the end of 2022? I think Ethereum is the number two coin. No discussion like there is not even there is not even a discussion here like.
I don’t think that even solana should even think that i want to be like bigger than Ethereum, where I want to be like what what solana should focus on is that I want to have more users than it hearing like. You know, right now. Okay number. Two coin is a theory number three coin. Well number three coin: uh, i think, is going to be tether.
No that doesn’t count. Okay, okay, number. Four coin, number, four point! Ah, you mean, as um as a blockchain, yeah yeah, i think like tethers, i mean they should take tether out of you, yeah yeah. I think i think uh personally, i think cosmos could be okay.
I don’t agree with you on that one uh jose. What do you think yeah? I don’t i don’t agree either i mean, i don’t think i don’t really get the use case for it for atom, like i don’t get why you would use atoms security because you don’t need to use like add some security to to launch a tendermint chain. I just think like, if you’re gon na, do that, why not just launch ontario, where you have composability, with way more adapts that are already live and obviously it’ll fill up at some point, but like still, why would you use like acid, like it doesn’t even have Smart control capabilities – i don’t know i feel, like osmo osmosis, also like rugged a bunch of like atoms like value, cruel, um yeah, i’m super bullish, but i don’t know polkadot’s got more chance of beating uh could be also polka dot like either one polka dot on One, i think that’s a sleeper there’s like a lot of money going into that ecosystem and um a lot of smart people building stuff yeah. I don’t know you know i i agree.
I think, but i think polka dots got a way better chance than than adam at this point like this okay hold on. Let’S i want to go there and we don’t have much time but jose. What are your top, so bitcoin remains number one. I think we agree on that end of 2022 yeah yeah. Probably i don’t think bitcoin remains number one for forever, though, for sure, no, i think after 2022 it doesn’t anymore, i think Ethereum’s, a better Ethereum’s kind of the new bitcoin right.
It’s like slow and and like it, has a good store value. Thesis like it has cash flows like, I think I think, Ethereum’s like the new bitcoin and bitcoin kind of doesn’t have a narrative anymore. At that point you know once the theorem has a burn. It’S like deflationary, it’s also slow and it moves slow and like predictable. I don’t know i feel, like uh kind of all.
These scalable chains become like what Ethereum was to to bitcoin and Ethereum becomes bitcoin and bitcoin. Just kind of like has has nothing happening other than brand um, like no security models at all uh next time, i’m gon na get you on with it with like a bunch of maxis i’ll get like then i’ll go get johnny all right, so who’s. The number two coin next year – um – i i think, i think, probably still, if they’re i think, celina does have a chance – i think – probably still Ethereum and then number three um yeah, i’m gon na go with tara. I mean i’m, i’m yeah, i’m gon na go. Tear it to my yeah um, okay, i think i messed up.
I mean by the way ryan just to point out to everyone like – and this is this is a very unpopular opinion, but for solana to overtake ethereum. It doesn’t mean that solana has to go up 9x or whatever it is. It means that solana goes up enough, that ethereum people get spooked and ethereum comes down.
You could see ethereum back in the 2000s and solana rising at the same time, and that’s where you get a flipping. It doesn’t have to be a 9x growth for solana directly.
I think the one thing, the one thing that we we’ve all haven’t spoken about is this rampant growth of ust and all these applications, which are now locking up and using ust and every time that happens. There’S a massive burn uh of luna, and i think that that that lunar network effect and that burn effect on luna is something that you can’t really deny right now. It’s happening, i mean like the growth is exponential, so that i mean I must say i do think.
Whatever happens. Luna lands up in the number three spot.
