Welcome back to crypto ceros, i am George, we’re all George. So today i want to talk about bitcoin. Is it heading up or down it’s a simple question yet so difficult to answer so today, I’m gonna show you some things that point both ways and let you decide where it’s heading and I’m gonna give you my opinion where i think it’s heading all Right, let’s get started thanks for tuning in, as always smash the like subscribe to channel two streams, almost every day, 11 30 and 8 30 pm central standard time, although sometimes a little late. So, that’s why you want to hit that notification bell to get notified and follow me on twitter, Facebook, Instagram and check out all the latest news article and guides at cryptosros.com, which is 24×7 by the way.
All right guys welcome, welcome, welcome and I’ll get right to it, since i am a little late, but you can see, bitcoin is still stuck in. The same area has not moved for quite some time in fact, about a month. Now, basically, you know hugging around this. 47, 000 mark right and many people are wondering. Is it going to go up or down?
There’s just a lot of fear right now, so you can see that the fear and greed index is still at 23, which is in the extreme fear level, and i’ve covered this yesterday last night and many weeks before, right, whatever bitcoin tends to get into extreme fear Level and it stays there for quite some time – you know what’s going to happen next, there tends to be a pretty good recovery and you can see that over the last month or so the fear level has been pretty down and stuck in that 20 range. However, however, uh is bitcoin going to go up or down, let’s look at short term and then let’s talk about long term too. First of all, if you look at headlines like this you’ll see that there are still a lot of bitcoin bulls out there, the founder of nexo, which is one of the leading lending platforms out there them celsius and blackfy there’s a few of them. But the co-founder believes that bitcoin will go to a hundred thousand dollars right and he believes it’s just because of growing adoption and uh he’s not alone el salvador. President president buchelli also expects bitcoin to hit a hundred thousand dollars, and he believes that there’s going to be more countries adopting bitcoin as legal tender just overall again, more adoption right and plan b is still sticking with this stock to flow basically recognizes right now that There’S just not a whole lot of movement.
We’Ve been stuck in between 40 and 60 range for quite some time, and it’s very different than previous cycles. In 2013, you can see bitcoin already ran up and started coming down in 2017. It ready ran up and started coming down, but in 2022 or 2021 and 2022 it hasn’t really done either. It’S still holding but plan b believes that stock to flow is still on track. So these are the bullish cases, but what about are there bears?
Well, of course, there is uh, there’s not too many, but i was digging through this headline and i saw this carol. Alexander professor of finance, at sussex university sees bitcoin going as low as 10 000 in 2022. So obviously there are. There are bulls, but there are also bears, and i went to her blog and i was wondering why she thinks bitcoins will go down to ten thousand and her. Her rationale is tether and how it’s manipulated.
Um people use leverage like 100x leverage which actually she’s wrong, because finance doesn’t have 100x leverage anymore only 25. But still i get her point and she’s arguing that the whales are using tether using large amounts of bitcoin and they can manipulate the market. And eventually it’s all gon na be driven down to ten thousand dollars. So there are some bitcoin bears out there right so who’s correct. Are we going up or down it’s undetermined at this point but short term?
Let me show you a few things that could change your mind. This is interesting. This is uh futures, open interest, leverage ratio, and this is something i’ve told you guys don’t play with leverage because you’re just risking it. However, people are not listening. So, according this right now, there’s an enormous amount of leverage right now built up, but this is both ends both longs and shorts, and you just don’t know what may happen.
But if you look at history going back to april any time you can see it’s highlighted even in red anytime leverage gets up to a certain point. There tends to be volatility, a build up and back in april that buildup was negative back in august. The buildup was positive, then you had september november december, which all turned out to be negative and we’re at that point where leverage buildup is at a high and something’s about to happen, so we could either break up or down if you’re, using history, at least in Last year there tends to be more downs than ups, but remember fear. Level is low right now. Bitcoin has been consolidating for a very long time, just like when it was in a 30 000, so that doesn’t necessarily mean that bitcoin will be going down this time, but it does seem like some explosive movement is about to come short term short term.
