greetings everyone welcome back to another closing live stream well well well folks the big question now is when is the pain going to end and uh my expectations for when this pain is going to end have shifted uh substantially i think we are probably going to experience this continued pain and i’ll make a more detailed video probably later today it’s going to take a while to put it together but uh i think we’re probably going to see continued pain uh until we get through specific catalyst points such as fed meeting jan 25 and specifically cpi march 10 and the fed meeting march 15 to 16. uh that means that ironically i think that or earnings whether they’re good or bad are gonna be bad and i’m just giving you like a quick little preview bottom line here i’ll make a more detailed explanation on all of this later but see look at netflix if netflix reports insane growth and the ability to raise prices on their customers without expectations of declines that would be good news for netflix but guess what it would signal to the federal reserve uh oh we should tighten more because things are overheating so good news bad for companies and bad for the market during earnings season good news gets punished bad news well you saw what happened when netflix released bad news yesterday bad news also gets punished so i think earning season is good news is bad bad news is bad i think january 25th jay pal’s not going to be super bearish so i think we could get a small rally out of jan 25 but most people are going to be worried about march 15 to 16 because they remember 2018 they remember what happened when the fed turned bearish and y’all should really watch my video oh thank you for the comment on the uh the titanic video uh what i really recommend is the fed minutes uh fed minutes from december were terrible uh uh yeah here it is this uh and i actually live streamed it wow okay if you have not seen this video yet this is must must watch okay uh it is so so so important and i’m wearing the hat and the glasses and the thumbnail so it should be easy to find this right here must must must watch right here the fed just crashed stocks the worst report yet really really important it’s 54 minutes long i know it’s long but you will not be disappointed watching this this is so so important because it shows you literally the most bearish fed that i’ve seen since 2008 and i studied 2008 a lot uh you know i go back and read the minutes i love them uh you know they don’t release all of uh all of the historical uh transcripts though uh timely sometimes i think the transcripts take like 12 years to come out which is kind of crazy but i remember i haven’t done this in a while but a few years ago i was reading through the 2005 and 2006 transcripts and it was crazy to see just how slow the federal reserve was to react if you haven’t watched my titanic video yet about what’s going on in the market i i recommend you watch that because it just it adds a little humor and light to this market but uh here’s here’s the reality the market uh thank you on the uh the titanic video yeah um look i i hope the market just starts rallying i really do hope that i want the market to just turn green again i want to dye my hair green i want the market to rally uh i i want everything to go back to normal but i do think we’re teetering between two fears of recession and i think that’s creating so much fear and uncertainty and the only thing that is going to remove that fear and uncertainty is j-pow i hate to say it but it’s the cpi data and j-pal that’s what everything hinges on even though the bond market isn’t pricing in more inflation those are what the fears are people go to the gas station oh my gosh five dollar gas in california you know uh and i do believe that institutions are going to come continue to to rip us off i think the way institutions are ripping us off is we buy the dip and they sell it they trade us they literally trade us they buy in early market dip they sell by three hours into the market and the market just turns down almost every single day the market turns down towards the close it’s because the institutions aren’t buying right now the people buying are the retail by the dippers and they’re getting reamed we just had a very long conversation about strategies about this in the course member life it was the hardest course member live stream i’ve ever had to do but i’m not the kind of person who’s going to uh to just you know go on vacation when times get tough you know that’s that’s the sign of a true little is somebody’s like you know what youtube ad revenue is down uh you know stocks are down just i’m gonna go on a four week vacation and just eff it right like that would be a little baby i’m gonna stand up and uh and and go through strategies i’m and i’m preparing a larger video uh for for uh for the channel this is a little bit of a preview of what some of my thoughts are uh we talk a little bit more in a raw format in the course member live and we can kind of have a little bit of a dialogue and then that helps me kind of put thoughts together for for uh larger videos later but it won’t be before the markets closed because well the market’s gonna close in nine minutes uh but anyway uh i’m not going anywhere i am uh uh going to keep streaming and keep covering the madness of the market and so with that said let’s get into the madness of the market so uh we have the indices doing the following dow jones down 1.12 percent the s p 500 down 1.72 the nasdaq folks down 2.44 the russell 2000 down 1.
29 percent crypto we’ll look at in a moment i want to look at bonds quickly uh bond yields uh actually down on the day right down to 1.75 i think they were a little lower this morning but uh this is this is a potential risk where we maybe get a flat yield curve in fact let me pull that up really quick on Bloomberg uh you could probably google this actually i think i wonder if CNBC has this 10 yield curve CNBC if they have it it’ll be faster 10-2 yield spread they do have it yes okay this is the concern about actually yields going down you know usually we look at like the 10 year and it’s like oh the the 10 years up or whatever and uh and then it actually goes down um or i’m sorry so the tenure goes down we think oh maybe that’s a sign that uh what’s it called uh hold on a second let me fix this really quick see news for today’s there we go okay so uh the expectation usually is oh tech should do well when when the yield when 10 years go down right but we’re actually seeing a lot of pain in the nasdaq today first of all i was looking i was studying this a little bit there’s actually very little correlation between yields and the nasdaq it’s more of a a belief and a misconception than fact and so it’s no surprise that the nasdaq’s down two percent or whatever and the ten years down like eight basis points uh that’s actually no surprise because there is no solid correlation between the two but people believe that there is the bigger problem though is this fall here in uh in in right here in the yield curve in the 10-2 spread or the 210 spread whatever and the fall in this implies a flattening yield curve and the issue with that is when this inverts it could potentially spell recession uh this did invert uh over here in about the summer of 2019 and uh and we’re kind of heading back to those levels and so that is going to be a concern that potentially gets priced into the market last video was phenomenal the titanic one thank you i appreciate that uh you know honestly i was inspired to make that that clip with all the titles because i watched the titanic yesterday and i couldn’t help myself but make that analogy uh when it was happening like the printer running and all that it was it was just i mean it just shows you how much i think about this market it could be disease i could be mentally broken i probably am but uh yeah anywho okay so uh ethereum is below 27.30 bitcoin below uh almost below 38 000.
Uh the weekly chart here is not looking good uh so cardano’s actually doing the best but still look at this solana 119. i mean this is half of all-time highs we’ve seen 19 just in the day on luna here this is it’s just very ugly and very bad and i hope i hope that it’s the bottom bye i i’m worried that it’s more of a beginning than a bottom like i was watching that titanic and i was trying to i was trying to pretend like okay where where in the sinking of the titanic are we did we just get hit with the iceberg or was getting hit with the iceberg the end of november remember when i shorted the market unfortunately i closed that position early full transparency uh i wish i still held it oh well woulda could shoulda right but anyway i had i had the right gut about shorting the market anyway uh if it was that one we hit the iceberg and if that’s when we hit the iceberg are we just now starting to load up the lifeboats or are we already at the bottom of the ocean and personally i could be very wrong about this but i personally think we’re loading up the lifeboats like the hedgies and institutions are the first class passengers getting on the lifeboats and all of us are the third-rate citizens getting getting reamed uh you know like like they’re still who you remember titanic where the scenes where they have the gates closed and they keep us in the dark like down below and they hide real information from us because that’s what the institutions do to screw retail right like i feel like the gates are closed and we’re behind we’re like come on this is ridiculous and you know jack comes with the bench and they start ramming the gate to get out and kind of see the light oh no all the lifeboats are gone you know uh who knows who knows maybe i should i shouldn’t have watched the titanic yesterday and it’s it’s uh uh i hope it’s not making me emotional you never know i don’t know anything about the bnsf strike i don’t even know what bnsf is i appreciate your twenty dollars oh it’s a railway straight i have never in my career studied rail race i literally don’t even know where to start i would rather just give you this straight up but 17 000 union employees prepare for strike my opinion of this is just just thinking about it if this means supply chains are going to get reamed bad bad 17 000 workers i mean how many workers does it take to operate a freaking train 17 000 is that like the whole freaking country like how many rail workers do we have how many rail workers in united states like what percentage is this okay 135 000 okay so what is that about 15 percent thirteen twelve point six percent okay all right all right okay that’s not terrible it’s not good anyway let’s look at the sticks here for a moment uh we’ve got one minute left to the close as is freaking typical the market is selling off into the close uh i want to warn this i do think there is a high likelihood we are going to have a nice green day on monday but i think it’s going to be a head fake leading into wednesday i think the market’s going to sell before wednesday because i think people are going to freak the f out about j pal a lot of people right now with the exception of institutions i don’t think actually realize that the j-pal meeting is at 11 30 uh his press conference and his release is at 11 uh pacific time on wednesday you know it’s gonna be monday that people start talking about that anyway qqq straight down on the day here s p 500 tesla i thought this morning was bad like this was bad it got worse like everything everything got worse well let’s get the bell and we’ll come back to this ah wrong one about almost nine percent off its record intraday high it’s about 7.