That’s that’s where my head is right: we’ve got 10 minutes, left um, really, we’ve got 10 minutes left and until it’s the last banter of the year, so just very quickly top three themes that you guys are seeing for. Let’s say for the first six months of next year, because i think forecasting into the next 12 months is, as far is too far, what are the the top two or three themes that you guys are seeing. Well, i mean, i think, the metaverse and web 3.0. Those two are the major themes going into 20, but but vinnie web 3.
is very vague. Like let’s talk about, let me break it down. Let me break it down. Web 3. 0 is, in my opinion, the the notion that we do not have a single point of failure anywhere on the infrastructure right we’re moving to a point where amazon can’t shut it down.
Uh the DNS providers or whatever hosting providers, can’t shut anything down. You can have decentralized domain names, you have decentralized, storage, decentralized, compute. Basically it’s this notion that we have um.
You know effectively a cloud that doesn’t have a single point of failure for global communications, so storage, you’re, talking about storage, you’re, talking about um you’re. Talking about storage, you’re, talking about computing power, you’re talking about handshake, which is DNS you’re talking about you’re.
Talking about that narrative, so uh render slash, ao, slash, golem, uh, slash, akash file, coin um and then decentralized money, which is, i guess, ust or die, or mum or one of those or many of those. So so, basically for me, it’s storage, compute, dns and identity. Those are the four things that we were focusing on um that i think that web 3.0 is going to be about and i think we’re going to see decentralized options. Basically, that emerge that competes with amazon google uh in a very similar way that web 2.
basically unbundled craigslist and banking products, and that sort of thing. So it’s it’s borderless um and you basically see the digital digital services. Moving from like, i call it politically based uh services so operates within a certain border in this country, like you have to go to amazon, u.s or amazon wherever and you have to sign up for an account and it moves away from that to sort of non-political. It’S borderless you’ve got to file for you, pay your full and you get storage anywhere in the world.
It doesn’t matter so so. Credit 2.0 is going gonna create this world, where we don’t have uh political borders in technology Jose. What do you think top two? Three narratives that q1 q1 and two next year, yeah, i think um game.
Five is definitely gonna, be gonna, keep, i think, being uh being a really strong narrative, we’re seeing so many like top top devs. You know people that built some of the some of the legendary games of of of the last two decades that are that are shifting to to crypto doing play, to earn models and doing it right right from from from the get-go, in a way where all the Values accruing to a dow, where you know 60, 70 percent of the of the value is gonna, is going to go to to the gamers. Like i think it’s going to be a really big trend. I think there’s going to be a massive like graveyard in winter at some point, because there’s a lot of crap out there as well and a lot of like you, know, pivots and like just just people who you know did a crappy game. And now they wanna they wanna make it less crappy with plate iron and stuff, like that.
So there’s definitely a lot of that and ridiculous valuations, but i think there’s gonna be some really breakthrough. Games and um like it’s going to drive. I think a massive adoption of crypt. I think it’s one of it’s going to be one of the things that drives the biggest option like gaming, um and then dao’s, i think, is another one where, like i think that was actually going to be driven by regulation. Like regulation in a way is a is like a positive like pressuring force, because it forces people to stop doing things with multi-sigs on, like private telegram channels and to start actually decentralizing, because i think multi-cities are going to start encompassing, like some some legal liability.
Obviously we’re going to see more anons and and uh. You know mcdonald’s uh. You know mcdonald’s hat like punks and stuff, but uh. I think we’re also going to see dows rise up so that people can actually organize in in a decentralized way in in a more efficient way where it’s not like everyone’s coming together to vote on everything you have like specialization. You’ve got committees that are working that have budgets that are accountable to token orders.
I do think that’s going to take a while, but i think we’re already seeing some really strong infrastructure there and that’s going to keep keep evolving those. Those are two um. Third, one yeah: i think i think those those two are.
Those two are good web. Three, I’m excited.
I’M excited about identity as well like uh people, finding ways we we should invested in a project called sismo which, which is basically zk proof attestations about yourself. So you can kind of, for instance, prove that you participated in the eth crowd, sale or whatever, without actually revealing the wallet that did or prove that you have held something for x, amount of time or approving. Kyc we’ve been working on that for years at civic yeah.