Now. Here’S something else, i’m just going to throw out there normally. Normally, i don’t show a lot of ta, but i am going to show this one because i talked about 30 000 and how this ta trader is arguing. That bitcoin on its current trajectory, looks very much like the 30 000 range and it needs to come down. And hit and touch 42 000 before it starts bouncing up just like when it fell down to 30 000.
It actually hit about like 28 000, and it hit it one more time before going up. So there are some traders, that’s anticipating that bitcoin short term will go down, but again will it or will it just find his footing at where we are now and it has been found. It has been very, very strong and continue forward and we may see that bump up. So that’s short term and again you got long case and short k. I mean long uh get the.
Let me take that back uh. You have thesis on both sides, whether or not bitcoins can go up or down and short term there’s arguments for both. But for me i’m looking at long term and long term thesis is upwards and i’ll. Tell you why i’ll tell you why, for example, jp morgan, i’ve covered this before is say: institutional investors are replacing gold with bitcoin right, but here’s the thing: it’s not just institutional investors, it’s basically retail investors and everyone else around the world. I don’t know anyone.
Honestly. That’S buying gold. At this point, and even here we go warden professor jeremy siegel says bitcoin has replaced gold as an inflation hedge for millennials, and that is true. You look at all the young adults out there. Anyone that’s getting in the game.
None of them is thinking about gold. No one is thinking about gold right now right, so this will be a continuous continuing thing where it’s only going to make bitcoin stronger because as millennials and institutions and public trade companies, as they move forward, they’re going to look at ways to get involved with bitcoin. Maybe to maybe for life-changing wealth, but also as a hedge against inflation. So this is not going to go away. This is still going to be ongoing and we know inflation is real, it’s no longer transitory and i had to look up what that really means.
There was this term by you, know: fat cheribo powell thrown out there transitory. What does that mean exactly? Basically, it means that he believes it’s going to pass and it’s not going to cause economic damage, but now he has removed that thought because he’s like well. No, that is wrong because inflation is fl, is sky high and reaching seven percent and we’ll probably reach eight percent nine percent ten percent soon. So that’s why tapering needs to start faster rate hikes need to start faster.
So obviously it’s not transitory, but that’s why? It’S a huge uh endorsement for bitcoin, because no one’s buying gold and gold is not a good hedge against inflation. Last year was down it’s the only investment that went down right. What isn’t down is bitcoin up 60 plus percent in 2021.
So, there’s that, okay, what else is there?
Well, you still have the miners – and this is just in marathon miners now owns 8133 bitcoins worth 375 million and unlike miners before which sold off whenever they felt like they were too in the green, and they want to lock in some profits. That’S just not the case anymore. These miners continue to hold, they continue to mine and hold, and mine and hold they don’t sell any of it, because now they figured out they’re, just gon na borrow against their bitcoin and continue to buy more miners and mine, more bitcoin and hold. So the miners are not selling, there’s, basically no new bitcoins being released out in the market. You have to think about that.
For a second, more than 90 percent of bitcoin has been mined. Everyone is trying to mine the last ten percent. The last one percent will take a hundred years to do so right now, everyone’s trying to get that last nine percent and guess what the nine percent is being held by the miners, they’re not being released. So just think about that everyone is fighting over what exists. Now and the circular supply on exchange is about 16.
That means 84 is held by long-term holders like you and i, by now these institutions and the miners, so there’s very, very very little of it left out there. This is what people don’t realize. The big boys, the smart money, keep accumulating. Why retail is panicking and worrying about short-term volatility? Is it gon na go down to 42 or is it going to stay?