7 down for the year and for the week it’s lost about 5.7 really a tough week for stocks overall the nasdaq in particular it’s closing down another two and three-quarters percent that means for the week it’s down more than seven and a half percent wilfred yeah we tried to bounce there all right holy smokes folks um look i i don’t want to be mr fear but we haven’t even seen circuit breakers yet i do not want to i really don’t want to uh dow jones down 1.3 s p 500 down 1.9 nasdaq almost down 3 on a day russell down 1.79 look i would expect a green monday when you have this much of a red day uh we’re probably gonna have a red monday i’m sorry we’re probably gonna have a bounce monday but how many times have we talked about convictionless rallies in this market every freaking rally since december has been convictionless and honestly if you’re heavy on tech it’s felt convictionless since february of last year when the bloomberg terminal two-factor identification code told me pray and yesterday i get like it literally says sh9t many of you already know this because you watched yesterday’s live stream or this morning’s live stream in case you don’t already know this sh9t is like censored right but if you count out the ninth letter in the alphabet it shows you what to fill in which the fact that it said that is just a bad omen that’s all it is i’m not a very superstitious person but definitely got me thinking about our catalysts and time frames so anyway i’m exhausted that’s all i can say like you know what we need we need joint shots and tequila that’s it hold on we’re doing it please stand clear of the closing doors um we’re gonna we’re gonna hit the sticks here in just a second hey would you mind bringing me a cup and tequila please thank you right okay so netflix actually didn’t end up getting uh yes that’s uh lauren uh netflix did end up getting a it actually kind of closed the way it opened which is kind of surprising uh roblox just straight down here i mean roblox from 74 to 68.
90 hey you want to say hi come in here everybody wants to see you yes hello when are you going to post on your channel again i don’t know say something else good luck everybody good luck all right thank you ah all right uh yeah i gotta order some uh hard sell sir um what do they call topo chico’s i didn’t know that i’ll have to ask lauren to do that anyway uh jeez man this is this is just it’s a cluster f and and i really hate to see it yes i will make a i will right now you know what i’m gonna do this for everybody okay for everyone uh i i don’t care if you’re a course member or not this is for everybody okay under the meet kevin general section i am going and i’ll be in there after this live stream therapy uh i’m gonna say uh meet kevin group therapy we are creating that channel in the public section of discord so you all can go in there and if you want to join this discord just go to met kevin.com chat it’s totally free you’re not going to get access to all the the private channels or whatever uh but that’s okay just go over here meet kevin group therapy and it’s totally free you join that it is uh metcalvin.com chat again metkevin.com chat group therapy okay now uh i’m gonna pour this tequila and we’re gonna look at the sticks so see we’re already we’re already seeing a lot more green in the after hours i expect that i totally totally totally expect a green bounce on monday might be a good time to short i gotta make sure this is a double shot oh it’s almost out that’s that’s a double right i mean that looks like actually a nice thick double you don’t do singles you get a better deal getting doubles actually the best way folks okay look if you are by the dipper or you want to save money in this market what you need to do before you go out if you drink if you don’t drink then this doesn’t apply to you right uh what you do is you uh put coffee cups and tequila in your trunk or like uh your frunk or something like that and you’re gonna be somewhere where you’re gonna be sober uh don’t drink and drive right uh but like you go to a restaurant or something rather than paying twenty dollars for a double tequila at yard house you just bring your double tequila in your starbucks cup there you go anyway uh okay so what do we got all right netflix down 21 carvana got absolutely reamed 14 that’s insane uh 14 from 154 to 135 i mean valuation compression is coming trade desk got re why like like honestly why uh 12 on trade desk why it’s because the institutions are selling everything blah that was oh dang anyway again i’ll be in that discord chat after this live stream if you want to join the therapy discord chat go to metkevin.com chat and i’ll even you know i’ll be here soon exclamation mark okay uh sorry let’s focus on the sticks here arrival folks a rival actually it’s a good company i don’t love the micro factories because i think they’re going to miss out on scale but 13 freaking percent come on man uh the trade desk sell-off is insane a back toll look at this d-wack i mean no surprise that d-wax down nine percent uh look at oh my gosh shift technologies is under two dollars holy crap i thought i was a paper hander when i sold it at like 650.
Okay holy crap under two dollars roblox is is basically going back to ipo prices kathy wood has loaded the boat with this folks look at the lines look at the lines the lines the oh my gosh oh we used to trade in this channel we literally just ran right back into the channel um nancy pelosi’s husband bought a 100 call option you know that guy is getting screwed right now um oh man uh yeah yeah yeah yeah okay um a firm what the hell 57 amazing company amazing partnerships in the frugal decade people are going to need this borrowing reamed reamed absolutely reamed david says i can’t believe you listened to my request of course i always want to listen to uh i want to listen to the community how much uh do you think the tensions between russia and ukraine matter five percent five percent that’s it um let’s keep going yes you’re hilarious in this group therapy chat sorry i’ll be there soon right now we’re doing video therapy wait i just need to have the shot uh a time for 1 pm shots come on mikey have you poured yours let’s go mikey tell me you poured yours tell me you poured yours and we’ll do it with you we’ll do it live uh poured poured with two o’s all right let’s go all right whoever whoever had their time here we go all right tequila i get that i get the jose cuervo okay i it’s i actually like it and it’s cheap best case scenario all right folks a plus and cheers uh i can’t think of other ones salute all right cheers that was a big load but that’s okay i can handle them whoo that was a full one all right so uh by the way my chaser was coffee which is absolutely disgusting like i kind of feel like vomiting right now but instead i’m just gonna have another sip but don’t sue me bro coffee that is disgusting so bad oh so uh pinterest decides to fall under 30 dollars folks look at the lines on pinterest these got absolutely obliterated this is why there is a limit to technical analysis right but the the thing about technical analysis is when you break you know it’s bad when you break the lines you know it’s bad and so it’s like a little early uh early warning shot but look at this over here we’re we we just broke 30 uh 34.
Yeah let’s not talk about pinterest all right no not fair we’re moving on oh god you know what instead of talking about pinterest at 29 how about we just talk about lemonade at 29 look at that one folks reamed absolutely reamed i remember feeling special buying lemonade at ipo at 55 i bought options on lemonade over here in the dirt uh i made tendees on those options over here like i had a great relationship with lemonade i did paper hand all my lemonade at like 65 though there’s like 65 over here kind of glad i did because it had another 50 ahead of it is what it is it is what it is and look i think long term the market’s not going to sell down forever pain does not last forever pain is a short-term phenomenon pain stops when you’re dead or bankrupt i mean sorry pain stops soon like usually it doesn’t last more than than a few months um but anyway talk about matterport oh yeah you could 3d scan your losses into the metaverse somebody posted this in the therapy chat you know i don’t think posting this in the therapy chat is the intention of the therapy chat oh god oh my gosh oh look at matterport today folks it bounced off ten dollars oh oh oh it’s this is worse than a rug pull yeah this this is what i feel like that’s a good one oh this the therapy chat is is apparently therapy memes that are bankrupt what’s the difference cry now or later shouldn’t it mint an nft with your portfolio lost porn so i can make something back oh oh look at the channel somebody wrote uh drew on bitcoin i want to look at my btc let me see how it’s performed let’s go over here or my my charts rather holy what look at it bounce off my support line i you can’t make this stuff up you can go through my live streams you know i don’t manipulate these lines holy crap it is literally perfect remember for a while i’ve been saying like i don’t have any support lines here i don’t know if that’s good or bad it literally bounced off 37.6 actually my line’s at is pretty close to that where’s my line oh it looks like it went a little bit beyond my line my line is at 37.6 oh no no that’s what it oh my gosh that’s what it bounced off look at my line hold on let me hide myself for a second look at this light is insane look at that 37 592 is where my line was the damn thing bounced off 37 618 and people dare to say in the comments if you draw enough lines you’ll hit them wrong ta works okay especially on things that are highly traded the link for the group therapy is metkevin.com chat group therapy hc bedkevin.
