It’s been a crazy year in the crypto market and many are wondering whether this craziness will continue in 2022. There’s been no shortage of predictions in this regard with some saying we’ll enter a super cycle of successive all-time highs and others saying that the end of cryptocurrency is nigh. Well, today, I’m going to give you my personal crypto predictions for the coming year and why? Some of them have me feeling greed and others have me feeling fear, make sure you don’t miss the bonus prediction at the end,. Now i know you can’t wait to hear what i have to say, but continuing without a disclaimer would not be okay.
Nothing in this video is financial or investment advice. It’s just entertaining educational content. Don’t make me say it twice. Please contact a financial advisor if you want to get your investments right. If this is the first time, I’m in your site, my name is guy and crypto is what i like.
The coin bureau is home to some of the highest quality, crypto content online coins, tokens news reviews and other crypto related topics. That cross my mind. If this is what you’re here for subscribe to the channel and ping that notification bell to make sure you get more, if time is not on your side, you can use the timestamps below to skip ahead to any interesting topics. You find just remember that the longer you stick around the more this video will get found. So now that you understand my position, let’s unpack my crypto predictions, my first crypto prediction for 2022 is that usdc will flip usdt to become the largest stablecoin by market cap.
Now, even though usdc’s market cap is currently around half that of usdt’s usdc has been growing at a faster rate than usdt since the end of 2020.
To put things into perspective, usdc’s market cap grew by more than 10x in 2021, whereas usdt’s market cap grew by just forex during the same period. Now this is for a few reasons. For starters, much of the demand for usdt was coming from chinese investors, who are using tether as an on and off ramp for cryptocurrency, as well as a means of moving money out of the country. Chinese demand for usdt has fallen substantially since china’s crypto crackdown in september 2021, which caused cryptocurrency exchanges to begin blocking chinese users.
At the same time, usdt issuer tether has seen significant scrutiny from regulators, especially in the united states. Now most of their concerns relate to the assets backing the usdt in circulation and tethers. Transparency about said assets. Conversely, usdc issue, a circle has had a more solid track record of revealing its reserves and though it too has faced its fair share of scrutiny. The fact that circle is also based in the united states has made usdc a more trustworthy stablecoin for individuals and institutions alike.
And last but not least, it looks like circles. Usdc could become a synthetic central bank, digital currency, as explained by the world economic forum’s recent crypto report. More about that in the description. My second crypto prediction for 2022 is that we will see more countries launch their own central bank, digital currencies or cbdc’s. Note that this prediction pertains to so-called retail cbdcs, which will be used by regular people and does not concern the wholesale cbdc’s which will be used by select individuals and institutions.
The devil is truly in the detail. Anyhow. So far, only two countries have successfully launched retail cbdcs. The first is the bahamas whose sand dollar launched in october 2020, and the second is nigeria, whose e naira launched in october 2021
According to cbdctracker.org, china, uruguay, ghana and a cluster of caribbean islands are currently in the pilot phase of their cbdc development, the final step before a full-scale rollout, although it’s not known whether all these countries will complete their cbdc pilots by the end of 2022, china is Expected to launch its digital un after the upcoming winter olympics in february, as you might have noticed what all these countries have in common is that they’re, small and partially, if not wholly dependent on the us dollar, except for china.
Of course, now the record inflation we’ve seen with the dollar has likely accelerated cbdc development around the world, as countries seek to gain more control of their money. In contrast to fiat, cbdc’s give central banks the power to create, as well as destroy the currency in circulation, which should theoretically allow them to tame inflation. The trade-off is that the central bank will be in control of everyone’s bank balance, something which both individuals and institutions would obviously resist, and for more reasons than you might think. That’S why part of me wonders whether the inflation we’re seeing is intentional, since the only way you can convince someone to adopt such a dystopian system is to inflate away the value of physical fiat. What’S interesting is that many countries are partnering with crypto projects to develop their cbdc infrastructure, notably stella and the ukraine.
This was another conspiracy of mine which came true now, if you want to learn more about a few of the countries developing cbdc’s and which cryptocurrencies could benefit check out the link in the description. My third crypto prediction for 2022 is that at least one other country will adopt btc as legal tender. The only country that currently accepts btc as legal tender is, of course, el salvador and it adopted bitcoin for the same reasons that most countries are developing cbdc’s. A deadly dependence on the us dollar, it seems that el salvador’s bitcoin adoption has been a success so far, though this may be mostly due to the inflows of capital the country has seen from the crypto industry. Whatever the reason, each passing day is proof that what el salvador is doing is working and other countries in the region are watching closely.
