Hi, I’m Molly Jane, you may know me from the Hodler’s Digest, but today I’m here talking with Mati Greenspan from eToro about the markets. It’s a basic question, but it’s hard to answer. Do you think the crypto winter is over, truly over? Yes, definitively. The crypto winter as we know has been the period that they call from the beginning of 2018. And people have just kind of been in question of when is it over. Last time we did an article together we spoke about a long-term trend line, it was a bear trend line that had been broken.
So I believe that the bear market is over completely. The question now about crypto winter is more of a question about seasons. People keep asking has the bull market started yet, and we’ve seen a lot of upward pressure on prices, but you can’t really point to the chart and say: “Okay, this is a number where the bull market will have begun.”
And the reason for that is because the way that we define a bull market is that it’s an environment where prices are going up consistently, over time, and are expected to continue growing in the future. So, let’s say, the market seems to think that that will happen once Bitcoin passes $6,500, some people saying $6,200, $7,000, all these numbers, but we really won’t know what it looks like until we get there.
So do you think that there are any bearish signals right now that would indicate a really big dip coming? Yeah, so just looking at the short term price action, we can see that there was that massive surge up on April the 2nd. And a lot of the time what we see in these, in the crypto markets is this Bart Simpson pattern where we see a surge up and then some sort of consolidation and then a surge down.
So if we see that pattern again that certainly could be a bearish signal or at least some way of saying that the market is not necessarily in this impending bull run as people are thinking, but the jury’s still out on that. At the moment we’re holding above $5,000, which is a good sign. So do you think that Bitcoin could settle above the $5,250 resistance? At the moment we’re slightly below that, depends on which platform you’re looking at, I mean we will speak about the Bitfinex premium in just a bit.
I don’t see any specific significance of $5,200. What I’m looking at is that $5,000 level and then the 200-day moving average. So the 200-day moving average at the moment is around $4,400, well below what we’re at now. So this is kind of been a benchmark, the 200-day moving average has been acting as a support and resistance line over the last two years. So, quite significant.
So do you see any bullish signals, I already asked about the bearish ones but what about any bullish signals in the markets right now? So actually if you want to look for bullish signals, number one you can say that the markets have been rising pretty consistently since the lows in mid-December. But what I’m looking at is more of market indicators, so not just the technical analysis.
Just recently we saw a huge headline that Andreessen Horowitz, which is one of the most well-known venture capital firms, is getting ready to make a billion-dollar investment into crypto. This to me is a clear signal that crypto winter is over. That we’re seeing people excited about investing in blockchain again, these are things that go on behind the scenes and they sometimes take a while to translate into price movement.
So, for example, I saw a recent interview with Jeff Bezos and he basically was commenting on, you probably remember, Amazon crashed from more than $100 to less than $10 in the dot-com bubble. He was saying is that you know, that didn’t really make much difference for him and for Amazon at the time, because the crash is only an indication of raising capital.
But if you look at behind the scenes, and what he was looking at, was consistent growth in metrics and users and consistent growth in sales. So that’s what I’m looking at in the crypto market at the moment. So even though the price may be giving a false indicator we’re seeing an industry that’s growing very rapidly.
Got it. The next question, which I’m sure you would expect, is what do you think about the allegations against Bitfinex and Tether having on the markets right now? So, that is a bit of a sticky situation at the moment, and I think it’s actually one of it’s been the crypto market’s worst fear and now it’s being realized, and I think that actually now that it’s kind of out of the way and out in the open, it’s actually better for the market because we don’t have it hanging over our heads anymore.
That’s going to play out between Bitfinex and the U.S. government, is going to play out and we’re all going to watch that. But the question is how does that impact the markets? And we did see when that announcement came out there was a bit of a dip in the price over here, but it’s still holding within the current consolidation range.
And if you look at it, you know, long term that isn’t much of a difference. What people are looking at right now is something called the Bitfinex Premium, where exchanges that are trading based on USDT, the price of Bitcoin is actually about $200 to $350 higher than it is in the rest of the market.
There are several reasons for that, but it’s one thing that we’ll want to keep a close eye on hopes that it will even itself out. But if it doesn’t the important thing to remember is that even if Tether goes completely bust, that has no reflection on Bitcoin but rather people moving their money out of Tether is more likely to go into Bitcoin and cause upward pressure on the prices.
So again, I’m Molly Jane and I was just talking to Mati Greenspan from eToro about the markets. Remember to like, subscribe and hold, and tune back in this Sunday to see me and our weekly Hodler’s Digest. This episode is sponsored by Trade Santa. Trade Santa is a cloud-based trading bot. Set it up in less than 2 minutes, trade multiple pairs, choose between long and short strategies, use tech analysis indicators and see your results in real-time.
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