com chat that’s insane and i have not even i have not pulled that up today that’s why i reacted like that because i’m like holy crap sometimes i feel like people won’t don’t just don’t believe me but again if you go through the livestream history you know i don’t move them i don’t move the lines i draw the lines and then i leave them and if they don’t become valid anymore they’re still there you know because we either broke through or bounced off uh and and if they don’t become valid i wanna know that they became invalid right that’s extremely important but that is freaking insane okay i’m gonna stop about that now i guess this would be the opportune moment to say get yourself a double shot at tequila and join the courses link down below where i teach you the style of ta that i use because that’s nuts hey you know you may as well take a tax write-off i mean like it’ll help soften some of the blow of the market jeez man look everybody’s suffering okay except the institutions that are shorting those scumbags anyway uh sorry where were we uh oh uh pounds here holy crap man oh look we channeled for a while here on palantir and i mean this like i don’t have lines anymore for pound here it’s so low i do not have lines anymore we literally bobbed off of the my 1790 line which was like the scaffold what the hell oh god dude what the hell square another seven percent like how damn cheap is this company gonna get you know like look at it we had our we had our little little channel over here it’s not the best you can see the lines sometimes aren’t perfect and that’s okay because they give us a good average of the channel but they definitely show us a problem when this is happening i mean it is continued all-time new lows okay i drew a line on hood for giggles i have not looked at hood today i hate to say it i’ve not looked at hood we’re gonna look at hood right now okay okay i drew this line on robin hood for complete giggles because all i did was draw the top to zero and i hate to say it but it’s kind of been following it it went to 1277 today what’s that zero quest wants everyone to stop spamming zero quest is right please please don’t post your meme more than once otherwise i’m going to start banning max 3 if you do it again i’m i’ma personally ban you live although that might motivate you to do it more please just don’t anyway oh my god all right they’re crashing the market on purpose um probably i look listen i hate to say it folks but thanks max retail uh retail is getting reamed by institutions i don’t know who bob kendall is i don’t know if i care about bob right now i hate to say it anyway retail is getting reamed by institutions that’s literally because we keep buying the dip and we are falling into their freaking fracking trap these bastards aren’t going to buy until the fed makes up their goddamn mind on february on march 15th or is it 16 god damn it funcy meetings 16th come on kevin get it right the institutions are not going to stop reaming us and taking money out of our pockets in my opinion until february 16th we’re going to keep getting reamed by these bastards and in fairness it makes sense why if you are a hedge fund or institution are you going to buy the dip before march 16th when we could potentially i don’t believe it’ll happen get a double uh a a double rate hike and look statistically the slowing slow down the chat that’s actually not a bad idea i’ll do that i’ll turn on slow mode so that way it’s just a little bit more sane because i’m going to come into the the therapy chat soon after this live stream which again if you want to join the therapy chat all you have to do is go to medkevin.com chat because you don’t have to pay anything it’s free for all y’all i love it all i will slow the chat i’ll put it on one minute there we go but again why listen look i i really i really want you to do this okay i want you to put yourself in the shoes of a hedge fund manager okay so picture this close your eyes close your eyes do it do it close your eyes okay you right now have 100 million dollars of other people’s money and if you f up they will leave your fund and you will make no money okay you got that picture in your head right you’re picturing a hundred million dollars in your td ameritrade account and you will not make any money this year and you will go bankrupt if you these people gosh i shouldn’t say that on livestream anyway okay all right now now ask yourself this ask yourself this okay are you buying the dip before march 16th when jerome powell could potentially hike rates twice even though we expect inflation to eventually go down in the future and rate hikes to not actually have that much of an impact on the market will you actually buy the dip before that and then face your investors and tell them why you bought the dip before march 16th just ask yourself that okay now that you’ve pictured yourself as an institution look at the stock market uh that’s all i gotta say okay about about that analogy uh i hate to say it i wanna buy the dip i wanna buy the dip so bad i love the dip i wanna put the dip in my face and i to kiss it but i can’t when the hedgies are taking all the love away i’m taking all the fun away god damn all right uh sofi technologies honestly brilliant cup oh that’s that’s holy crap look at sheep okay i drew a fibonacci on sheeb like two months ago holy crap i was not expecting it to go to the zero on the fibonacci it has broken the zero on the fibonacci i mean look at the fibonacci okay it we bounced off very nicely off the 38.2 we really respected 38 2 minus liquidation candle wicks we respected the 23 6.
We even rubber banded to 23 6. and then we just went to zero we are at zero on the sheep fibonacci oh my god oh okay let’s look at solana oh my god i’m scared oh no okay i drew the fibonacci backwards but it doesn’t goddamn matter holy crap oh my god you cannot tell me that ta doesn’t work nobody ever ever ever can tell me that ta doesn’t work again because it literally it is literally sitting on the line and i have not pulled this chart up in weeks oh my god look at this so again i drew the fibonacci backwards the zero percent is supposed to be down here the 100 is supposed to be up here but it doesn’t matter um oh my god look at the bounces folks look at the bounce here the bounce here tentatively this break was your your red flag right here this break was definitely your red flag and you were sitting on the frickin bottom holy crap now i’m scared now now i never want to draw lines again because when i draw lines low they go to them now i feel responsible god damn oh disney at 1 30.
Oh look at the dog look at the red candle on disney oh oh that’s a netflix sell-off right there oh oh oh seven percent on disney oh my gosh such a great company i love this company they’re now charging money for the fast passes these people are freaking brilliant they should have charged money for the fast passes a long time ago yet their stocks getting reamed uh again you can have free group therapy i will be in the free group therapy chat after this live stream all you have to do is go to metkevin.com chat if you don’t think i am insane and you want to invest with me in the future potentially you could go to met kevin.com cashflow medcavan.com cashflow for real estate and stocks in the future i this is a far too far for our time away but met kevin.com cashflow uh or medkevin.
com chat for the free chat those are just three things you could throw in it’s not an email list the metcalf.com slash cashflow they’re literally i’ve sent zero emails to the people who’ve signed up for that it’s literally just like if you want to know if i do anything in the future you you would be the first to know okay god damn docusign oh oh docusign had a floor wait wait hold on hold on hold on hold on hold on oh docusign had a floor of 140.
It had a it says it right here december 16th floor docusign well it was more like a scaffold because it wasn’t a proven floor yet it was a red flag if it would break it 140. okay that’s like here yeah yeah yeah we had a few bounces over here 140. okay what the hell 115 are you kidding me etsy 148 dude why have i been investing since 2020.
now in fairness i bought etsy at 70 bucks when i started but 148 goddamn where’s my cowboy hat it’s not here somebody here just went to the seller a seller to get wine yeah yo we need to get ross gerber on here can we get ross on here to make us all feel better does anybody actually want ross gerber on here to make us feel better i’ll i’ll wait for the chat i’ll look at one more thing here uh end phase 126. dude 126. this is when the company did buybacks the company bought their own stocks back at 120 at like 125-ish okay a lot of yeses except for one no on hating palantir okay what the hell all right well i mean i’ll try um this just sucks it’s not ringing oh there we go never mind i can answer doesn’t sound good dude voicemail how rude yo come on live oh god let’s try camilo i love chris um what’s up chris what up brother dude you want to come on a live stream we’re all panicking over here and drinking alcohol you’re at your bar that’s perfect dude you could pour us some oh let’s go dude oh my gosh let’s talk about it man i’ll send you a link right now all right i’ll send it to you one sec see all right camilo went short on amazon oh dude that’s amazing uh i’m just gonna paste the link to a bunch of people taffy i don’t have kathy’s phone number kathy get out of town kathy would i texted jeremy graham and andre we’ll see if any of them are interested oh my gosh tesla’s at 9 43.
Dude tesla oh my gosh amazon went down 5.95 today holy smokes i want to see if that was a call option or what 5.
73 on arc i remember i shorted arc at a hundred dollars and people like kevin you’re so stupid you’re buying it at you’re shorting it at the bottom that was at a hundred dollars it dropped like 35 or 30 something percent from there almost thirty percent oh my god hold on i gotta i gotta get my headset on that way i could actually hear chris no stop we are suffering sir but we want to hear about your amazon trade after that thing went down like 5.95 today dude i’m so upset with myself because i’ve been sitting on this data for months i amazon’s my number one long position right has been for a while well that in peloton at one point and i hedged my position full hedge about six weeks ago but i should have just put on a full short and that’s what i finally did this morning and here’s what happened amazon data just their search data alone right if if you look at amazon prime if you look at amazon login you look at amazon echo just on g trends five year chart global kind of you know uh aggregate october november december put them together it’s the first time in a long time we’re seeing a dramatic dip it gets dramatic dip year over year just on that search traffic right and you know there’s all kinds of thesis as to what’s happening at amazon in terms of their ecom but i think that november and the first week or so of december was maybe the first period when people slightly started to shift their purchasing back to brick and mortar stores before wow you know omicron hit right like i think we have a five week five to six week period right there that really put a debt in amazon’s holiday quarter we won’t know it until february third but that’s my thesis and it’s also backed up by web stats data that shows and again you know web traffic data is unreliable because it doesn’t capture app data and i don’t have good app data all right dude app data is so hard to get because the subscriptions you pay for suck it used to be cheap about four years ago it got crazy expensive and like unless you’re a wall street fund you just can’t afford to pay for it because they started charging per site now like like if you cross right so it’s like it’s it’s really difficult to get unless you’re really deep in so here’s the thing but web stats data including mobile on a 12-month rolling basis is down for the quarter about nine percent so we’re seeing about nine percent drop in uh web traffic on amazon.com estimated estimated okay it doesn’t include the app so when you combine those things with the thesis it’s just there was too much rent there’s way too much risk especially in this type of a market right if we even see a slight miss on the third amazon could get rocked now now who knows by the third we might be down so much in amazon it might not matter right but like i i’ll tell you what i did so i i full hedged my position about i don’t know before you tell me what you did can i i want to just ask you i have this thesis that if we get good earnings on tech companies the market’s going to go meh but the fed is going to say c good tech earnings more tightening so in other words good news equals bad news and if we get bad earnings price goes down anyway so in other words good news is bad bad news is bad bad all the way around yeah because no one really cares about tech except when it gets start if it starts moving the market too much it gets political and that’s when you see the politics come into play right and that’s what we’ve seen for the past few years at the end of the day you could only be so short because you know that ultimately it’s going to come back to politics i don’t care who’s in office and i oh i just feel like no matter what happens they’ll figure out a way to prop the market at some point i feel that’s the reality we’re living in right now i don’t see it changing anytime soon but it doesn’t mean we’re not going to have these short-term fallouts which is what we’re seeing right now right um but yeah i i went in i purchased uh i have a ton of puts man i i have i have enough puts to cover my entire equity position which is like four and a half million in amazon and then i bought another enough puts to cover like another six million so i’m the equivalent of about six million short in amazon now on top of hedging my whole long position and yeah here’s here’s the stock chart by the way on amazon we trade it sideways for a very long period of time on amazon between the range of three thousand thirty four hundred for quite a long period of time here and then just recently we’ve had this fall down to to i’ve got a line drawn here at about 28 66 looks like we fell to a low of about 2841 today uh so okay but you have shares on this which options did you go for and the money out of the money what’d you do no i i i you know me now i’m not i’m not a kid anymore so i don’t do the out of the money stuff man that that’s like the whole thing that’s right you’re not doing the money all the time man now this is the concern this is the new conservative i got a family i got a house right no i i do um this is generally i purchased only in the money i bought the 3100 puts uh i had a ton of them expiring today and i bought today so i doubled down i triple down on them this morning so today was really weird right because today i was like normally i would exit the puts that expired today and then reissue more puts for february i think it was like the week of february 3rd right but i said you know what let’s just have them all roll into the end of today so i let my old put stay for the day and i’ve added my new puts so i had an insane number of puts right on amazon yeah and so like today just honestly my account was even for the day can you believe that across the portfolio even so i know i hate saying this because so many people that i love are also in amazon and they’re not protected and it’s not like i want to see amazon get hit but if it’s going to get hit i want to see it get hit in the next two weeks so i can come on that because because i’m not going to be in that position post earnings like whatever happens post earnings i’m taking off the position i’m long amazon again whatever it is right oh you’re are you closing your put the day after earnings or the day before earnings day day after uh okay you know i might trade i might trade down if you know as as amazon continues to fall i don’t want to own puts that 400 points in the money that’s not the objective here so i’ll likely trade down i’ll always own puts that are about 100 bucks in the money on amazon enough to kind of help me out like i’m not going to pay pure premium like the premium the premium piece obviously goes down um but i don’t want to own 400 of in the money put so that’s never going to are you worried at all that you’re going to get like a volatility crush the day after earnings well yeah but you got to remember for this it’s it’s mainly it’s it’s it’s a true it’s a true trade right like the trade-based thesis and data so like i’m willing i’m willing to risk the volatility crush when i actually have a thesis a narrative with data backing it up even though the data is like i’m gonna admit the data is a little inconsis it’s a little shaky right i don’t have the app data also you gotta remember aws right if amazon crushes aws this quarter that could save everything we could see a huge pop on amazon even if the ecom is down if they crush aws so like i don’t have good data on aws i used to have good data i don’t have it anymore you know they’re they’re shutting down alexa.com which was actually a really good tool for for tracking websites and amazon owns alexa.com so so now we lose that resource for website analytic data why do you think they’re doing that you know alexa.