As i mentioned in my video about bitcoin adoption in latin america, paraguay and panama are the most likely to follow in el salvador’s footsteps. As it so happens. Paraguay is very close to creating a comprehensive framework for regulating cryptocurrency in the country, though this does not translate to bitcoin adoption per se. It does open the door to crypto companies, particularly crypto mining companies, who will be able to take advantage of paraguay’s abundant and cheap renewable energy. Paraguay also has a very similar profile to el salvador, they’re, both developing countries and dependent on the us dollar, and they both have relatively small populations.
This means it’s easier to introduce a change as drastic as a new national currency. Conversely, panama has a more developed economy and seems to be more comfortable working with the us dollar, probably because it has a better relationship with the united states. As such, it’s not nearly as likely that this country will adopt bitcoin in any meaningful manner, even though there seem to be a lot of politicians who back the proposal. My fourth crypto prediction for 2022 is that we’ll see the development and widespread adoption of decentralized digital ids i’ll start by saying that decentralized, digital ids or dids are not at all like the centralized digital ids that many governments are not so subtly pushing for these days. Dids are different because unique identities are often verified without the use of a central party.
This identifying information is not stored by a central party, and privacy is preserved. Using zero-knowledge proofs did development has historically been slow, but has picked up ever since de facto. Regulators such as the financial action task force started hinting that they would be going after self-hosted wallets in their finalized crypto recommendations. Last year. Put simply it’s possible that regulators will crack down on self-hosted wallets on the grounds that they could be used for money laundering and the like, and the best defense against.
This is a robust did, which preserves privacy while being compliant with, admittedly unjust and unjustifiable rules. This is especially relevant in the realm of decentralized finance or defy, which saw significant scrutiny from regulators last year and will likely see more of the same going forward. The concerns there are more or less the same. We can’t identify who’s using these d5 protocols. Therefore, everyone using them is automatically a criminal.
Now, as silly as this is. The fact of the matter is that the use of dids in defy will make institutional investors more comfortable dabbling in this crypto niche, and it will also open the door to the next generation of d5 protocols by allowing creditworthy users to borrow more with less collateral. Among other things, finally, dids will play a pivotal role in the development and legal recognition of decentralized autonomous organizations or dows, whose token weighted governance structures mean that the future of many crypto projects is currently directed by wales. Instead of a majority of users, you can learn more about the power of dows and dids by checking out my video about cryptocurrency governance that will be in the description. My fifth crypto prediction for 2022 is that there will be one billion crypto holders now right now.
There are around 300 million around the world and this figure is probably higher, given that most people keep their crypto on centralized exchanges and there are also probably millions of people holding shares of physically backed crypto etfs in canada and elsewhere. Now, on that note remember to keep all your coins and tokens in your own crypto wallet, because when your crypto is on an exchange, it belongs to the exchange and not to you. My top crypto wallet recommendations are in the description anyways besides the uptick in adoption. Bitcoin and ethereum experienced in 2021 many layer, 2s and ethereum competitors have also attracted tens of millions of users. This is primarily because the fees on bitcoin and ethereum are too expensive for the average person, and this could be why some layer 2s, such as polygon, are starting to see more active users than the blockchains they’re built on.
As far as crypto adoption goes, the only thing more important than low fees is accessibility and that’s something which many crypto projects have achieved through historic partnerships such as the one between stellar and moneygram, which could create hundreds of millions of crypto holders on its own other Crypto projects such as worldcoin are also aiming to onboard hundreds of millions of crypto holders by giving away free crypto. Now, as i’ve said many times before, when something is free, it means you are the product and in the case of world coin, what you’re giving in return is biometric data. Another factor driving crypto adoption is the slow collapse of the current financial system, which is further along in some countries than others. Turkey is one of many countries where crypto payments were banned because people were using them instead of their own national currency, to pay for goods and services and protect their purchasing power from the inflation of the turkish lira. I’M sure this will be tried in other countries.
Next year, as other fiat currencies begin to collapse and cbdc’s aren’t ready to fill the gap, good thing governments still haven’t twigged that crypto can’t truly be banned. Now, if you want to know just how bad inflation is in western countries, like the united states check out my video about how the consumer price index is measured using the link in the description, my sixth crypto prediction ties into my fifth crypto prediction for 2022 and That’S that the metaverse narrative will continue, along with the growth of nfts, blockchain gaming and other crypto niches, that fall under the same umbrella. In addition to the positive effects these niches will have on cryptocurrency adoption at the individual level. They’Ll also drive adoption of cryptocurrency at the institutional level, we’ve already seen over a dozen big brand companies get into nfts the latest being adidas, whose nft collection managed to briefly become the biggest by trading volume. In case you didn’t notice, most of the companies creating nft collections are in the retail or restaurant industries and that’s not a coincidence.
