As 2021 comes to an end, everyone is wondering what will happen to the crypto market in the coming year. This is the focus of a recent report by masari and it contains some pretty powerful predictions for cryptocurrency in 2022.
Today, i’m going to give you a bit of background about mrsari break down what the report says and whether its crypto predictions will come true, before we can advance there is a disclaimer. I must implant. If you came here looking for financial advice, i must give you a hard pass.
This video is just an entertaining and educational rant contact a financial advisor if you need help with finance. If you came here by chance, my name is guy and crypto is my romance. The coin bureau is where you can find quality crypto content that makes an impact coins, tokens news and reviews filled with fascinating facts.
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Now that you know my stance, let’s take a look at masari’s crypto forecast if you’ve never heard of massari before here’s. What you need to know masari is a cryptocurrency analytics company founded by dan mcardle and ryan selkiss in 2018.
Dan holds a bachelor’s degree in computer science and economics. He’S founded multiple companies and currently serves as the cto of two of them. Dan is also the director of curriculum and content at the digital currency.
Council ryan holds a bachelor’s degree in finance and dropped out of a master’s program at mit quote, because bitcoin ryan has founded a few companies of his own. After briefly working at jpmorgan and summit partners.
Ryan is also the former director of growth at digital currency group. One of the largest companies in cryptocurrency he even worked as managing director of coindesk, which is owned by dcg, in contrast with other crypto analytics companies. Massari typically takes a more informal approach when it comes to its cryptocurrency reports, and this report is no exception and that’s because it was written by ryan himself.
The title says it all quote: crypto theses, 2022 key trends, people companies and projects to watch across the crypto landscape with predictions for 2022. Now the report is over 160 pages long and i’ll. Give you my thoughts as we go along.
You can find the full report in the description if you want to read it yourself note that it’s free to download messages, crypto report begins with a short introduction by ryan selkiss, and the only sentence worth pointing out here is quote. I own assets discussed in this report.
My core holdings are disclosed at the end of chapter one, along with those of the rest of the masari team, so scrolling down to the end of chapter one.
We can see that ryan, who also goes by the student in two bit idiot or tbi, holds bitcoin ethereum terror, perpetual protocol, thor chain, zcash, the fei, stable coin and its governance, token, tribe and presumably shares of open c, since it doesn’t have a token most of Masari’S other employees hold more or less the same cryptocurrencies, along with a few others like solana, ave helium, our weave cosmos and polkadot i’ll leave a link to all the cryptocurrencies masari’s employees hold in the description.
If you’re interested note that you can also find my personal cryptocurrency portfolio by subscribing to my weekly newsletter, that’s in the description too anyways on the page after the introduction ryan presents a screenshot of a tweet thread with the title quote. Why we’re here now i’ll read the whole tweet thread, because it’s fairly short and very epic quote i’m sick of feeling like we have to apologize for our early stage and walk-on eggshells around politicians and regulators. We built a two trillion dollar financial market from scratch.
In less than a decade, with absolutely no institutional help and active encumbrances from government, meanwhile, banks give you 0.025 percent interest on your deposits and front run your trades legally and dc grifters overspend and debase your tax dollars, while the insider trade stocks with impunity.
Like other early stage, transformational tech markets, there are some characters, some bad actors, but mostly it’s just brave entrepreneurs and innovators – don’t spit in our face and pretend you’re here to save people from us. We started this movement to save people from you amen to that. The first part of masari’s crypto report concerns the top 10 narratives and investment themes for 2022.
These are the collapse of institutional trust, the inevitability of web 3, bridges, nfts and dows. The decoupling of cryptocurrencies, the perpetual presence of vc investors, the top of the current bull market, surviving the bear market.
Crypto currencies outperforming the companies that support them copy trading and the cryptocurrencies masari’s employees hold, which i’ve already covered so starting with the collapse of institutional trust, ryan, highlights that almost nobody trusts legacy institutions anymore and especially not the government.
He then presents this infographic created by andreas and horowitz, which says it all no institution is seen as both competent and ethical ryan concludes the section by saying that things will get worse before they get better and the censorship of crypto companies and users will become common.
As people look to cryptocurrency as an alternative to the status quo, as for the inevitability of web 3 ryan explains that cryptocurrency has everything it needs to reach: mainstream adoption, talented people working on crypto projects, lots of money flowing into the industry and the timing of crypto Development, the technology is here when we need it most because of the beautiful convergence of these factors.
