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Tuesday, December 6, 2022


People on crypto YouTube are all looking to find the biggest winners in a short time frame: getting 10 x’s 20 x’s 30 x’s. If you are seeking extraordinary gains, dare i say even trying to make it here in crypto in a condensed amount of time, then there are frameworks that you need to master in order to get ahead of the market and on a channel like this, i could easily Spoon feed a bunch of different things that i think are going to do well in the near future, but i think, what’s even more important, is to give you the tools to find these projects for yourself. So I’m going to be using some examples today, but I’m going to be showing you how to get ahead of the market here in 2022, based on raw data of real coins that are accomplishing this based on historical patterns that have manifested now not once not twice. But three major times really: four: if you count nfts and I’m going to be giving you a framework that you can use to absolutely crush this market here, so spend the next few minutes and master this, because if you spend the time to learn this framework, you’ll Be ahead of the average joe and you’ll certainly be way ahead of your average crypto market participant when things get really hot. Once again, if you work nine to five, you check crypto part time.

You flip open your block, folio on your lunch break, while you’re smoking a cigarette which you shouldn’t smoke. Kids, the reality is: is that you’re probably not going to be fully engaged with this? This kind of content, trading, hot altcoins, getting extraordinary gains and making sure that you keep them. This is the stuff that is mostly relegated for the people who have been here and done this before for the people who have been through not one but maybe two or three market crashes. I believe each crash is a notch on the belt.

So if you haven’t been through the pain before and you’re, expecting massive gains, you’re – probably going to be stepping into a world of pain, so just know that. But if you’re one of my beloved degenerates out there you’ve been out of the frying pan and into the fire here in crypto land once twice many times before, then this framework, i believe, is going to help you crush 2022

So, let’s dive in right now, one of the most important things to track is this right here, which is it’s getting controversial to be bullish again – and this was a tweet from two days ago – maybe less controversial today. But it’s particularly important when you realize what is and isn’t the majority view this is part one of understanding how to completely crush the market in 2022. You need to understand what the consensus view is right now the consensus view is bearish due to the fed. Now will talks about this very well when he says once a narrative is consensus, the narrative is reaching saturation and has already begun to shift.

The real alpha was to anticipate the fed comments based on some hints from jerome powell and to actually sell before those fomc meetings before the fed expressed the desire to do quantitative, tightening or as soon as they did to really risk off. But the reality is now that narrative is so widely understood that your average taxi cab driver is telling you, oh the fed’s, going to raise interest rates. You better sell all your cryptos. Well, as soon as everybody knows, the deal, the max payne and max payne is definitely something the market loves to explore. The max payne for the market is then against that which means up.

It means that most people have sold at a loss, have been shaken out or are shorting the market and that it’s going to hurt the most people to go up. I don’t know why the market is a masochist like this and just loves to hurt us all deeply, but that’s the market we’re in and know that the max payne is always going to be the direction the market goes. Even if, in this case that max payne is bullish, so i’m going to talk a little bit about why i’m getting bullish here and why. I believe that the narrative has sufficiently played out. It’S always useful, to add some raw data.

In this case, we’re going to use the dormancy flow, which is an interesting chart that tracks how dormant bitcoin are, the more dormant, the more sleeping, bitcoin, usually the better for the price. The more bitcoin goes up. The more the rest of the market goes up now. What we see is that the dormancy reading is reaching a level that it hasn’t reached since the huge crash back in the summer before that, the last time it reached this was during the flu dump of march 2020. Before that it was the ultimate low of the bear market in 2018 and then again in the ultimate low of the bear market in 2015.

As you can see, this capitulation crash in 2015 and then before that in the ancient times of 2011

The point is that whenever this happens, it marks massive major, influential bottoms on the bitcoin chart. We see it each and every single time when there’s a metric like this, that only flashes once in a very blue moon, it’s worth taking notice again. Could it go lower? Of course it could go lower, but does that mean that we’re reaching some pretty extremely oversold and capitulatory levels? Well, it certainly feels that way.

Adding on to this, we have 10 straight down weeks. We’re reaching maximum pain for earth. Crypto balance is imminent targeting 3 500.. If you’re lucky enough to be mostly in a liquid jpegs, you can breathe easy.

This is the magnitude of washout that triggered the last nft megabull cycle back in march. Now I’ve been saying this since we started the metaverse cycle at the beginning of q4 that as soon as this cycle plays through nfts will cycle back in and that’s because nfts are very much more likely to go parabolic when the market is calm, we can talk About that a lot, but just know I’m playing the nft markets pretty heavily, i’m going to be coming out with some nft coverage. These markets are really illiquid and temperamental. So I’m trying to figure out a way that i can cover these without picking and choosing winners or losers. The reality is, though, that by the time everybody knows that jpegs are going up only it’s probably time to start taking profits.