com was always okay it’s i i don’t know what their issues alexa i just think it’s not really that interesting of a business for them similar web is the kind of monster in that space uh most most of the funds i know are using similar web you got to pay you’re gonna have to pay like you know well over ten thousand dollars a year to get the year-over-year data on it but it’s for me to me it’s a no-brainer i have to have it i can’t live without it what about apps like who would you use for app analytics uh okay so so uh uh app annie right like annie’s gonna be your best i think it always has been i know there’s a few new players in that in that space but app annie’s probably the strongest in terms of overall data they’re very very expensive um the last time i checked like i said they were charging per uh purse you know per app to get real they got the data that you really want like the year-over-year data like the actual to see eclipsing data year-over-year um it was pretty expensive so okay so you’re short amazon what about uh what about the market i mean what what’s what’s stopping you from just taking money off the table while also shorting is it just because you’re trying to hedge are you are you just long-term bullish on the market what do you think about the feds no i’ve taken i’ve taken you know i was 85 percent levered a few months ago get this as of this morning i’m zero percent left zero percent lever dude zero um okay so you’ve been taking off you’ve taken off almost half your portfolio i i have a list of stocks on a notepad on my phone and and the caption is re-research and maybe buy back at some point in the future there’s like 40 on there like there’s 40.
Like i this is not a time to be speculating on stuff you can’t keep up with if i don’t really have conviction or if it’s not like a forever stock for me it’s not in my portfolio right now i’ve been selling for three months straight and it took me three months to get down to zero percent it’s tough it’s hard it’s hard you know you like you have conviction and the the the market environment is all that matters right now it’s a very hard time to be a social art trader like i am because even if you nail one piece of information on the stock you know big market moves are going to take you down now that said i don’t know if you’re watching the show man but we nailed the ritzya uh earnings a couple weeks ago do we just that was our biggest call of the quarter um it’s a canadian a power retailer and really you know not many people follow the stock probably one of the biggest tick tock apparel uh stories of the quarter you can’t go on tick tock without seeing auritzia being propped up by every other girl so really proud of that one and held up even in this market but honestly there’s not enough there’s not a lot that we see where we’re like hey this is such a strong thesis that it will out maneuver in the market right now so we’re just staying out and you know me man i’m all in nfts right now like i’m obsessed dave’s pissed off at me he won’t let me do nft shows like we’re fighting about like he wants me to do stocks because our audience likes stocks i’m like no dude nfts are everything right now to me so i’m obsessed dude well so i gotta know uh i was thinking about buying crypto punk when we met uh recently in in what october or something like that a lot has changed yeah so ethereum the last time i checked which doesn’t include the price drop over the last 24 days or sorry 24 hours the last time i checked uh ethereum was down about 15 and the crypto punks were down about 40 percent and i’m wondering how do you stay ahead of the curve on the nfts when it appears that it’s very fattish to where right now everybody wants the mutant apes uh you know how do i stay ahead of that kind of curve it’s not a part-time job i’m putting in seven to eight hours a day seven days not five days seven days a week i have guys i just spoke to a guy today who has seven he made a his buddy made it a billion and a half in the last two years trading nfts he has seven full-time seven full-time analysts doing nothing but nft research 24 7.
This is a space to where if you put in the work i’m not going to say you can’t lose but if you put in the work there is so much arb alpha in just basically identifying where people are moving like for example a few weeks ago asian market nft started hitting like that that’s a huge cycle right um the female nfts have exploded the last few weeks we’re on top of all this right i poured into female mfts some of them were up four five six x uh right now it’s all about pde gaming right so when you talk to me i was actually really long punks i sold two of my three punks gone i’m keeping one because i’m kind of attached to it and you never know but punks have made all the wrong moves you have to provide real utility a real road map that shows people you have a plan to potentially build a venture scalable business around that project now you don’t have to execute right now you just have to show the plan and the in those projects that are best at painting a picture of a multi-year project to a venture scalable project around that nft those are the ones that are winning right now you have to have tokens you have to have pde gaming okay you have to have all of these elements and of course you have to have a thriving community that is real right not just can you clarify p to e gaming i mean player played in gaming play to earn oh okay okay okay because i i know as a as a gamer player versus environment and player versus player but you’re saying play to earn like axe infinity style you know yeah well i wouldn’t think i mean yes actually infinity is certainly a play to earn but it’s evolving so quickly that when i say play to earn it could be something as simple as just simply having in-game currency that’s owned by the nft project uh supporters right it does it could be as simple as a next generation fortnight that instead of using whatever bucks that they use in fortnite are using a token that the game was created around that is initially owned by the nft you know owners right of that project so that’s kind of what we’re seeing ever all these nft projects are developing different types of games pixel vaults developing a aaa game that’s going to be available on like an xbox or playstation right cool cats is building out a neopets farmville type of game right so there’s all different types of gaming for different types of audiences so you need to identify the leader projects in each of these niches that have the strongest communities the strongest teams that are actually able to put out a solid business plan of what they might be able to achieve two three four years out those are the projects that are flying right now wow wow wow that’s incredible um right now as as we’re filming this just the last 10 minutes we’ve had a little bit of a btc sell-off here it looks like uh right now we’ve gone from uh i don’t know just probably when you joined about 10 minutes ago we were sitting around the 38 level now we’re sitting almost at 37.