Ryan believes that there are three scenarios for cryptocurrency a bull market top in early 2022, followed by a bear market. A massive 10x move across the board which lasts for a year or more or a steady climb to successive all-time highs.
The super cycle now ryan reckons that the first scenario is the most likely and also the most favorable, because quote hyper bitcoinization and crypto’s permanent ascendance at this stage of our development would only happen against a very dystopian backdrop.
Indeed, when it comes to bridges, nfts and dows ryan points out that, while certain nft collections may be in a bubble, the nft industry itself is about to explode. The only problem is that robust nft related tools, such as bridges and decentralized governance structures based on decentralized digital identity, have yet to be developed.
There’S also an absence of scaling solutions which can make nft technology available to the average person ryan hopes that all these things will be addressed in 2022, which will be quote year of the dao. Concerning the decoupling of cryptocurrencies ryan, correctly points out that the term cryptocurrency is no longer sufficient to describe the crypto market.
That’S because the crypto market now consists of multiple categories with their own distinct features and fundamentals. These niches could start to decouple in 2022, meaning the coins and tokens within them will be less dependent on the price action of btc. I actually covered a few crypto categories in a video you can find in the description now regarding the presence of venture capital.
Ryan begins by breaking out a chart that shows the billions of dollars being invested into cryptocurrency by vc. Ryan takes this as evidence that the institutions are finally here and the fact that the money they invest tends to stay within the crypto industry suggests their record investments. Will continue into 2022
In terms of the crypto market, top the market value to realize value metric from coinmetrics suggests to ryan that bitcoin will hit 100 to 125k in early 2022. for ethereum ryan expects at least a three to five x for eth’s current price of around 4k, but doesn’t Think that ethereum will flip bitcoin by market cap simply because ethereum’s money is essentially split between other smart contract.
Cryptocurrencies ryan doesn’t provide a price prediction for these ethereum competitors. But notes that they are likely to move in tandem as we approach the top ryan touches on defy and nfts2 and says that the former could offer high returns, whereas most of the nft gains are likely.
To come from the crypto infrastructure that supports them, such as nft, specific blockchains and layer, twos ryan, then talks about how we can prepare for the upcoming crypto winter aka bear market which will happen because of regulation and other factors such as esg, investing, which i covered In another video you can find in the description.
In short, the next bear market will be brutal and ryan recommends. The following quote: unwind leverage early cash out tax obligations when incurred and for the love of god do not try to time the top.
Now the last two sections are again pretty self-explanatory: cryptocurrencies are raising more money than crypto companies and ryan gives the example of coinbase stock versus binance’s bnb, among others, for copy trading ryan reveals the most commonly held cryptocurrencies by crypto funds, which can be seen here if you’re Having trouble seeing or you’re just listening, polka dot near protocol oasis network terror and are weave are the five most commonly held cryptocurrencies by crypto funds.
This is quite interesting, as my recent video on near protocol didn’t get nearly as much attention as i expected, but it’s not too late to check it out folks and you can do so using the link in the top right.
The second part of masari’s crypto report talks about the 10 crypto people to pay attention to in 2022.
The first person is wagmi, which is an acronym for we’re all going to make it and ryan uses wagmi in the context to signify everyone who’s invested in cryptocurrency.
How kind the second person is actually three people and that’s kyle samani from multicoin capital, shu zhu from three arrows capital and cms holdings, who is apparently a popular personality on crypto twitter? The third person is emily choi from coinbase who’s behind the idea for coinbase ventures. The fourth person is devin finza, the co-founder of the openc nft marketplace.
The fifth person is actually two people and that’s dan robinson and dave white of paradigm. Another crypto vc, the sixth person, is jeffrey zerlin, the co-founder of axi infinity. The seventh person is again two people and that’s tess, rineason from twitter and jay graber from bluesky twitter’s, decentralized, social media platform.
Now, if you’ve been keeping up with my weekly crypto reviews, you’ll know that jack dorsey recently stepped down as the ceo of twitter, and this could have some serious implications for twitter’s pending crypto plans, even so ryan says to watch these women closely. The eighth person is yet again two people and that’s christian smith, from the blockchain association and katie hound from andreas and horowitz.