Remember i started covering nfts aggressively in may, and everyone was telling me i was an idiot and then, by the time everyone realized there was money in this in july and august. Well, that’s when we were getting our blow off tops, so you don’t want to be late to trends. That is a huge, huge part of the framework. I’M going to be telling you right now again, speaking more to the reversal of the fed narrative, we have a lot of onlookers saying that jerome powell really tried to appease everyone today with his comments by essentially making it seem like hey, look the fed’s doing stuff, But they’re also not doing stuff so buy stuff, but also don’t worry about inflation, but do worry about the stock markets. Anyway, it’s all going to be okay, so he really took a middle path here and you can see that the fed rhetoric is becoming quite trying to make everybody happy and again.

If the markets get too too desolate and too extreme, the fed will start to make the markets happy and that’s because everyone in power has all their wealth tied up in the stock markets, and so nobody wants those numbers to go down. And finally, the strategy i’m going to be going into now is a great strategy, but it is not as good as a thesis driven strategy. You’Re not going to get a thousand x gains like the people who started with a few thousand dollars in the summer and ended up millionaires from jpegs. That’S because they only focused on jpegs. The people who crushed the crypto gaming narrative were playing axiomfinity in 2019 and 20 and they weren’t making any money off of it.

They just believed in this stuff. If you really really want to make 1000x know that any one tactic or strategy isn’t going to get you there, you need to find a niche, a very small part of crypto, that you can master and become completely obsessed with, so that when the new projects, the Real winner projects come to market, you can be one of those early birds taking advantage of absolutely basement prices in the next big winner. That is the path to thousand x. All of this stuff, i’m giving you can get you 10 x’s can get. You started and help you really understand the game of crypto, but if you want a thousand x, you need a thesis.

You need to focus on one sector of the industry, whether it’s nfts video games, zk, roll up, scaling, alternative layer, ones. D5. You pick your poison, but you got to become an expert at it, so today i’m going to break down what’s going on in the market and why this is very much so repeating a similar fractal that we’ve seen in the past. This is proving once again a framework that i believe is going to be hugely successful in 2022, which is investing in the projects that show strength during a downturn see we just had this massive collapse, yet there have been some projects that have barely dipped or have Even shown strength and reached all-time highs during this downslide in the market being able to identify the single green candles in a sea of red is a good indication of where the market is aggressively willing to put on risk, even in the face of an overall market Turn this is a great sign, because once the market finds a bottom or finds some stability as it feels like it’s finding right now, that is an amazing time to position yourself in assets that people were willing to take risk on, even in the worst of times. Now, to fully tell the story, i’m going to use three examples.

The first example is kusama. Now, back in d5, summer of 2020, kusama came out of nowhere on the polkadot narrative hype, which really exploded during august, people weren’t really sure how to value kusama or what kusama was. But what we saw during the huge dip of september 1.

Bear in mind, bitcoin took a huge dump ola between september 1 and september 2, but on that day, kusama pumped to all-time highs. Let’S take a look at the bitcoin chart from september 1 trading at almost 12 000 and then it collapsed down here to 11
4, and by september the 3rd, it was at 10 000 under our initial new highs from late july, so this actually broke a big support level and crashed and most alts were looking absolutely horrendous, bleeding out 60 70, 80 percent down.

What we saw out of kusama was that it barely retraced from its all-time highs. Yes, 58 down to 44 is a collapse, but this pump during the red day and a slight retrace that actually had it at about equal prices to when the entire collapse began showed the same strength that we’re seeing out of some other projects that we’ve seen later In the year and bear in mind, this is what early september looks like if you extend the chart, what we saw after that was that strength followed through and when the market found its footing boom. We get a 547 kusama at one point in the future. It even went as high as you know, 600. It says here, 620 was the ultimate high for kusama.

So what we see here is that that initial strength uh back during that first dump here in september it definitely forecasted a ton of strength in the long term. So if you would have just bought into this strength, uh during this dip, you would have had. I don’t know, like a 20x here over the next few months. Now the story continues again with solana, as we see here during the may crash and by the way here’s bitcoin during the may crash, we have from may 11th all the way to may 24th. We see bitcoin go from 58 000 down to thirty four thousand dollars and on the day that solana hit an all-time high.