What what do you take i mean like how low can we go on some of these coins when does the pain end i can’t it’s very difficult to like you know what i do is i identify information that’s underappreciated that i surface or my community services and i try to connect the dots to investment opportunity it’s really tough doing that with like bitcoin and ethereum these days so it’s a totally different type of investment kevin i don’t even try like i have my ethereum i have my bitcoin um i’m gonna for lack of better words probably in it for life you know i’m saying like i’ll slowly add to it over time but i’m not the best person to try to time these movements in ethereum and and bitcoin it’s just not my game like i’m more granular i’m trying to focus on the stuff where there’s meaty information that hasn’t been discovered that i know is about to be discovered right so it’s like that’s that’s kind of my wheelhouse when it comes to nfts and crypto by the way crypto coins i was really big into lit you know the litcoin have you heard of it how about it yep so like i was i think one of the top first two or three hundred few hundred people in lit oh my gosh so like that was that was a narrative that i i wasn’t exactly sure if it was a narrative that would evolve into a full meme coin right like a doge uh or she but like i was confident that it was a narrative that was gonna gain some amount of traction based on the actual deliverables that they were gonna bring to market which is exactly what happened so like lit was a fun one i have a small position in lit now relative to what i did have a couple few weeks ago but i don’t really do the coin stuff that much unless it’s related to a project related to a pde game right on that question what about like an army and and vive uh you know with like the disney uh patent style uh nfts not game related though so maybe not your neck of the woods there but yeah you know it’s crazy man i can only keep up with so much i’m familiar with them i just haven’t gone i haven’t done my own deep dives so like i don’t have the conviction i don’t i’m not fully educated on what the expectation is on those what are they down to well this is no no i was just putting btc back up the last time i put it up we were here and we just got that this is just the minute chart so it’s you know the one i got you know the one i got caught up in and i i wish i would have brought you in early because i feel that you would have thrived in it and i’m actually in the process of kind of pseudo-exiting it because like i have i’m too in it wolf game like i was like one of the very first in wolfgang i had like seven figures well over seven figures in wolf game and like it got so crazy that i’m like i don’t have time for this man like i’m gonna i’m gonna i’m slowly kind of pulling some my stuff out of wolf game i’m like i’m gonna let other people mess with this at this point because it got to a point where it just kind of took off but like you got to get in early it’s all about getting in a day early a week earlier an hour early and if that you got to be working it seven days a week because you never it could pop up at 3am right something could pop up yeah this is incredible thank you so much for for coming on here are you drinking right now because i mean i’ll have a shot with you but if you’re at work let’s not i’m not i’m not but you got to get to dallas man you’ve got to get the dallas to come to chelsea corner dude this place is so great dude first of all this is our game room where is this shout out where it is the name of it right everything it’s a bar it’s a it’s a beautiful beautiful place right now big fan right here by the way i love you so much that i was well i watch you in my shower now that sounds weird but i have a tv in my shower this i won’t even do anything but check you on the morning openings every day i love you cheers man the best part is he says that he actually has a tv dude and then check out this uh wait wait ah door’s locked hold on you gotta come to dallas man because look at this patio dude oh my gosh all right this spring all right buddy all right man thank you all right later today wow wow wow that that was incredible uh shout out to chris camillo uh you can look up their uh youtube channel it’s a dumb money dumb money live both channels yeah shout out to chris for coming on uh ben mala maybe uh we’ll be able to chat with him on uh monday i have not heard from our buddy ross i feel like we need wrongs uh i’m just going to try calling him it again because if people don’t answer the first time just call again uh otherwise uh we’ll we’ll look at the sticks one more time especially crypto falling right now look at this crypto fall oh yeah we’re going straight down to the orange lines i got drawn scary uh i don’t think i’m gonna get ross that’s okay you know people got jobs too they can’t just answer the phone willy nilly whenever you call not saying that chris doesn’t chris chris was also working um okay so no go on ross all right uh we are now dropping to the second uh pain point here on uh uh on on btc here um let’s briefly look at how after hours are doing hey protera’s actually up four percent but the darn thing was down almost 10 today you got to be kidding me lucid’s up a little bit in the after hours lucid was down about two and a half percent today and game stop was up three percent today but down two percent in the after hours peloton up 11 but only on news that maybe the rumor was false that they are shutting down production uh i’ll try jeremy let’s try jeremy let’s try uh and then we’re going to therapy discord join at met kevin.com chat for the free therapy discord i’m going into after this yo bro we need you man we need you uh right now i’m live we got about 17k folks hanging out here and they want to hear from you dude you got six minutes then hop on bro all right dude i send you the link thanks bye he’s like i got a meeting in six minutes i’m like perfect you got six minutes let’s go uh so we’ll uh we’ll throw uh jeremy on here in just a second when he pops anyway um golly let’s just keep looking at some of these l’s here so sophie arkamoto dude arkamoto six freaking dollars that thing’s like 30 short oh oh end phase we talked about them being at 126 about how this is last time when they were starting to do buybacks which is insane uh let me send jeremy individually the link just in case there we go at amazon short sounded interesting but he gosh chris camillo’s hedging with weekly puts super super high theta every single day that stuff just plummeting on just theta decay so you you got to be right on a weekly puts that’s scary that’s scary all right one second oh there we go what up brother dude what’s happening man what’s going on man just pain pain pain pain dude what are you doing in this market because everybody’s got to know like when is it pain gonna end and and like how long can we really buy the dip on this yeah so uh i was a net buyer but i did reallocate some fun so i’m trying to go more heavy toward needs base um i just got a couple of things i’ll pull up here let me flip these so you mean like uh like tattoo chef yeah well uh i would say i would say yeah food companies diaper companies i bought i bought this honestly i said i bought the planet today i said we diapers and food that’s all we need to survive in a recession man but uh i i don’t know how to flip my camera unfortunately in this i wanted to show you guys a couple of things that was like if you want you could screenshot it to me and text it to me and i could pull it up oh that’s sort of worth it okay i’m gonna i’m gonna send you two items here um that are you know or something i’m looking at that’s rather concerning um well i would describe it more as rather concerned and i would love to hear your opinion on this too and by the way kevin what are you up to because i’m i’m hearing rumors i see comments people are saying kevin kind of sold stocks like what what’s going on here with i got a big video on that coming out a little later so we’ll don’t get real okay okay okay okay yeah i saw like at least a few people comment so i’m like oh boy so here’s so you sent me this this is a google trends search term for auto loan and you see a plummet from probably an average of about 80 in relative strength to about 50.
So you’re seeing auto loans plummet which looks like what the last three months or what’s what’s that inflection point there three months or what yeah it looks like it the last two to three months things have just kind of fallen off a cliff and that that goes with kind of what elon was saying when he was predicting uh recession when he tweeted that at the end of december and uh i think you i think you even covered that in the video and that was very ominous that that he would just you know tweet hey i think there’s and for that quick amount of time he’s like in the spring and summer that’s yeah put your head out there and be like hey i think we’ve got to recite he’s got to be seen something and then the other one i sent you was home loan which is also dropped off a cliff uh last two months in that one same thing yeah same thing dude holy smokes yeah so um there that’s the thing there’s been some big changes in the market recently that i think folks should at least pay attention to or be aware of um that you know are definitely a little worrisome and so it’s like are we going to flip this baby and go back the other way or we’re going to stay down here a while so yeah do you think this is all going to be predicated on what the federal reserve does we’ve got two meetings coming up jan 25 march 16th do you think if the fed turns dovish by march 16th we can start going rally mode again for 2022 or are we going to the r the recession uh well here’s my word kevin i think the the fed jay has been lagging this entire time right um i remember speaking about inflation inflation’s going crazy and i would hear jay powell go and talk a few days later whatever and he’d be like oh there’s no there’s inflation’s very moderate and i was like dude i see it in the real world i talk with people that own businesses and they’re seeing inflation go crazy and so the thing i’m scared about is that they’re going to keep looking at backwards indicators they’re not going to be looking at stuff like google trends data they’re not out in the real world and so they could end up raising rates and and i think this is i think we’re going to go into a time period where you do not want to raise rates and uh i gave an analogy earlier i said imagine you’re you’re in the middle of forest and you have this backpack and you have um you know seven protein bars in and you got a gallon of water right so you could say uh well i got seven days on this trip i’m gonna eat all seven protein bars right now and drink the whole gallon of water right now that’s essentially what the fed did uh you know in the peak of ronan rona pumped it with stimulus pumped it with money and now we’re in this situation where they they they seem like they’re not going to help at all and i’m i’m looking at some of this data and i’m like oh boy this is getting troublesome so oh wow so now i i you got to go in about like 30 seconds right yes yeah okay okay so so real quick uh is the consumer going to stay strong through this or are they going to start hoarding cash leading to bad q1 forecasts i’m i’m leaning toward hoarding cash if they have any cash and keep your eye on the savings rates folks because yeah it’s been plummeting down and unfortunately that’s a lagging indicator too i wish we had one up to date right now i think we’d be in a really bad spot so um yeah anyway thank you for coming go to your two o’clock thanks man thank you thank you everybody okay folks we got trey’s trades coming on next uh trey’s trades coming on next uh ready probably within the next eight minutes or so uh so uh okay while we wait for trey take a look at this folks i kid you not you saw you literally saw me have these lines i have not changed these lines at all okay i don’t do that i leave my lines look at where freaking btc is bouncing and tell me ta doesn’t work please come tell me that ta doesn’t work a freaking perfect bounce a perfect freaking bounce off a 37.6 where our line is and you could literally not paint that bounce off the 36 188 any freaking better my line is at 36 160.
Let me hide myself for a moment look at that my line is at 36 160 that was a bounce within 28 points on btc that is nuts nuts and and people say ta don’t work uh anyway uh okay so so let’s talk about uh while we wait for trey’s trade uh trey’s trades coming up let’s uh let’s briefly just just talk about a little bit of what jeremy just said okay we i sent a message to matt too uh yo hold on i said another one here okay oh um we are getting a nice little bouncy on btc but let’s talk about what jeremy just talked about because those are interesting search trends okay what i’m going to do is i’m going to manipulate these short changes or not my changes i’m going to manipulate these search trends a little bit but with my own search terms i’m going to start with what jeremy gave so we can look at a little bit of uh the detail on this so let’s type in auto loan uh and i’m probably going to change this to car loan because i don’t i don’t think a lot of people are going to personally type in auto versus car but maybe maybe maybe so look at that drop off folks the drop-off started october first-ish uh that’s not so uh okay so drop off over here at about what is this october 1st september 26th plummet look at that shift that’s nuts now i want to go relative okay what i’m going to do is i’m going to push this back a little bit more than a year let’s push this back five years oh oh oh look at that it’s it’s at it’s at the lowest point in five years for auto loan you gotta be freaking kidding me all right let’s do carlon carla ah oh the same thing what what get your alcohol ready holy smokers this ain’t no jokers hey folks if you need therapy make sure to join the free discord chat we we made a therapy section under metkevin.com chat uh if in the future you potentially maybe no guarantees want to invest with me in either real estate or stocks throw your information in at metkevin.com cash flow you will not get any emails until i actually have something to announce so don’t ask me for updates because so far there have been zero emails anyway okay then we did home loan let’s look at home loan and i’m gonna try mortgage as as another one oh the last time we were at these levels were uh december of 2020 briefly because we’ve fallen below these levels the last time we really fell below these levels was when the stock market was going to poopy here at the end of 2018 briefly here at the end of 2017.
