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Friday, September 30, 2022

IA News Flash: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto Taxes

Welcome in everybody welcome to the first ever bunker episode here we are in the nuclear bunker, the newest studio, so welcome to friday. Here is today’s friday flash everything you need to know about crypto, bitcoin, ethereum stock market updates, tax updates and a whole lot more. So, let’s without further ado, let’s jump right in quick disclaimer. Of course everything included here is not financial advice and by the way i know some of you like my artwork and i’m going to showcase lots of new art. I just need to figure out how to attach a painting to solid concrete bunker, because nails don’t go into concrete anyway off to the races in math.

We trust, as always, let’s jump right in and talk about the 10-year treasury. The 10-year treasury has been wreaking a little bit of havoc with the markets. People are getting nervous, many people are saying it could be going to two percent and it’s causing a move out of highly volatile, highly overvalued technology into other names like large cap names. Big blue chips, so we’re not sure where this is gon na go. I think if the 10-year treasury does go to two percent, it will impact other foreign currencies.

It’Ll also make the debt toll for the united states extremely expensive. So i think there will be some manipulation as well to make sure that they keep that interest low, because otherwise it’d be very expensive for the us government to go forward. Just my take anyway, that’s causing some of the rattle after the rebound yesterday today now here we have some news out of europe. I will not mention her name, but obviously i’m not a big fan of people that say silly things or are corrupt. Anyhow, uh the european central bank will not be outdone or outspent.

They, coincidentally, came up with a budget of 1.85 trillion to basically buy treasuries. The european flavor of stimulus, which is about 2.2 trillion us dollars, which is bigger than the u.s 1.

trillion, and the other funny thing about this as well, is the ecb estimates of inflation. They already can nail inflation for this year and next year, and they say inflation will not be above one and a half percent in europe for the whole of 2021 and even lower in 2022, so somebody’s not calculating the right numbers, because how can you print so Much money and not have inflation, who knows? Maybe it is modern monetary policy, modern monetary theory we’ll see where this all goes, but i have a lot of friends in europe. I know things are getting very expensive over there very quickly, so happy anniversary, uh exactly one year good today, bitcoin fell down to 37 175 and ethereum fell down to 100 bucks. So if you had the courage to jump in and grab some, i’m smiling because it was a great time to buy and i like to buy the dips.

Uh bitcoin is up nearly 1400 and ethereum is up 1750. So again some people say you can’t buy bottoms by dips, but i’m always of the opinion. If, if you have the conviction and courage – and you can understand – charts, it’s not that hard to identify when things bottom out, but in today’s world as well, you’ve got a very small window of time to be able to do that. So again always have some powder dry in case, something that ever happens again again. I doubt it, but you know we’ll talk more about that later in this actual session today, in ethereum news, this is also kind of interesting.

A lot of people have been pinging me over options expiration on march 26th, around bitcoin. But more importantly, i want to talk about ethereum, because if you look at the amount of contracts that were purchased, i put this little graphic together to try to give you an insight into the head of how an options trader may operate and how maybe they use Technical analysis to estimate where they should place their bets. So if you look at this chart here, you can see the channel for ethereum where shot all the way up above two thousand dollars a coin. Maybe the traders were thinking at the time. Okay, i can very easily see ethereum as long as it continues this trajectory to go to 2600 plus and, as a result, a lot of options.

Traders made bets with strike prices between 22 40 and 3 and a half thousand dollars in ethereum 96 000 contracts worth, which is uh, 172 million dollars bet that they place down now either somebody is going to lose big or a whole. Bunch of people will lose big or ethereum needs to gain 25 to the next couple of weeks. So the question is: what’s going to happen either way, i think either ethereum makes a big move. I don’t think you can make that type of move in two weeks or, and also these strikes are so far out of the money. I don’t think they’ll bring about much volatility, so not too concerned there.

I will analyze the bitcoin options in a further video, but again just looking back at this chart, you can see kind of what they were thinking uh in terms of how much and how strong ethereum was up until around the 20th 21st of feb. I think it was and then it started to dive, there’s a great buying opportunity down here when it went all the way down to 1200. So that’s a little bit of ethereum, but in other news goldman sachs executive says the use of crypt assets is set to explode and their reasons are the world is becoming more digital. They are seeing absolutely crazy demand for bitcoin and crypto, and they want in they just restarted their crypto trading desk after shutting it down one or two years ago. They just opened it up again, so interesting things happening there with goldman and again, a lot of the big wall of money continues to come in not only from the treasury side, but now from the institutional side as well.

