XLM Price Forecast: Stellar anxiety dissipates before a 30% declineXLM price recovering from overnight lows, but the rebound is deceptive. Daily Relative Strength Index (RSI)is far from an oversold reading.21Shares has expanded its roster of crypto ETFs with the launch of Stellar XLM ETP.XLM price busted the neckline of a head-and-shoulders top pattern yesterday and quickly plunged below the 100-day simple moving average(SMA) before gaining price traction and propelling higher.
However, the rebound has not changed the bearish outlook first highlighted in an April 20 FXStreet article. XLM price trying to shake the grip of bearish historical precedent last three corrections have averaged around 50%, and two of the three were short, lasting four and nine days, respectively. As the stellar head-and-shoulders top is constructed, it forecasts a loss of just over 50% from the April 13 high.
A decline of the magnitude mentioned above would drive the daily RSI below 30, announcing a momentum low for the decline and the technical basis for a new, long-term rally. Without it, Stellar will be challenged to complete recovery to new highs. In the path of the head-and-shoulders measured move target of $0.304 is the 100-day SMA at$0.417, the overnight low at $0.390, and the rising trendline from the February 22 low at$0.372. The measured move target also includes an undercut of the February low at $0.314.
To reiterate, at the measured move target, Stellar will be down over 30% from the current price, 34%from the neckline break, and 55% from the April 13high. Moreover, if the February low is shattered, it will break the series of higher lows for corrections and thrust bullish Stellar speculators into a long waiting game. If the Stellar reboundfirms, the 100 12-hour simple moving average (SMA)at $0.455 will be the first line of resistance, closely followed by the neckline at $0.463.A daily close above the neckline would raise the odds of a test of the 50 12-hour SMA at $0.513, but the meeting of Fibonacci levels at $0.545will prove to be a significant challenge. Stellar price analysis.
XLM/USD bounces22% from the lows in volatile trading. The stellar price performance this month has been anything but. At one stage last week, the price of the digital currency had declined 45% from its 2021 highs. Investors in Stellar are no strangers to the altcoins volatility. After a 105% rally in the the3 weeks proceeding the 25th of March, bulls could be forgiven sadly, the euphoria was short-lived. The price has since crashed back to earth in a resounding fashion their excitement.
After topping out at a high of $0.68993on April 4th, the Stellar price is currently trading at $0.4365. In the midst of Thursday’s Cryptocurrency flash liquidation, the price traded as low as $0.3795 before recovering to finish the day at $0.4508. With traders still reeling from Thursdaysmarket action, it was no surprise to see a calmer trading environment on Friday.
The market traded in a much smaller range between $0.43305 $0.46071.With the Stellar price closing below the previous day’s closing level on nine of the last eleven sessions, there remains no doubt that the Stellar price may see further downside. A lot, of course, will depend on the performance of the broader market next week. Should we see a continuation of the recent selling in the bigger Cryptocurrencies, it’s likely that liquidation of altcoins will follow?
Stellar Price technical outlook Since the start of 2021, Stellar has witnessed drops of >45% on 4 separate occasions. Bulls may then be confident to go bargain-hunting after the recent steep discount. The picture in the longer term remains unclear. We can look to the short time frames to provide us with trading opportunities.
On the 4 hour chart, we see overhead resistance at $0.45113. The next level on the upside is the upper band of the descending trend channel at$0.4787. A break if this level on a closing basis could provide a long opportunity, closing the trade as the price approaches $0.5195.
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