Actually you this co i wonder if this is seasonal though okay so that’s that’s a problem is if this is just seasonal so now we’re comparing seasons right because it does look like we get a seasonal decline in november to december november to december at homeless that actually makes sense but this seasonal decline is at its low about 5 to 10 points less so that’s for home loan let me go back to car loan for a second or auto loan uh oh i just got a heads up that tether hit 95 cents on some exchanges and if you watched my titanic video you’ll see the shout out to tether uh yeah look at this folks that is be below other seasonal figures folks this is not just a seasonal decline here in uh in auto loans that is a substantial turn to the downside okay so we did home loans auto loans i don’t know let’s try uh you know chris camillo was talking about amazon let’s give amazon a shot over here see amazon itself is actually still looking strong probably the strongest holiday season it had but remember folks it’s not going to be about uh about the q4 it’s going to all come down to forecasts forecasts are going to be what tank this market and i think there is no good news to be had because if earnings come in strong they motivate the fed to taper more and to race hikes more if earnings come in weak the market tanks all right let me try uh tickets uh plane tickets i’m just gonna try that really quick plane tickets okay the lowest oh my gosh look at this no freaking way dude the lowest the absolute freaking lowest point on airline tickets was april 5 2020 when the damn lockdown started look at where we are now folks almost as low almost as low we’re at a relative strength of 16 we went as low as 15 in november and the low over here was 15 14 and 13.
That’s ridiculously close oh dear okay let me do this let me see what the institutions are saying right now all right let’s see what the institutions are saying um all right we’re going to load up this uh you know what let’s listen to cmc just for a second while we wait for trey tell you they’re more indicative of telling you a change in sentiment but look the s p is still 30 percent above pre-covered levels and i remember back in that may june period of 2020 we we kind of pondered when will stocks get back above their pre-kobit levels when will we kind of take out covid and just kind of get back to normalcy well mostly stocks and i mean starbucks nike um you know target went more than 50 through those pre-covered levels and then you go back to a chart like amazon which looks like it wants to scream back to that pre-covered level and so um you know i think this gets back to that that place where sentiment is um and and i think a lot of people are very concerned really what was real or what was not and certainly in terms of stimulus um the fed had a lot to do with what was not real bk it sounds like you’re you’re thinking you know to heck with trying to figure out the valuation the right multiple for the overall markets you’re going for very specific idiosyncratic stories and i was hoping you can walk me through mp i think that’s an interesting one because it harkens back to your roots as being i really want to talk to trey’s trade but i’m going to lose it if i don’t go to the bathroom really quick because that alcohol just hit me so watch cnbc for just like one minute yeah yeah i mean molly corp that’s what mp used to be called was just what a fantastic trade that was and i’m back into mp so here’s here’s the logic on it is that we are in a very rough geopolitical landscape most of the rare earths in the world come from china you need these rare earths to make that electric vehicle and to make batteries and all of that it is unlikely that you’re going to have china have 90 control over that there is currently one publicly traded rare earth mine in the u.s that’s the mountain pass mine mp corp is the stock and so for me it doesn’t necessarily matter whether or not the multiple is right or whether or not earnings are right what i’m playing it for is there’s going to be a geopolitical event where the u.s says hey wait a second all rare earths that we produce that we have here we need to start producing these things and by the way corporations you can’t buy from china anymore alternatively the situation could be what happened the last time and china started to restrict the supply so either way the supply gets restricted i don’t have to worry about what the fed’s going to do it’s just kind of this idiosyncratic very specific trade all right let’s move on and talk about netflix the stock plunging 22 for its worst day since 2012 the drop cut netflix’s valuations you’re just under 35 next year 35 times next year’s earnings that’s on par with the likes of disney costco the new york times and vail resorts two of our traders took the opportunity to buy shares today karen you’re one of them i never thought i’d hear you say i bought netflix today but here we are i know here we are and you’d think i would have learned that after last year not not you know paying attention to the three-day rule to my great detriment that i would have done nothing today but i actually i just couldn’t help myself so i bought a tiny bit of netflix just right around where it closed and i you know i haven’t had the chance to buy it at this valuation now maybe that’s maybe that’s a chance i don’t want to have but i do think that people are just puking it out i like seeing all the analysts downgrades that sort of fuels the puke further and i think we’ll see more momentum to the downside and i you know some of the things that they cited are we should be a little concerned about however i do think in the past they have been under promisers and over deliverers and we could see that again and see a quick rebound so okay sorry i just had to go to the bathroom worse than austin powers in the first video when you woke up after being hydrogenically frozen um but trey’s here oh hell yeah let’s go what up what’s up how you doing it’s been a minute dude it has been a minute thank you so much for coming on man dude what is going on out there man dude the uh the market looks pretty pretty awful it’s dark it’s dog this is uh this is not a good time to be in unless you’re playing puts uh unfortunately but it’s man it depends on how deep you want to get i’ve been uh i’ve been really diving into the last sort of 100 years of macroeconomics and i think there’s a lot of parallels between current you know economy and what you saw a hundred years ago even down to as well as it sounds henry ford compared to elon musk sort of leading different revolutions wait 100 years ago you’re talking about leading to the great depression correct oh i don’t think we’re there yet though kevin i don’t think we’re there so this is this is kind of my thesis right what i see right now is the parallels between a few things you can see that we had an issue with a pandemic back in the 1900s right you had the spanish flu now you’ve got coven right causes this short term sort of uh recession you get a nice little bit of growth and now we’ve entered into uh sort of a supply and demand chain issue here we have too much demand not enough supply and what i think you’re gonna watch happen is an overproduction in the coming years of uh supply which won’t be able to meet demand so right now we’re watching sort of the effects of stimulus and of this incredible demand uh inflation’s going up you’re seeing rates start to rise i think that’s gonna cause a little recession and then from there i think you’re going to get another couple good years of roaring 20’s esque sort of uh stock market which is which is pretty interesting that’s a that’s a piece of it but i don’t think this is the end of the world yet i think it’s a blip so we we had a recession in in the early uh like before the great depression but it was sort of more minor short term and then then we had this rally period are you almost suggesting that potentially we could see a mega kind of collapse towards the end of the decade i think that’s kind of the direction this is going so if you look back into sort of the last great depression one of the things that i noticed that i think you are going to see again is deflation and that sounds kind of weird right but yeah when you think about it you’ve got massive i think incoming hyperinflation on the horizon and that’s going to lead to what i think is going to be like i mentioned earlier uh too much supply people are going to over produce for the demand that’s currently rocking because it’s so easy and accessible to borrow cash uh and when that time comes i think you really have a risk of seeing deflation sort of take root again and i think that’s uh something that could obviously lead to another depression of sorts i mean you can’t look at the us economy and see that 40 something percent of money was printed in the last two years and pretend that’s not gonna have an effect on things uh i think that’s kind of where we’re sitting but i don’t know i’d like to hear your thoughts kevin it’s been it’s been a minute since i’ve been able to sit down and chat with you let’s uh let’s have a talk well thank you for that uh i mean that’s it’s really interesting you say that because i i just pulled this up i drew this on my whiteboard i was talking to a few different people about this and i was talking about this a little bit earlier i feel like and i want to hear your thoughts about this i feel like the the economies on this teeter-totter balance where we we can go in three directions one direction we can go is extreme growth and hyperinflation but that’s going to lead to recession because they’ll raise hikes like they did or raise rates like they did in the 70s extreme growth hyperinflation not good uh if we go in that full deflation massive slowdown we’ll also go to a recession um the the bliss where where like the hope is is that we get a disinflation so less of this high inflation and just slowing down and then just chill the f out uh and so i think we’re on this insane teeter-totter what do you make of that well i gotta be honest with you my my faith in the fed is is not great i don’t know it’s kind of hard to uh it’s kind of hard to have faith in jay powell when when your solution is sort of this this is maybe controversial i i would say it’s not but he just seems to to kind of bow down to the masses right whoever is kind of talking in his ears saying ah you should probably tighten things up you should loosen things up it just goes back and forth and that’s not accomplishing all it is is is halfway doing something and it prolongs the inevitable effect of what i think is going to be a necessary uh recession you know and for worse if it’s not taking care of a depression so yeah i guess it really depends on him picking a direction you know that’s uh at the end of the day what it comes down to are you gonna tighten are you gonna loosen things up we can’t play this in between no kidding i i honestly i feel like you know to me it really pissed me off that he was so consistent with the it’s gonna be transitory it’s gonna be transitory still consistent with that which you know that’s laughable itself but it was only after his job was threatened that all of a sudden the federal reserve and and the the december minutes were the most bearish we’ve ever seen jay powell got his job back it’s almost like biden whispered in his ear a uh you know i need this inflation under control so i could get build back better plan done and i can get reelected right and all of a sudden you get this massive u-turn and the fed’s like oh no we gotta taper faster and raise hikes or raise rates faster what do you think about that is is he being politically