The ninth person is sec, commissioner hester pierce, which is certainly a good pick. She’S been fighting hard for the crypto industry at the sec and hopefully will succeed in helping to create regulation that clarifies which cryptocurrencies are securities and last but not least, we have dokuan the founder of terra, who, i am also a huge fan of.
You can find out why, by watching my latest video about terra in the description ryan finished off with a few honorable mentions, including ftx ceo sam bankman freed microstrategy, ceo michael saylor and bankless podcast’s host ryan adams and david hoffman. The third part of masari’s crypto report consists of ryan’s 10 thoughts and predictions about bitcoin for 2022
To paraphrase peter schiff will continue to be wrong about bitcoin bitcoin will continue to be the largest cryptocurrency. Three percent of all btc will exist on multiple blockchains, 10 of all btc will be locked in a spot.
Bitcoin etf. China will allow bitcoin mining again. Bitcoin mining will be used to bootstrap, green energy, proof of work and proof of stake will co-exist. Proof of work will remain the most fair and secure of the two bitcoin development will continue to accelerate, especially on the lightning network, and the lightning network will consequently continue to grow, and we could see other countries follow. El salvador’s lead in adopting btc as legal tender.
Now you can learn more about what happened with el salvador, using the link up there in the top right. The fourth part of massari’s crypto report pertains to crypto policy in the united states.
Ryan sets the stage by touching on the stablecoin report from the president’s working group for financial markets, the infamous infrastructure bill which recently passed and a few other crazy crypto regulations from the united states and elsewhere.
Ryan then lists the crypto risks that should be addressed with reasonable regulation. These are exchange risks, stablecoin risks, banking integration risks, anti-money laundering, surveillance risks, tax evasion, risk and securities fraud risk.
Ryan’S final bullet point about privacy is more of a point than a risk and it reads as follows: quote we might have to agree to disagree here and fight them on the beaches when it comes to transaction privacy, peer-to-peer transaction reporting and disclosure requirements on self-cut assets Are unconstitutional, overreaches get a warrant or we’ll see you in court now ryan, then talks all about the different regulatory bodies in the united states and their negative attitudes towards cryptocurrency.
He calls sec chairman gary gensler, a quote: ambitious and highly competent political operative, though i would argue that gary’s allegiances are more closely aligned with his previous employer more about that in the description, and if you prefer the cliff notes version over a video, you can refer To ryan’s thread about gary gensler and how he almost became sec chair four years ago, which would have been the end of ethereum.
That’S also in the description next ryan details, the different groups that are advocating for crypto on capitol hill and how massari is helping the war effort on that front ryan continues with a wish list of the seven areas where he wants to see reasonable crypto regulation, and These are stable coins kyc, while preserving privacy, taxation, community governance, specifically governance tokens, the legal recognition of decentralized autonomous organizations, the creation of a dedicated crypto commission and the experimentation of crypto regulation at the city level.
After briefly discussing stable coins and the integration of crypto banks into the current financial system, ryan turns to the traceability of cryptocurrency transactions and why this makes crypto an unattractive financial vehicle for bad people. He also drops the dank fact that only 0.
4 of all crypto transactions are associated with illicit activity, which is far less than the percentage for fiat. Currencies ryan then rails against the u.s tax system and then gives sec chairman gary gensler a run for his money.
With a five-page tirade, which ends with quote to hell, with the sec’s mission, he’s holding an entire emerging industry hostage partially at the behest of senator warren, as he carries favor in his ascent towards treasury secretary ryan also takes some time to talk about the sec’s case. Against a ripple which i won’t even start getting into here, you can refer to my video about it in the description for more details.
Ryan returns to the topic of privacy and the legal status of dowse before providing a few pointers for a potential american web 3 council which could be tasked with overseeing the cryptocurrency industry. Four of these pointers come from coinbase’s recent policy proposals and these are create a reasonable regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies.
Have one regulator, concern itself with digital asset marketplaces, protect against manipulation and fraud in the crypto market and promote competition and interoperability.
Now, in the last two sections ryan underscores the importance of winning dc in the fight for cryptocurrency and closes with a twitter thread by punk 6529, which talks about how the united states is the true home of cryptocurrency. I can almost hear the star-spangled banner starting up.