That’s always I’m really excited about that. I think that’s like the future of.
I think the future of identity is literally like NFTs, that prove things about yourself right and that you you collect together. There are badges and then i think like and that’s where i think that web 3 ux, like people always talk about web3 ux is clunky. It’s crappy, i think, like people are going to come to web 3 versus web 3 going to web 2.Like i think they’re, it’s definitely clunky some of this stuff, but there’s also like magical experiences that you just can’t have with web 2, like like a metamask sign in right, like signing in with ethereum like soon on your on your delphi subscription you’re going to be Able to just sign in with ethereum, you don’t need to give your email, you don’t need to fill in your date of birth for the thousandth time or your address. Just your meta mask right and you can.
You can sign in and pay for your subscription and then, as nfts like capture more and more metadata about yourself that’ll become like an identity layer that you can read so much stuff from like your privacy preferences. Your followers could be on your nft right and then social media pulls your followers from your nft instead of owning your followers on on the social media. So i think that i think that’s going to be really cool too yeah. Okay, cool all right um quickly. So on the identity stuff i mean this is this is actually really really interesting.
You basically have identity-based nfts, where all the data sits there, so we’re at civic we’re doing this already, and you can use that identity to participate in, in in token sales etc. It’S basically bot resistant, it’s actually amazing what we can do with nfts and identity right now. I’M super excited about that space. Okay, daniel we’ve got two minutes left your best. Your top three themes for q, two q, one and two next year – decentralized option training.
Think it’s well due like we. We must have a platform for that and a good one, not some garbage, and this is demonstrated by retail, coming to robinhood and 70 percent of all retail action is on options, because gen z understands leverage and understands that like futures are not for them and instead Options is very good because it allows you to leverage and not get liquidated till the till the end of the option. Right, uh, second decentralized autonomous organization, and i will go in the opposite way of you um, because i think that the most powerful will be the ones that cannot be controlled by regulation, so the ones that that have multi signers that are not from the us. That’s the first thing: they can still get you even if you’re, not in the us, though, why? They’re, probably not you specifically with you like it depends where the mood designer live and and at the end of the day i mean okay, one more guys.
We are running out of time, one more one, more one more um last one i think uh cross chain d5 in general, like d5, that’s capable of capturing all people, not just one, not just one type of uh person. Honestly, i think i think, for me the the narratives for q1 and q2. I think we’re going to get an east layer.
2 scaling boom uh that happens early in q1. I think this narrative of decentralized social networks takes off sometime next year.
Uh, maybe not in maybe q1 and q2, and then i think this whole meta, decentralized, metaverse, so vinnie calls it web3. I call it a real decentralized metaverse, which is decentralized money, decentralized, computing power, decentralized, storage, decentralized servers. I think that, for me, is a narrative that really wakes up in in qr next year, guys we are completely out of time, so i’m going to. Thank you guys again. Thank you for all your love and support this year.
Thank you for joining us on our last banter of 2021. We’Ll see you guys next year, vinnie. Thank you jose. Thank you daniel. Thank you thanks very much guys thanks guys yeah.
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you and I’m going to thank you guys for joining us every single friday every single week. I am going to be back here on Monday and on Monday i am going to be doing a 2022 trends with ryan selkis from asari. It’s going to be our last show of the year.
It’s going to be absolutely absolutely huge. Do we have 5 000 likes 3.5 only 3.5, so no bang to bags winner on the show we’ll do it on Monday i’ll see you guys again on Monday. Until then, trade well guys before i let you guys go before i let you guys go remember that tonight there is another in the game uh with hustle.
Hustle has still going to carry on within the games right. Okay, so is it in the game make sure that you watch it? It is the number one gaming alpha on the entire entire entire innerwebs. It is, i guess it’s a bit. The best show out there so make sure that you’re watching the game see you guys later.
That was great yeah, it’s okay! It’s good!