Both industries have been hit hard by the supply chain shortages and you don’t really need a supply chain to sell an nft. You also don’t need a physical location to showcase your apparel if you can create a virtual one, that’s just as good and as technology improves. It’S likely that the line between the two will begin to blur the overheads for maintaining such a space are much lower in the metaverse, which is certainly playing a role in the metaverse push we’ve seen over the last few months, while facebook’s meta rebrand is considered by Many to be the origin of the current metaverse movement. If you take a few steps back, you could say we were headed in that direction already. Hence why zuckerberg decided to jump aboard people are spending more and more of their time online and more of this online time is being spent immersed in multiplayer video games rather than cookie cutter social media platforms.
If you watched my most recent axi infinity update, you’ll recall that co-founder jeffrey zerlin believes the next generation of social media platforms will be indistinguishable from metaverse games and he’s been saying this since at least july 2021. In other words, it’s very likely that the next social media platform will be a blockchain game, and this is a crypto niche, that’s also being explored by big name companies in the gaming industry, such as ubisoft. The thing is that adidas, meta and ubisoft can’t move as quickly as cryptocurrency projects in these niches and all their crypto activities will be viewed with scrutiny by regulators. So, given this fact, i foresee centralized companies playing more of a role in creating the hardware required to support metaverse related endeavors, whereas decentralized crypto communities will be the primary creators of the content and experiences which will make the metaverse meaningful and valuable. This relates to my seventh crypto prediction for 2022 and that’s that there will be a huge push to decentralize cryptocurrency infrastructure beyond the blockchain.
The recent amazon web services outages and the token d listings from uni swap’s, centralized interface earlier this year, have proven that it’s no longer sufficient to have lots of miners and validators if crypto projects want to be safe from censorship and regulation. This is why many up-and-coming d5 projects, such as the sunday swap decks on cardano, have opted to host their front ends on the interplanetary file system or ipfs. Instead of a centralized cloud server. Crypto gaming projects such as gala games, have also been building out their own networks of game specific nodes. Meanwhile, metaverse projects such as decentraland have been working on ways to scale their decentralized networks of community servers which host their content.
Even smart contract cryptocurrencies such as near protocol, are pointing their developers towards decentralized storage solutions such as our weave. Now this is all well and good, but even if the entire cryptocurrency stack was to become decentralized from top to bottom, there would still be one single point of centralized failure: the internet or more accurately, internet service providers decentralizing the internet’s physical infrastructure is something that crypto Projects such as helium have been focusing on, and with some luck we should see some substantial peer-to-peer, 5g internet coverage in most major cities by the end of next year. Now, if you’ve never heard of helium before, i strongly suggest checking out my video about the project using the link in the description, my eighth crypto prediction for 2022 is that we will see more exchange-traded products for cryptocurrencies approved in the united states, specifically an ethereum futures Etf and a spot bitcoin etf, an ethereum futures etf, is particularly likely given the recent launch of micro, eth futures by the chicago mercantile exchange or cme. This suggests that there is strong institutional demand for ethereum and the 100k of micro futures contracts traded in the first two weeks adds credence to this claim. Moreover, sec chairman gary gensler has stated on multiple occasions that he’d be happy to approve any crypto etfs, backed by regulated financial instruments such as cme futures.
Hence why the sec approved three bitcoin futures etfs late last year when it comes to a spot, bitcoin etf. I speculated in a recent video that the approval of such an investment instrument depends on the quality of the cryptocustodian being used to hold the physical btc backing the etf. Naturally, the only institutions that are qualified to custody assets in the eyes of regulators are the big banks, and this is probably why wisdomtree recently refiled its spot bitcoin etf with a legacy bank. Shortly after it was rejected by the sec, speaking of which the sec has rejected almost every outstanding spot, bitcoin etf application over the last few months, two of the applications that survived the purge were submitted by grayscale and bitwise. Now the decisions on these two spot, bitcoin etf applications have been postponed to early february, so mark your calendars in case this happens because it could mark the top of the current bull market.
Now, if that comment didn’t give it away. My ninth crypto prediction for 2022 is that the current bull market will come to an end and the bear market will begin, but only if the following conditions are met. The first condition is a catalyst of some kind that would create insane amounts of hype and drive. Crypto prices to unsustainable highs, such as the approval of a spot, bitcoin etf. Now i say this because the btc top in the previous bull market happened on the same day that bitcoin futures began trading on the cme in 2017.
The likelihood that this will happen again with a spot bitcoin etf is quite high, and my evidence for this is the record amounts of inflow. We saw with the first bitcoin futures etf when it was listed in the united states. Not surprisingly, inflows and trading volume have dropped off significantly since then. The second condition that would signal the end of the current bull market is a macro factor that takes all asset markets to new all-time highs. This could be something as simple as the revival and approval of the recently killed build bank better bill which will inject trillions of dollars into the American economy.