The fifth part of masari’s crypto report is about market infrastructure and it consists of 15 fairly self-explanatory sections. These are basically bitcoin futures etfs are, and they will continue to be more costly than profitable for investors.
Grayscale’s bitcoin trust isn’t all that great and the sec won’t. Let it turn to a spot, bitcoin etf, the reserves held by centralized crypto lending platforms are a bit sketchy and regulators will crack down because of them. Cryptocurrency’S centralized finance sector will continue replacing the traditional finance sector.
Cryptocurrency exchanges will continue to grow initial litigation. Offerings on avalanche will offer a way for the regular crypto holders to fight unreasonable crypto regulations.
Crypto custodians could eventually hold 50 percent of all the cryptocurrency in circulation. The sec will continue preventing regular u.s investors from participating in icos for ridiculous reasons.
Crypto compliance companies like chainalysis and elliptic will provide a line of defense against regulators. There will be multiple payment innovations in the crypto space, such as quadratic funding for public goods.
More about that, in the description: US regulators will realize the importance of stable coins in maintaining the dollar status as the world’s reserve currency. China’S central bank digital currency could become a threat to the u.s dollar if it offers privacy to transactions being made overseas, which is a crazy thought.
The federal reserve will continue to work on its own cbdc, though it won’t be rushing as per jerome powell’s comments. Circle, ceo jeremy, alaire, who ryan refers to, as quote crypto dollar jesus, will take center stage when usdc becomes the biggest stablecoin in cryptocurrency and finally, usdp and busd issuer paxos will likewise play an important role through its prolific partnerships with facebook.
I mean metas novi crypto, wallet and mastercard. On that note, if you’re interested in learning about meta’s libra aka dm cryptocurrency, you can check out my video about it using the link in the top right. The sixth part of masari’s crypto report is about nfts and web3, and it also contains 15 predictions which i will once again paraphrase for your pleasure.
Most nfts will go to zero, but nft technology will quote impact every sector of the economy. Nft infrastructure such as blockchains and marketplaces will quote outperform by a wide margin.
The expected value of even the bluest chip nft projects, nfts that make you an exclusive member of a club, will not survive in their current form and that’s putting it lightly fan tokens will become more popular. The top gaming studios will release their own play to earn crypto games. Composable nfts, like loot, will become more common.
The use of nfts in d5 will increase, as will nft fractionalization open c will beat centralized nft marketplaces because it’s safe from regulation, at least for the time being. Cryptocurrency metaverses will beat big tech metaverses in the short term and lose in the medium term.
If big tech metaverses become open, they will win in the long term because of the insane amount of money behind them. Meta is investing 10 billion per year, for example, decentralized identity using nfts will become a thing, and this will open the door to new kinds of nfts cryptocurrency domains and data monetization will see significant development, decentralized social media might see its quote satoshi moment. The internet will continue to decentralize with the help of decentralized storage protocols such as ipfs and rweav.
The physical networks, which power the internet will also continue to decentralize with the help of crypto projects such as helium, which you can learn about using the link in the top right. The seventh part of masari’s crypto report is all about defy and here’s the abridged version of the 15 sections tether won’t get tackled by regulators and usdt will continue to be one of the primary bridges to crypto, which is a pretty bold prediction.
If you ask me, terra’s ust stablecoin will become the most popular decentralized stablecoin note that ust is currently only about a billion dollars behind make a dao’s die by market cap. Algorithmic, stable coins will become more than a meme. Stable coins that aren’t pegged to the us dollar will become more popular.
Worldcoin will onboard over 300 million people by scanning their eyeballs more about that in the description, uniswap v3 will continue to dominate the decentralized exchange, niche decentralized derivatives.
Exchanges like perpetual protocol and dydx will challenge centralized derivatives. Exchanges. New kinds of d5 protocols will emerge as part of what ryan calls d5 2.0.
The most successful d5 protocols will be those that deploy on multiple blockchains synthetic stock trading will become more popular despite being illegal in the united states. Decentralized front ends for dapps will become more common. As regulators crack down on crypto developers running centralized front ends like they did with uniswap.
Earlier this year, centralized decentralized finance will become popular, possibly to the point that token holders of d5 protocols, like arve, will push them to pass proposals which make them more regulated a risk which ryan notes is present for proof-of-stake cryptocurrencies as well. Decentralized governance will continue to develop, especially when it comes to how treasury funds are allocated.