manipulated you know i i think it’s undeniable that even though parties such as the sec and the fed are supposed to be bipartisan you know they’re supposed to just do their job they are influenced by politics you know i look at gary gensler for example uh and it’s a very similar situation where i think there’s probably somebody whispering in his ear saying hey look this is uh probably not what you should go after we should just kind of let this be and it’ll fix itself and in the same way that uh jay powell is is kind of just pussyfooting around the same stuff you know uh i do think it’s political and that’s i don’t think you really need to have a tin foil hat on or a cowboy hat on to to think that uh that’s that’s just based on what we see you know people can talk all they want but at the end of the day what speaks to me is exactly what you said right his job was on the line and he completely flipped his position from inflation is transitory which he invented first of all i’ve never heard the word transitory until it came out of his mouth and i had to google it and i laughed and now it’s now it’s the exact opposite you’re seeing the repercussions of what everybody’s known for the last nine months it’s it’s completely political and it’s it’s garbage it’s pretty sad trey what do we do now well this is uh i actually made a video about this yesterday and it’s obviously never a fun topic there’s a lot of people who are uh stressing especially long’s in the market right now i mean you know i’m the amc guy right i like amc it’s it’s a it’s it’s a good stock i think it still has upside but in the short term right you can’t control what the broad market’s doing it’s uh it’s a piece of a really large puzzle so what you got to do is hedge your positions i’m a i’m a trader at heart right when i first got into stocks i swing traded things and the the benefit of that is at the end of every day when i trade i sit pretty cash heavy and i’m able to sort of take a look at the market on a day-to-day basis and adjust as necessary oh it looks like things are going to be kind of green today i don’t really have to hedge that much i don’t have to play puts on the spy i don’t have to play uh calls on the vix i don’t know you can kind of decide that for yourself you know but uh when it’s when it’s red you know you know what you got to do so i think it’s crucial for people to hedge their long positions right now otherwise they’re just going to sit there and bleed you know no one likes that that’s interesting because you know so so much of our our uh the retail culture has always been so anti uh shorts and and hedging and when i think of institutions i i try to there are definitely scummy ones out there there are many scummy hedge funds out there and institutions out there but i also do think there is a very large percentage of institutions that they just don’t want to lose their clients by doing a bad job for them so they have to hedge uh as like their net more long but they have to hedge to make sure they don’t lose those customers so is that maybe a lesson to learn in the retail community that hey like when when it’s time to go into a down market like what we’re essentially experiencing now maybe it is okay to put on that 10 20 put or maybe even more you know this is actually something i talked about not too long ago i think when i first got on the market i’ll tell a story i despised all shorts all of them they’re all terrible people i view them all as my enemy and i said to myself this is the reason that i’m losing money today right uh the truth of the matter is there are good shorts and there are bad shorts right there’s shorts out there who abuse the market to abuse the system uh they’ll make it short sell they’ll use derivatives blah blah blah whatever there’s a bunch of ways they can do it uh same as there’s bad longs right there’s longs that that buy stocks the right way and there’s longs who pump and dump stocks the truth of the matter is if you’re protecting your capital you’re not doing anything wrong you don’t want to be fighting the market and that’s not to say that you should cash out of long positions right because in the end of the day if you think a year two years three years from now it’s gonna be worth more money why would you sell you know right but it is to say in the short term while you’re waiting it’s okay to make money that’s the whole point or at least to stop yourself from losing money so i think it’s kind of a hard truth that at times retail has to you know come to grips with is that it’s okay to to play puts uh in in a bearish or an uncertain volatile market because all you’re doing is protecting yourself you’re not the hedge fund or the institution or the market maker that’s doing nefarious things you’re you’re a guy you can’t even move the market you know kevin i i don’t think you and of yourself you’ve got a decent decent portfolio you know how maybe you can move the market a penny or two you know if you play this buy you know what i’m saying like we don’t make a difference alone protect yourself that’s it at the end of the day what about timing when does this end does this end when the federal reserve finally makes a decision in march or is it gonna be their january meeting which comes up uh this wednesday or are we waiting until june or later this year i think you’re gonna see a similar situation to what we saw in march of 2020.
I think you’re gonna have a couple months two to three months of pretty uh pretty harsh sort of up and down volatile conditions in the market and then you’re probably gonna see a recovery and i think what the catalyst is going to be if i had to take a guess is the first rate hike that’s probably announced because if you look historically right you can raise rates and still have a bullish market it’s probably not gonna be as good as it could have been right but i don’t think we have enough of a catalyst to call this a true crash this is sort of like the market finally reacting to what it should have probably reacted to in the last year you know that’s ultimately at the end of the day to me what do you think well i i couldn’t agree more i think that uh the fear that we have over the federal reserve raising rates is really overblown i think there’s a limit to how high bond yields can go and and the fed could i mean the funds rate could actually be higher than the 10 year which which historically has happened uh and so i don’t it does seem like the market is just really overblowing this fear but because we have these fed dates coming up i think everything is going to be a sell the news i think if earnings are good it’s going to be sell the news because then it’s oh well now we’re we’re overheating so the fed’s going to have to taper more if earnings are bad well then it’s going to be sell that news because earnings are bad we look at netflix right what do you think how much of a catalyst could earnings really have i think in the in the market conditions that we’re in right now you want to be very careful about a pop in a fade you know i think that’s what i’ve kind of seen across all stocks in the last two to three weeks is they can have great news you can have these these one-off squeeze plays right the latest was bbig had a good couple days i looked like it had a really solid gamma ramp in the making and i just kind of faded because the market’s not that strong right now so myself my tendency as a trader if i’m going to take a position if i’m trying to play earnings whatever i’m selling the news for sure because it’s just you don’t have enough strength all you have to do is look at the chart by the way you’ve leveled up your ta a lot kevin and that’s that’s freaking cool to see so i’m glad you hopped on that train keep defending please please keep defending ta because i i fight the same battle but anyway i appreciate that you can oh thank you so much you and matt are great everybody should follow uh make sure to search ma mat cores and trace trades right now y’all are amazing so thank you for that oh you’re gonna make me blush man so but that’s actually interesting because so i’ve been calling these uh these little micro rallies that we’ve been getting usually in the first half of the day but we’ve had a lot of these over the past six to eight weeks these little micro rallies sometimes they last a day or two conviction lists rallies in other words it seems like they always seem to sell off and they generally tend to sell off the second half of the day i kind of can’t help but feel like institutions are trying to play us that they’re they’re taking advantage of the by the dippers to get out uh or to trade the by the dippers and they always close their positions by the end of the day what’s your take on that well it’s no secret that uh that institutions have have specific narratives right anytime you look at mainstream media anytime you hear a big figurehead talk the only thing that i can think of is is what is actually happening behind the scenes right so here’s an example jim cramer pumping netflix was he actually bullish on netflix or was he trying to unload some institutional banks i don’t know the ties that cnbc has with other institutions right who knows it says it’s you can’t know unless you’re there but uh i i tend to just not pay attention to what these guys are saying because i think exactly what you said i think that there are institutions that are trying to unload bags i think anytime you have a raised price target it’s probably for a reason it’s not to help you uh you know it’s it’s too much of a pattern to ignore the spy the last three or four days has pumped the first two hours of the day and then knifed and uh that’s that’s happening across the entire market so you’re spot on the money man that’s exactly what i think it is that’s incredible uh you know uh and from after the election uh this this california governor campaign that i placed the third in uh i a one of one of the top news anchors in california i won’t mention which station they sat down with me for coffee and they said kevin you’ve got to realize we sometimes are forced to read scripts that we don’t agree with or that we know are untrue we get told from the executives what to do and what to say and we’re talking like all the way up to like the rupert murdoch levels right like like way up like that’s where the news comes from they tell us what to say and if we don’t like it we get fired so uh like that to me was really mind opening and mind-blowing and mind-opening because you know during the election i was always so frustrated about why why would the news stations pretend that somebody who’s actually pulling extremely well it doesn’t even get a mention on some stations like cnn like cnn went as far as lying to say there was no leading candidate in the same party as the governor running against the governor it was it was insane we had to send him a cease and desist letter but it was when i met with that executive that i realized wait a minute it’s rigged man like that more and more it’s rigged and so what you just said about jim cramer i didn’t think about but you might be right it could just be you know the whole investing club or whatever and look you know i this is just full opinion here we don’t want to get screwed or anything you know we got the don’t sue me bro mug here okay but what you’re saying kind of makes sense like hey institutions got to unload some netflix bags before earnings hey let’s get that cramer pump going you know he’s done some really good pumps man all you have to do is look at his track record you know you look at bear stearns you look at netflix you look at peloton he liked he liked uh palantir at 28 dollars but he didn’t like it at 23.