Bitcoin was looking horrendous at forty three thousand dollars uh down from its support level. This previous support level of 48k. It was looking like a down only chart, but what did we see out of solana? We actually saw during that time. Uh from when bitcoin starts dipping here at the uh at the beginning of may or may 11th.

We see kusama actually pump up to 56 dollars. So on may 18th, kusama was not only green but green and up big while the rest of bitcoin and crypto was down down. So when we see these types of relationships, where you see the market dipping and then we see strength like we saw out of kusama and solana well, what we see next is once the market finds its footing. Solana. This is the solana.

56 dollar price. Yes, it did come down to 24 during that dip, but because of that strength, a lot of people saw it as the fastest horse to bid on once the market stabilized. Then we get solana’s ultimate breakout about what was that a few months later and solana completely dominated the late summer, eventually reached 250, which was over a 5x growth from this and about a 10x growth from this. So what you see is that kusama and solana are telling the story of that when something shows strength during a massive massive correction out of bitcoin in the markets. That betting on that for the next sort of midterm short to midterm is not a bad bet.

It’S supported by the data that over the next few weeks and months, that is the time for that project to shine now, we finally have an example of avax doing this avax during the september dump pumped actually up here to 63 bucks, the rest of the market During september, as you can see towards the end of september, was actually on a huge dip down from 52 000 down to 41 000, a pretty significant sell-off from bitcoin in september. And what did we have uh? We did have a slight dip here um, but then we see avax get bought right up during that dip. So on september 12th, here september, uh 12th. What we have is, while bitcoin has sold off from 52 down to 45 here or the the mid-40s.

We actually have avax going up to all-time high at 61.

And so you can see that strength here. Obviously it’s not as dramatic as the solana or kusama examples, but it is indicative nonetheless, and what did we see after that, a little bit of a dip and then a massive run to all-time highs? 134. I believe 144 was the ultimate high there, so about a 3x gain out of avalanche.

If you had bid that strength during the market reset again, what do we see and what is the lesson we learn is that when coins are showing strength during the dips, they end up being strong after the dip ends and, of course, we’ve seen day after day Of green for coins like polygon phantom near harmony, f-o-a-n are all doing very well and we’re even adding oasis or rows to that group of coins. We also have joule here which, during the december crash, it ended up pumping and then pumping some more and now it’s had a little reset, but it is responding really well now that the market has found its footing again, showing you that strength during the dip leads To strength after the dip, so in early january 2022 we see a few very clear signs and a framework developing for how we can go ahead and approach the market right now, one once a narrative becomes consensus, it’s important for you to realize that that narrative has Saturated and that the pros have moved on and are probably trading against that narrative, we’re seeing that right now and i do believe that the worst is over for this fed fud dip now could we have one last scare to the downside i believe it’s possible, but I believe that we’ve seen the worst of it and, most importantly, what we’ve seen is that the trend that happened to kusama that happened to solana that happened to luna. That happened to avax this trend of following strength and betting on it. Once the market has really found its footing, that trend is holding up very, very strong here in 2022. So, as the market resets, we tend to see the things that pop up are the things that the market values and cares about the most.

So, unless you’re looking to completely hyper focus on a single niche, you’re still generally playing the crypto markets, which i believe most of you are again, i’m gon na be focusing more and more on video games and nfts. That is, the niche i believe, is most important for mass adoption. That’S for another episode, but the reality is that unless you’re niching down and focusing a thousand percent of your energy on one part of the industry, then you should be looking for strength, especially during dips, and that, following that strength during dips is a fantastic strategy. As it’s played out for the last three major crashes showing effectively where the heat map is for the industry and by betting on those tokens, we’ve seen anywhere from 3, 5, 10 and 20 x’s over the coming months that follow that correction. Do i believe that we’re entering into a bear market – i don’t believe the market is simply bearish or bullish anymore, we’re seeing much more nuance in the markets.

It’S way too soon to call a macro bearer. It’S way too soon to call a macro bull, but if you’re being aggressive in managing your risk and this time of course, you’re smart enough to take profits, pulling out your initials as soon as possible and playing with house money, then i believe these strategies and frameworks Can put you way ahead of the average market participant again, if you guys enjoy these videos, smash that like button and make sure to subscribe as we work hard each and every day here to bring you the most up-to-date approach to the crypto markets? I hope you guys are having fun i’ll be playing around a lot in gaming, nft, metaverse and, of course, following the strength during the dips. As always, i’m elio trades, if you want my most up-to-date information, follow me on twitter, leotrades and i’ll see you very soon. On the next episode,

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