Decentralized insurance for d5 protocols will be more accessible now. The final prediction is pretty funny because ryan talks about the impact of vesting schedules on the prices of cryptocurrencies in 2022 and uses solana’s vesting schedule as an example of a project that has presumably had quote big long-term oriented backers.
Solana’S vesting schedule has long been a mystery to me and ryan linked to a twitter thread, which adds evidence to my suspicion that soul didn’t crash because of some coordination in the background by big investors in the project such as sam bankman freed.
Now i happen to hold seoul as part of my personal portfolio too, and you can learn more about solana using the link in the description. The eighth part of masari’s crypto report explores ethereum ethereum’s layer, 2 scaling solutions and cross chain bridges.
It comes packed with 15. More predictions, which i will again summarize for your viewing pleasure for starters, ethereum 2.0 will supercharge institutional investment into eth partially because of proof of stakes.
Compliance with esg ethereum miners will not rebel against the transition, because the two mining pools that did were apparently based in china, and we all know what happened there once the merge is complete liquid staking will allow people staking eth to use it in d5 protocols. Ethereum’S virtual machine will continue to be the most popular smart contract engine, as such ethereum will likely lose its dominance to evm smart contract, cryptocurrencies and layer 2 scaling solutions.
At the same time, solana will cement its place as a top competitor to ethereum, primarily because of its speed, but partially because it’s not trying to copy ethereum like other smart contract. Cryptocurrencies polkadot will continue its parachain slot auctions as part of its slow and steady growth. Cosmos will become extremely important as it becomes clear that interoperability is the future of cryptocurrency. Terror will face some trials and tribulations during the next bear market due to its ust dynamics, but ryan believes the project will prevail in the long term. Ryan also believes that polygon will eventually flip eth, because quote on a long enough timeline, all crypto will converge to zero knowledge crypto.
I will point out that he was probably referring to a flipping of daily active users, not of market cap. Also, in 2022, optimistic roll ups will become the preferred layer twos in a few years time. However, zero knowledge roll-ups will take the top spots by that point.
The most popular bridge protocols between layer, ones, between layer ones and layer, twos and layer, twos and other layer, twos, will quote, have higher daily volumes than the most popular centralized exchange and, last but not least, ryan notes. That quote: we’re just getting started in the crypto super cycle.
There will be some bear markets, though, which is why you should watch my video about the different bear market scenarios using the link down below the ninth part of massari’s crypto report digs into decentralized autonomous organizations or dows.
It comes packed with 10 predictions first cryptocurrency wallets. Will double as our decentralized digital identities? Second learn to earn will become a thing. Third dows will begin to emerge as future companies and quote you’ll work for a dow someday.
Fourth, there will be lots of experimentation in dow governance and quote this is where masari will be spending most of its resources going forward. Fifth, the composition of dow treasuries will change to consist of more stable assets that don’t pump and dump like the tokens that currently make them up.
Sixth tools will be developed to track how these treasury funds are being spent in real time. The seventh prediction looks like a bit of marketing by masari, as it notes it’s building something related to daos. Eighth, a legal framework will be created for daos and given everything we’ve heard so far, it wouldn’t surprise me if that’s probably what massari is working on.
Ninth venture capital, focused dows, will become more popular and finally, data focused dows will be in high demand. The tenth part of masari’s crypto report is titled quote whatever i want, and it consists of a collection of ryan’s thoughts about five things.
First ryan insists that you must get better at writing, regardless of who you are and what you do, because engaging communication is the only way you will thrive in this coming age of hyper growth. Second, you should not have any religious views about any topic and especially not about any cryptocurrencies, because acting on anything besides raw information will lead to failure. This ties into ryan’s third thought and that’s to get your information from the highest quality sources that you can.
He lists the few folks he follows closely and i’ll leave links to their socials in the description for your convenience. Ryan’S fourth thought consists of four productivity tips, which can be summed up as minimize your time on social media minimize.
The time you spend in meetings make your schedule known to the relevant people and stick to it and make sure you get enough sleep and exercise, and finally, ryan recommends getting married having kids and moving to the suburbs, because it will keep your mind off the crypto Market he also explains that time is the most valuable thing and that every day is day one everything is in your control, a great way to end a 165 page report, and that’s it for my video about masari’s crypto report.
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