In other news, minor selling pressure is apparently declining according to crypto quant, and this could fuel bitcoin rally. Basically, what the miners are doing is they are huddling, they are holding. Some miners are actually borrowing money to pay their expenses and they’re, keeping their bitcoin as a kind of a quasi-treasury asset, and even using that treasury asset to borrow money against it, which is brilliant, f2 pool, seems to have stopped selling, and it was apparent that they Were selling for reasons which were not that bad as we originally thought, but more about relocation and miners are waiting for higher prices, probably before they sell so either way you can see from this fifty thousand dollars according to these guys, is looking like pretty good support, But again we’ll talk more about the opposite arguments as well, so spring and bitcoin. What’S going to happen, where is it going to go? I get this question all the time.

Should we sell now, should we take our profits and i’m going to talk a little bit about taxes at the end, so please hold on for that, but obviously we’re seeing crazy demand rising. This is just a channel that i had in a chart, and i know that my opinion is: you can’t really use technical analysis for bitcoin, because it’s all about the actual money flowing into the asset class. But there are some things you can see from this chart and the big moves it’s made since late last year. Basically, it’s moving beautifully up this range. You saw two big dips at the bottom of the range thirty thousand to forty three thousand, and you saw two big peaks, forty two thousand and fifty eight thousand.

Now some people are calling the fifty eight thousand level to be a double top. Other people call it a teacup, i think, according to me and i tend to deviate from the typical pack out there. I see 54 000 as a solid support level right now, based on you know, the type of action we’ve seen lately and i see things continuing upwards from here. A lot of people are talking about 60k, 66k, 72k, 77k. Somewhere in that range we could go to in spring and another quick look at the chart.

I put a little spaceship there just to signify where the overall trajectory is, and it would not surprise me if we just continue along this path again. Nothing is certain in this life, but this seems like a pretty solid trend and it’s all driven by buying power and the supply is dwindling and the demand is increasing. So to me, the only way is up in other, more bad omen type news, the pure multiple, which many of you are familiar with. If you’ve looked at bitcoin charts, this historically tells miners when they need to sell. Now, if you look at the red line in this chart when it approaches the red box, the red bar that’s an indication that the market is at a top and everybody dumps their bitcoin.

And now i think because of where we are because again the demand. That’S there and the scan supply and the fact that the miner is now huddling more than ever before. I don’t know if this is still as valid as it used to be in the past. In addition, the impact of the miners being able to influence markets is less because of the institutions that are in there and the having effect and a whole host of other reasons. So we’ll see if this pure multiple is still valid three to four years from now.

My money would be it’ll become less valid. Of course we might get tops if we go back to the chart here. A second. You will see that in some cases it went above 10 and maybe if it goes that high that could be a cause for concern. But in the meantime i don’t think i’m that bothered about it at all microstrategy.

Oh my god. These guys are out again and made a post on patreon this morning that he is absolutely savage, so forget, buying the dip micro strategy just every time they have 10 or 15 million dollars in their kitty on their balance sheet. They just spend it immediately and they don’t care what price they spend at. He does not stop. Now by my recent calculation.

Microstrategy have 0 6 percent of all bitcoin on the market. I estimate there are only 14 and will only ever be 14 million or less bitcoins and because they have over 91 000 today, i think he’s going to own one percent of all bitcoin as quickly as he can. He would need to have a hundred and forty thousand coins for that to happen, and i think that’s his goal, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he gets there in the next one or two years, provided he can still afford them. They can still borrow money. So this micro strategy play is genius and some people say it’s crazy.