Is it going to pump up tomorrow? You know there’s a lot of volatility, but retail investors are panicking while the big boys are accumulating and that’s what i want to follow. I want to follow what these guys are doing and here’s another good example of long-term holders. The third largest bitcoin address, the third largest whale just bought another 21 million dollars with the bitcoin and he has been buying. He or she, i should say excuse me – has been buying bitcoin any anytime.
It hits 46 000
So he just bought he or she again. I apologize 456 bitcoin and not too long ago, 241 bitcoin not too long ago, 120, bitcoin and not too long ago, 136, bitcoin and then 137 bitcoin. So he or she continues to accumulate even the ultra rich. The ultra huge mega whales of bitcoin is still buying and holding not selling they own billions of bitcoin. Yet they know it’s going to be worth more in the future, so they will continue to buy and hold, buy and hold it’s very, very important right and of course, while this is happening, the exchanges, the reserves, keeps dropping, keep dropping more and more and more and More and more and more like i said, everyone is fighting over that 16 percent.
That’S left on exchanges and the 16 keeps dropping more and more. Eventually, it’s going to drop to such a low point that people can’t even buy bitcoin on the exchanges. Maybe that’s not gon na be soon, but in the next five to ten years, you’re gon na see that reserves drop significantly to the point where yeah it will be very hard to even buy bitcoin at least hold bitcoins, let’s say an open market. Maybe you have to then switch to sets right and very little stats at that, but this is happening. This is happening.
So what’s the point to all this is bitcoin heading up or down my thesis, my narrative, my uh. My whole thing is long term. It’S going to go up you just it’s undeniably at this point, all the facts and figures point to bitcoin becoming more scarce, more adoption, more buying, more holding and there’s only one direction. Bitcoin could go and that’s upwards short term, a lot of speculation. A lot of ta a lot of technical analysis, a lot of charts, a lot of moving averages and indicators, and you know what it’s anyone’s guess: 50 percent of the time it’s right, 50 times the wrong right and there’s a lot of people.
That’S fearful short term because they just don’t know it seems like retail investors want confirmation. They must know that it has to go in this direction before they make a move. But that’s just not the thing. That’S trying to trade, that’s trying to outsmart the market. What you want to pay attention to is how to invest, how to invest long term, how to invest for life-changing wealth or simply financial freedom.
That is what everyone needs to concentrate on, not worry so much about short-term day-to-day volatility, all right. So that’s what i want to say about bitcoin and then just a few other little things that are interesting. Hopefully number one is uh melania trump, all of a sudden, uh retweeted this and this this came out yesterday. I didn’t cover this yesterday, but i thought i’d cover it. It’S on kryptos.
om and she’s, not only shilling, her own nfts, but also just recapping bitcoin’s 13th birthday, which shocked the hell out of people he’s a melania’s husband, of course, uh donald trump. President trump was not a fan of bitcoin before so seems like she has turned. I don’t know if she’s been converted or she’s simply doing it because she wants to promote her nfts. I don’t know, but i thought that’s just very, very interesting. A lot of people got caught off guard with that.
Another big news that came out today is china is finally launching the digital yuan and interesting enough they’re launching their app on both ios and android. So you know china usually controls all the marketplaces controls all the social media and everything, but they are launching this on ios in the apple uh, apple place, apple play, store, no apple, store, app store and google play store, which is interesting and people will be able To use this and utilize their digital yuan um freely, so china is moving forward. Uh us right now has no response. Other countries are trying to come out their cbdc’s right, but they are definitely ahead of the game right now and we’ll see what this brings and whether or not china is ready to fully embrace crypto, because we know they’re all about control. But what about crypto?
In general, i’m theorizing they will cater to their own in the future, and i think that’s going to be big for many projects in the future, all right and then. Lastly, i have to announce this of course v chain. One of the projects i support have now announced their own stable coin. The very first stable coin within vechain thor’s blockchain called v usd. Now this is different than what was speculated because just last night i covered about this idea about coming out the algorithmic, stable coin and introducing token burning, but now it seems like they don’t want to do that.