The end of the pandemic is also a contender for this second condition, but i’m not holding my breath with that. One kovid seems determined to stick around for as long as possible. The third condition that would signal the end of the current bull market is a macro factor that tanks all asset markets and bursts bubbles across the board. The elephant in the room here is the recent ever grand default, which is being contained for the time being, though, some would argue that the dominoes have already begun to form. We just haven’t had our turn yet there’s also the federal reserve’s ongoing taper and plans to raise interest rates in march, which would have massive impacts on an economy.
That’s become addicted to this liquidity. More about that in the description. The fourth and final condition that needs to be met for the bull market to end is a crypto specific factor that crashes, the crypto market, there’s really no shortage of black swans. Here i crack down on tether. I crack down on stable coins in general, a crackdown on crypto developers because of the poorly worded provisions in the recently passed infrastructure bill, a crackdown on crypto miners and validators for the same reason, a crackdown on crypto wallets in the name of anti-money laundering, a crackdown On d5, for the same reason, a crackdown on crypto mining because of environmental concerns, a crackdown on crypto mining because of energy shortages, the usual fad now, the one thing that hasn’t been mentioned enough, however, is the massive supply shock of eth when Ethereum transitions from proof Of work to proof of stake, almost seven and a half percent of eth’s supply and counting is currently being staked that heath and any earned staking rewards are currently locked but will be unlocked when the merge happens in the next few months.
Many macro experts, such as real vision, finance, founder ralph Paul, have predicted that the selling pressure from stokers will crash the price of eth when Ethereum 2
0 goes live, i would be inclined to disagree. Were it not for the fact that the supply of eth on exchanges is at historic lows, meaning it wouldn’t take much cell pressure to pull down the price. When you combine that, with all the liquidations we’re likely to see from over leveraged futures traders, you have a recipe for a crypto crash, especially since many d5 protocols are dependent on its value. You can learn more about the effects that futures liquidations have on the crypto market by checking out my video about that link in the description. My 10th crypto prediction for 2022 could be a part of my ninth prediction, but it deserves its own section, quantum computing.
Now, funnily enough, i mentioned quantum computing in my last crypto predictions video for 2021, and my prediction back then was that quote: quantum computing will take center stage in the crypto space. Now this hasn’t exactly happened yet, but i reckon that has something to do with the fact that we’re in a bull market and talking about quantum computers in the context of cryptocurrency isn’t exactly bullish. To say the least. That said, we have seen multiple quantum resistant crypto projects emerge over the last year, including one founded by David chai. The creator of the first digital currency.
We’ve also seen a few crypto projects announced that they will be introducing quantum resistant technology in the near future, namely Algor and heck. Even some governments have scheduled to begin battle, testing quantum resistance for their central bank digital currencies this year now to be clear, I’m not saying that quantum computers will become a threat to cryptocurrency this year, that’s a long way away and on the off chance that it’s Secretly, not basically every single encrypted software in the world would be at risk and more so than a blockchain as robust as bitcoins still there’s. No denying that quantum technology has been developing at a rapid rate and the rate of development will only continue to accelerate. If and when quantum computing will have, an impact on cryptocurrency remains to be seen. In the meantime, you can learn all about quantum computing and its effects on cryptocurrency, using the link in the description now.
My final crypto prediction for 2022 is that the coin bureau will hit 3 million subscribers on YouTube, and the great thing about this prediction is that it’s something that all of you can help me with. My mission has and always will be to create the highest quality. Crypto content in the world, some would say that this is what I’ve been doing ever since the channel began back in 2019, but i want to do better and i want to keep raising that bar for all the other crypto content creators out there too. That’s why this time around, i want your input. So what do you want to see more of from the coin bureau in 2022, before you drop a comment?
Note that we already have a second channel called coin bureau, eclipse where you can look behind the scenes and learn more about the team. We also already have a Spanish version of the coin bureau and a Japanese channel and plans to expand to other widely spoken languages. We, of course, have a tick, tock, twitter, Instagram and telegram channel, along with a weekly newsletter that reveals my personal crypto portfolio. We even have a crypto podcast coming up with i heart radio, where i simplify complex crypto topics in hour-long discussions with the one and only mad mike now coin. Bureau veterans will remember that this is the guy i used in examples in earlier videos and as you’ll see when the podcast comes around in February.
Mike is very real and very mad, and if you manage to make it to the upcoming coin bureau event in London, you might just get to meet him, so you have been warned so what else? What’s missing? Please let me know in the comments below smash the like button. If you enjoyed the video and remember to subscribe to the channel and ping that notification bell before you go, the only thing left to shout out is the coin bureau merch store, which is packed with beanies, hoodies and tees with designs such as these and more links To all these resources are in the description as always, and finally thank you so much for watching folks, it’s been a hell of a year and i can’t wait to see what the next one has in store. Whatever happens, keep calm and hold on happy new year.