Some people hate micro strategy because of what they’re doing you know it’s getting away from their core business. But it’s really turning heads and i like it so women in crypto. In other great news, investment apps typically are made up of 76 males and, sadly, three-fifths of all women have never invested in stocks, options, bonds or crypto. However, according to robin hood, the number of female crypto traders has gone up seven fold in the last year. That is incredible now, when i started my little channel back in december, i was i started about 98 male, then i hit 96 male 94 male and today, if you look at these numbers very carefully right now, today the fresh numbers – we are 9.

female and i Hope they’ll come a day where we can be 50 50 because we need more women in the space and the women are very smart in calculating as well so congrats to all the women out there and help me change these ratios here. Let’S make it more equal as we go forward now and more number stuff. According to the law of not large numbers as bitcoin market cap increases, the law of large numbers will dictate that’ll be more difficult to move. The price and it’ll also be more difficult for manipulators to manipulate the price of bitcoin, which is good news, because the question i get over and over and over again is – is bitcoin going to go back to 20, 000 or 10 000 or 15 000 when’s. It going to crash, is it going to take an 85 dip like it did in the past and again per the law of large numbers, and this publication that just came out two hours ago?

I don’t think that’s going to happen as easily. The dips will not be as aggressive because, again, first of all, the number of huddlers that are holding coins in more than three years is at an all-time high. The number of institutional buyers that are coming in are huge and they aren’t trading they’re, not buying bitcoin. To speculate they’re buying it to hold it and keep it, and if you’ve ever heard anything that michael saylor said again from microstrategy, is he never intends to ever sell? So i think this is very true and i like it and i believe it and it’s interesting if you guys are interested check out this article again from nasim talib in other news, just more of a safety measure for you all.

There are, sadly, some crypto jacking going on. This is basically when hackers hack into your computer and use it to mine bitcoin. Now, if you had spare computer processing power, there’s no harm in that. If they give the bitcoin to you that you mine but they’re not so what’s happening, is uh these crypto jackers, you can buy a kit on the dark web for as little as 30 bucks and they’re using people’s computers, they’re hacking to universities using university computers, etc. But this team of engineers, panther engineers, has found a way to detect crypto jackers with 99 accuracy, but i just encourage you all as well use a very safe browser use, something like chrome, don’t use brave has its own issues, please don’t use safari or internet explorer.

Be very careful out there or even firefox, just go with chrome, it’s supposed to be the safest and install an ad blocking or anti-cryptomining extension on your web browser, and that will protect you. Okay, so just be very careful out there, especially also if you have crypto and you’re storing keys on your computer. You don’t know who’s getting in there. So if that is the case, you need to have your computer locked down solid, so be careful everybody out there and in tax season news again getting a lot of questions regarding taxes. I just want people to think because again people are looking at people that bought, for example, bitcoin at nine thousand dollars in september, they’re licking their lips, saying: oh, it’s fifty nine thousand.

Now i can make a quick, fifty thousand dollar game, but be careful depending on your jurisdiction. You could be paying up to fifty percent in taxes now, if you can wait to make you sure you’re holding you have it at least twelve months. Your long-term capital gain rates are a lot lower, for example, in the us, depending on your income level, they can be between 0 50 and 20 percent and 20 taxes versus 50 taxes is substantial. So please everybody, if you are thinking about selling, think about the tax ramifications before you hit the sale trigger, or else you could have a huge tax bill so and also think imagine you have to pay 50 taxes and you have a nine thousand dollar bitcoin. You sell for fifty nine thousand.

You got 50 grand. You got to give 25 000 to the tax man. Will you be able to buy back into crypto with the balance you have left, maybe not so you’re betting on a very huge dip and because of what i said in the previous slides that may not happen. We may not have those huge dips like before, and i know you were many of you have been around you know three years ago and saw some severe gyrations, but don’t expect them to happen again. Okay, quick conclusion, as always, first of all spring will be interesting.

I don’t know where it’s going to go, but my money is on things continuing upwards with the trajectory that are in play. The treasuries are still hell bent on buying bitcoin and doing it like there’s no tomorrow, money printing is global between the us and europe. Right now, that’s over 4.1 trillion in new money. That’S been printed in a week.

That is huge, don’t trust the cpi numbers not from europe, not from the us. They are not true um march options. Expiration will be interesting, keep an eye on that plan for taxes. If you’re thinking about selling be careful make sure you do your tax calculations first, and this is not tax advice, i’m not a tax, accountant and um. The ladies are coming, which is great news.

Welcome aboard ladies, come on in uh, for anybody who wants to learn more, please join the invest, dancers, patreon community. We have a blast in there every day, sharing lots of great ideas and the people that are there are fantastic. So big, thank you to everybody. Who’S part of it, and if you like, this type of content, hit the like subscribe. If you haven’t already, thank you all happy friday be safe.

Read More: Buying A house with crypto | Crypto News Today

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