They want to go in a different direction. So this is actually backed by usd, so every single v usd minted will be fully backed by physical reserves of fiat money that could redeem that one-to-one ratio at any given time and the reason why they want to do this is because they want to integrate it Into the thor wallet and make it easy for people to actually mint vusds and actually burn it when they don’t so they want to make it so that it’s actually pegged to a dollar. In my opinion, i would have preferred to see this as an algorithmic. Stable coin, because you could do more with it in terms of tying it up to maybe v thor or vet and actually introducing some kind of token burning with every vusd that gets created, you burn a vet, something like that like what terra is doing, and it Has been very, very successful with tara but they’re going a different direction, and this is still positive, because why? Because v chain, realizes that they have not been taking advantage of d5 d5, is what’s hot right now, whether or not your b2b project or b2c d5 suits both.
So they really want to jump into d5 for 2022
Last night i covered a couple exchanges that came out dexes. I should say right, but now there’s gon na be more and then now you can integrate this with other chains too, and there’s more that they want to do with. You know smart contract settlements and and economics, and also how to integrate it with the thor. I mean there’s a lot of things that they’re working on right now, but i did want to announce this. This is pretty big for v chain and i got to say it’s about time that they’re really taking defy seriously right, so just want to cover that all right outside of that.
You know today, overall still kind of kind of neutral. You got some projects starting turning green right, some that are still in red, but overall, the market is still seems to be waiting right. A lot of retail people, retail investors are waiting waiting for some kind of confirmation, but you know what uh bitcoin will move. It will you just have to be patient, it’s just a matter of being patient at this point. All right, that’s it!
Now, let’s do some q, a all right, scrolling up tiberia, says gold lost value in 2021. Enough said end the story tko win for bitcoin. That is true. That is true. I don’t i don’t know what peter schiff says anymore.
You know i i i saw him on pomp show maybe a few months ago and he was asked why gold has not gone up and uh and i forgot what he said, but whatever he said, just didn’t make a whole lot of sense, because everything else everything Else it’s seen as store value has gone up everything that’s seen as a hedging. Inflation has gone up, even things that shouldn’t be a hedge of inflation has gone up except gold. Gold is the only investment that did not go up and actually ended. In negative i mean literally every single investment vehicle out there, not just bitcoin and crypto, but stocks. You know, equities um, you could look at nfts, you could look at basketball, baseball cards.
You could look at watches, you could look at cars, i mean you could argue, anything has done better than gold in 2021 and probably 2022
All right, um, birdtown music group, says xrp fodders are here, there’s no fodders of xrp. Xrp is a fine project. If you want uh, if you want a coin, that just simply will not move, but it is still in the top 10. uh that lawsuit needs to be settled before before it really starts moving again uh microstrategy question mark i don’t know what your question is: yes, Microstrategy has been buying a whole lot of bitcoin uh. I saw you on tv wearing the same shirt.
No, that was a sweater look again. I was on yahoo finance um, let’s see uh, have you seen ragsie? No, i have no idea who she is, but if she likes legos, that’s uh, that’s a plus in my book. I have not had any chance to build any legos at all um. What do you think about algo?
Would you buy a chance at today’s price? Well, it would have been better uh before it pumped up the last day or so pumped up a little bit. Um algo is a fantastic project. You know for me, i’m not as familiar with them as say some of the other l1, but i know they’re making huge strides in in latin america um, including el salvador, and they do have a robust system too for d5 and nfts more so with nfts. As far as i know, i don’t know how robust their d5 ecosystem is.
To be honest. So again not a hundred percent familiar with them, but i know that they are making making waves. Let’S see, cbdc’s is lower than bad coins like sheep cbdc’s can’t be stopped. Okay – and you got to think about this, would you rather have let’s say a digital usd uh versus tether? I mean with all the controversy around tether.