I i don’t know there’s just too many times now i’m a pattern guy right if you see a pattern three times right you see something happen you should raise an eyebrow that’s that’s at the very least what i think people should be doing because these guys do not want you to win i view the stock market in this sort of way right when you win it’s because somebody else lost and institutions want you to lose that’s it at the end of the day they’ve got a whole bunch of new retail investors on the market as of about a year ago because of the gamestop and amc saga and uh you know stimulus money and the market was just ripping like it’s never ripped before and how can we get that in our pockets is sort of what these guys are thinking in my opinion right who knows at the end of the day but you can look at pattern you can look at trend you can look at what people say on mainstream media which is why personally i’m not going on mainstream media these days you know i it just start asking questions you know it’s uh i’d like to hear more about this executive story man ah that’s so cool that you can make that sort of stuff happen well uh you know it’s uh i don’t know uh it was probably one of those things where it wasn’t worth the amount of time and effort that went into but i probably spent about two to three hundred hours doing interviews with different news agencies and and some of the the reporters they they just it was almost like we built a relationship some of them i mean i’m talking like mainstream reporters on on fox or fox business or whatever they’re like hey we should go to lunch sometime they’re inviting me right and uh it and it’s interesting because uh there it it it’s all it’s all a game and they’re willing nobody’s gonna say that on air right but behind the scenes it’s like oh they’ll they’ll tell you what it’s really like and uh it was just eye-opening i guess that’s that’s as far as i can really go with saying it’s just eye-opening it and the suspicions there’s a reason we have the suspicions no certainly you know i it’s interesting because you were talking about being censored and this is sort of on topic but uh a little different anyways uh i find it fascinating that you aren’t able to get that that twitter verification badge and i want to tell you a story so my my stepdad passed away five years ago but my biological father’s still around he’s uh he’s actually running for uh a political seat in florida and what he is trying to do or tried to do for a very long time was get a check mark on twitter and i actually texted you about this with my own personal experience but he couldn’t do it and i finally got one on twitter uh after jack had resigned from twitter i i applied the next day i got it within five minutes he then applied a day after and he got approved within five minutes so i find it fascinating that you’re not able to because that’s a different level of censorship right it’s a different level of of uh sort of what you’re being spoon fed and told but i find them to be kind of connected because to be frank with you my my father’s uh a republican and uh it’s different sort of stuff happening you know i don’t know what’s your take on that that’s a really good point uh yeah i mean it’s it’s uh it’s mind-blowing i think uh look every republican that ran in this race against the governor in california got verified because it’s just the right it’s the right thing to do it’s like if you’ve got big political candidates running you verify them uh the the problem was uh the democratic party in california which i would just want to be very transparent i consider myself like extremely in the middle i did one of those political aptitude tests literally 51 uh left 49 right and like halfway down to the libertarian side so and i think that’s where a lot of us sit uh but but anyway so i’m running as a dem because i think that’s the only way to get things done in california because they got this massive supermajority but i’m running against the governor who said we want no other candidates so here they are trying to rig the system no other democrats are gonna run it’s just gonna be a republican recall it’s just gonna be dems versus republicans and i’m like f that dems deserve the californians deserve another option that’s somebody in the middle who cares about the damn label let’s talk policy but no instant censorship facebook deletes my posts twitter just rejects us every time we’ve got lawyers talking to twitter we’re getting nowhere it’s nuts so now let’s reconnect the dots huh so if you want to take together sort of your political campaign you tie together stocks uh you tie together sort of the current state of the economy now this is put on your put on your hat real tight right now okay i think there are certain parties out there oh there we go there it is there it is i think there are certain parties out there and individuals who will screen through uh retail investors and what they’re saying what they’re doing what they are interested in and i can actually say that with confidence because if you look from an institutional hedge fund sort of level a recent study came out saying that 85 percent of uh of hedge funds are paying attention to retail investors right wow so from that perspective i do think that there is a good likelihood that you’re being watched on a pretty regular basis by whoever does not want you verified and why i think this is all important is because there are people above us who at times dictate uncontrollable factors that we can do nothing about and that includes the market that includes twitter that includes uh the state of the economy whatever all we can do is be reactionary uh and you know preferably proactive to the reaction that you have to have uh in terms of how you can protect yourself and i think that’s kind of where we’re at with the market right now that might have been some jumbled thoughts but uh that’s that’s kind of where my mind was at i i mean i think you’re on point and you know i’ve tried putting myself and even the audience watching here earlier i was trying to put all of us in the shoes of a hedge fund like if we pictured that we had a hundred million dollars of aum assets under management right now would we be buying the dip now or would we wait until probably closer to like march 16th right what would we do knowing that whatever action we took would either get punished or rewarded by our clients and that could mean us going bankrupt right uh and and having to justify what action we make and if we’re not hedging in this market we’re going to lose customers we’re going to lose clients if if we’re buying the dip too early you’re going to lose customers and so we kind of went through that scenario i don’t know is is that is that fair to make that kind of analogy i think it is i really do you know and i if i was to run a hedge fund which i’d never do i don’t wanna i don’t wanna be in that sort of seat i don’t want that i don’t wanna be at that table you know uh what you’re doing is trying to play money in a different way than retail investors do now there are i think some good hedge funds out there and there’s probably more uh bad hedge funds out there the good ones what i think they’re trying to do is make investments without moving the market right that’s probably a really important piece of it and very conservatively make their investors money uh from just a basic level so how do you do that right you have to react to the day-to-day the day-to-day market in a legal way and i knock on the table real damn hard when i say legal because a lot of them don’t a lot of these guys i think have uh hands in the back pockets of some market makers in the back pockets of the sec at the very least some politicians i mean if you ever want to have your mind blown i’m sure you’ve done this look at uh look at what politicians have sent money to certain institutions i think it’s pretty sad uh but that’s my take yeah yeah it’s it’s it’s just disgraceful what do you think about uh nancy pelosi oh man there’s uh i was playing a video game last night it was phasma phasmaphobia it’s a ghost hunting game and one of my buddies is uh his name’s sas that’s what we call him on discord he was uh he played this sound bite from donald trump and it was it was something like nancy pelosi is a terrible person and that’s that’s how i die that’s how i’d sum up my my stance on nancy pelosi to say that you think insider trading should be fine congressional reps should be trading congressmen politicians while you are a congressman or a politician is is ridiculous i think if you want to make a comparison let’s say there’s two people that have an interview right uh the boss has some sort of relationship with one of them and the one who has a relationship gets the job it’s the same conflict of interest i mean it makes absolutely no sense how can you look the other way on that i don’t know it’s to me it’s silly if if somebody even defends uh nancy pelosi because that’s just garbage that’s actually i mean that’s honestly a really good point i mean she’s so deep in and the information and the regulation in these companies whether it’s google or the the chip suppliers it’s a good point man it’s a really good point oh man what a mess okay so uh how how diversified are you right now uh you know just to wrap it up like are are you are you cash heavy right now are you in like 10 different stocks are you in the etfs what are you what where are you what can you tell us so like i said before kevin i’m a traitor at heart right and uh the only position that i hold and have held for the last eight nine months is uh amc that’s it oh so you’re still like 100 trade yeah i trade i trade and i hold amc and that’s it and uh thankfully trading’s been going okay i i don’t have to worry too much about the downside while i wait because i do truly believe that there is more upside on this and i know that you’re you’re uh diamond ball in the pain uh with a lot of other retail investors and i appreciate you for that but uh i i just i sit cash heavy that’s it i uh i day trade i scalp options that’s uh that’s sort of my cup of tea i use very basic ta skills like uh like you have yourself and just take a couple good trades a day and i move on it’s amazing dude trey thank you so much for coming this has been so incredibly insightful really appreciate it hope to have you gone uh again sometime in the future oh shout yourself out though how can people follow you all right well i’ve got a youtube channel it’s uh trace trades and my twitter is at trades tray it’s backwards they wouldn’t let me have the the real handle someone else took it but that’s that’s those are spots and as always kevin i appreciate you uh having a chat with me man it’s always a blast deal thanks man we’ll see you take it easy all right folks well golly look at the drama that we’ve got uh i mean you’ve got here’s a btc just to sort of uh close out here look at this a btc popping off that 36 one line uh kind of playing a little bit in between here we did get a candle wake up to about that 37 6 line bobbing around in the middle here though if we take a peek in uh after hours let’s just for giggles see how after hours is moving after hours you’ve got sofi down about 166 after hours you know can we can fluctuate a lot matterport 1026 down about uh two-thirds of one percent uh peloton a firm down a little bit uh we do have some upside movers though in the after hours shift technology’s got two dollar two percent it’s back over two dollars but i mean like is that really any consolation at this point uh tesla what’s tesla doing here tesla’s down another half percent in the after hours it’s kind of just doing a little slow bleed here 938 dollars and uh boy oh boy we uh we’ve got one one heck of a a market ahead of us can’t can’t pull up futures here at 3 p.m because well futures are over and we’re not going to see futures until sunday at 3 p.m california time if uh you have not yet consider joining the metkevin.com chat discord met kevin.com chat and you could join the meet kevin group therapy chat i’ll be in there right after this live stream lot of drama obviously in the markets we will be watching crypto a lot over the weekend even though crypto seems to want to wait for technology stocks to do anything uh i i think watching crypto over the weekend is going to be critical uh so we’ll see we’ll see folks we will see uh anyway thank you so much for being here at this extended live stream or for this extended live stream prof kg i’ll post a video about exactly that later i appreciate y’all being here i will be in the uh chat the therapy chat in about uh two minutes i’m gonna get a little drink and i’ll be in the chat so again matt kevin.
com chat medcamp.com cashflow you want to sign up for the potential of future either real estate or stock funds and investing with me all right this was fun thank you so much we’ll see you goodbye everyone