I would rather have a digital usd than tether, not to say i want to get rid of the other stable coins. I think stable coins serve a purpose, but you know what, if something replaces tether that that’s fine by me and many other countries. The reason why they want to introduce the cbdc is for stability, because their own fiat has collapsed or keeps inflating at a hyperinflation rate, so they are looking to come up with something better. You know, and some countries may implement bitcoin as their their reserve. They may sell off all their gold and go with bitcoin and then imagine um backing cbdc’s with bitcoin right.
I mean that that’s wild, that’s wild and could could be a possibility in the future. Bro xrp is going to be big once lawsuit is over, like keep in mind. Xrp didn’t always have the lawsuits in uh in three years. Basically, it has not moved okay, so keep that in mind, and i still don’t like the premise of xrp. I mean i just don’t uh.
Do i like kadena? Yes, i’ve talked about that many times um. I think they’re still early they’re, still growing, i’m looking forward to what cadx is going to do for them with their uh with their new decks and they rather release their beta mobile wallet. So uh helium. There is actually a fantastic article about helium on cryptozoros.
om, but i like hineo. If you check my older video in 2021, i covered them when they were like dirt cheap. When i discovered them, i thought they were very promising and they got more promising because they went into 5g. They were more about low band, wi-fi mesh network and then they integrated and got insult involved with 5g and they have a big partnership with this network. So now they’re helping deploy 5g antennas in cities so they’re at actually in a really good spot.
5G expansion is very big, so i like them. I like them. A lot annie says: i know you did a sponsor talk about bald. Are they legit like celsius, nexo or questionable, since they are new they’re, actually not new they’re? Actually, not new they’ve been around for quite a long time.
Uh. Are they as reputable as celsius or nexo or blockfi? That’S to be determined, but i know they have been around quite a lot and they are also us-based. So i would say if you want to look at them, do more research, but they have been around for for a while uh thoughts on harmony. Can you see it reaching polygons price, uh yeah, but right now, what’s really driving harmony is defy kingdoms which is exploding, and so it’s really helping them, but um harmony also has you know pretty pretty good and growing ecosystem so as long as they continue forward growing The ecosystem – and i know they are right – they have on fun to get more daps involved, they’re getting bridges built.
You know, there’s a lot of things that they’re working on so as long as they continue yes, one day they can definitely go higher brian. I love your channel watch almost every single day. I appreciate that uh storm x, i’ve always been neutron star max. Am i in the matter verse not right now, but i want to be. I want to be uh jeff.
I appreciate it when i do those interviews. I keep my answers very short and precise. Like you said, that’s what i try to do. I don’t you know i i don’t. I don’t try to uh over talk, but i wish they would ask more questions.
They always tell me like hey, you know your segment’s gon na, be about 10 minutes right and then like, like yesterday’s segment was like six minutes. So that’s because there’s like no follow-up questions they’re, just like those hosts, are trained to just ask a few questions. That’S it. They don’t really know much about the topics. I think so.
They can’t really ask follow-up questions, so uh yeah, but you know it’s fun, it’s fun. If they ask me i’ll continue to go on uh biggest themes to look forward to in 2022. You know bigger the biggest statement. 2022. I still think it’s the growth there’s two themes, number one is growth of l ones.
I think l ones are gon na become more dominant and, as that, as that grows right, my strategy of 50 25 25 – i think, needs to be changed because right now, 2021 proved at least to me, because short term there’s always going to be coins that stay Stronger than bitcoin right, but an entire year that proves to me that these l1s are finally ready to stand on their own, and that is why they’re gaining on bitcoin their dominance is going up and bitcoin dom is going down so um, i’m going to rethink my Portfolio, you know distribution or portfolio strategy, because i think in 2022 the l1s are going to continue to get stronger and the second theme is, i think, anything that deals with matter versus like play: digger playing to earn games or meta versus themselves and nfts that’s involved. I think they will get stronger too. So those are two themes. Uh, let’s see what else? Oh and tax tax software look at coin tracking on the screen there.
If d5 kingdom market cap was verified, there would be a top 90 1.3 billion first gamified ducks i’ve. Seen yet that’s part of the reason why they’re doing so? Well, you really can’t get that jewel token anywhere outside their decks, but i know they have a separate token. I think called one.
I don’t know where that that’s being held, but defy kingdoms is trying to become the next axi and they’re not too far off they’re. Only you know 4x off from there. So if they continue to grow, it’ll be great for them, but also it’s really really helping harmony. I mean harmony has been doing very well because of them uh, where’s harmony. Maybe i passed them already.
There were several billion right here, so you could see harmony started. Moving recently has been moving up a lot within the last 30 days and 90 days, mostly because of t5 kingdoms, but harmony is not just uh, you know it’s not just one dapp ecosystem, they have a lot. They have a lot in their ecosystem. Um anything yeah. Someone says aydah is dead.
I think that’s a mistake. I don’t think people should count. Ada is dead and, first of all, first of all look at it. If aydah is dead, it will not be in the top ten. Let’S, just let’s just let’s just call that out right away and second of all, you know, cardano they’re, still building out right, 2022 could be a big year for them.
I’Ve seen it before when they were below 10 cents, they would simply not move until they did so. I would not give up on cardano just yet did you see actually adding on brave browser the new land, axi, land and metaverse? I forgot if it’s on sand or decentralized decentralized, i did not see that i did not see that so i’ll have to look into it. Uh are you kidding all coin season is full fact. No.
This is not there’s a lot. This is not all coin season. If you live through the last few weeks of 2018, then that then you know that’s true. All coin season, literally every day, 20 30 gains every day for basically four weeks. That’S true all coin season, but uh there’s no doubt that all coins have been getting stronger, especially the l ones, which shows that, yes, they are ready to stand on their own they’re, ready to decouple away from bitcoin and because they have true usage d5.
Having close to 300 billion dollars, locked in d5 is legit, it’s real people are using defy right. This didn’t happen before in 2017 or 2018.
D5 was non-existent, it wasn’t until 2020, late 2020, when d5 started coming up, so l ones are definitely um starting to that to decouple that people have asked me before like when are they going to decouple? 2021 is the year? They start decoupling, not completely, but they have that’s why you could see something like someone like ethereum this, the bitcoin dominance i mean ethereum dominance has been slowly creeping up over the last few weeks.
It was below 20. It was like 19 now, it’s above 20 right. It’S slow and gradual. You may not notice it day to day, but after a week a month six months, you’ll notice that the dominance is increasing um all right, i think that’s it be patient. D5 kingdoms.
Decks: lots of system errors when attempted to purchase token, but your transaction will eventually go through well. That doesn’t sound very good, but thanks for the warning, thanks for the heads up, uh is the best of all questions behind us. No, like i said, one of the main things of 2022 is the is the growing dominance of l ones. I believe i don’t think that’s going to stop. I think l ones will continue to get stronger as the ecosystem gets bigger and more money flows in and trust me more money is go flowing, not just from retail.
Even institutions are eyeing these big l ones. Right i mean there was. There was an article recently how there was about 100 to 150 million dollars going into polygon and many others. Ftx continues to support. Solana and binance themselves is throwing a lot of money out there right, tara, same thing, uh there’s a lot of money flowing in so l ones.
I think they’re gon na get stronger all right, guys, that’s pretty much it overall. Hopefully you guys enjoy. This is bitcoin going up or down short term. No one really knows everyone’s guessing right, but long term. I know where it’s heading.
It’S heading up right and there’s just a lot of a lot of support, um a lot of sport cases for that there’s just so many and i cover them every single day. So if you want to learn more make sure you continue to tune in smash it a like guys, subscribe to the channel and i’ll see you guys tonight, 8 30 p.m. Central standard time all right, take care, bye,