Snipers, you have to see what’s happening. The Cryptocurrency market today as the Bitcoin price is clearly coming down to test the extremely important support level at thirty-two thousand US dollars, where we have this triangle formation and we have this low and higher low. And at this point, if thirty-two thousand were to break, we are going to see another low form beyond this higher low. And that would confirm a breakdown scenario. And if we were to take the schematics of this triangle, because our Twitter has been blowing up asking about the downside scenario for Bitcoin, I’m going to go into the exact downside scenario.
The schematics of this triangle say that the twenty thousand dollar level is on the table. And notice how that shows confluence with this extremely multi-year support level that started from the initial drop here when we saw the March 20, 20 prices below four thousand US dollars.
And we found support here that shows confluence at this extremely important level that we are currently testing right now. And notice how this is also the level where we have the previous all-time high at nineteen thousand seven hundred ninety-eight, looking at the finance chart and then the eighteen thousand four hundred and sixty dollars level, which is also an extremely key level for Bitcoin. And if we look at the weekly chart, it is not a coincidence that this is also showing confluence here with the one hundred weeks moving average.
And so are we going to see Bitcoin come down to the twenty thousand dollars level? I’m going to talk about the downside scenario.
And more importantly, what we’re going to do today is we’re going to look at levels inside of this range between thirty-five thousand US dollars and twenty-four thousand US dollars that are also extremely important. So we can understand where the volume might come in if we start to see the downside scenario play out because it is clear we have to address this. And as an umpire, if we look at the weekly candle on the 21st of December and we look at the candle high, you notice how the candle high is twenty-eight thousand four hundred and twenty-two.
And so we’re going to put this year as an extremely important level at twenty thousand four hundred and twenty just to round the number. And then if we look at the candle low the week after, on the twenty-eighth of December, the candle low at twenty-five thousand eight hundred and eighty on the dot is also going to be an extremely important level.
So we have that twenty-five thousand eight hundred and eighty dollars level. And this right here is a pocket now that Bitcoin has the potential to come in. And in my opinion, we’re going to see volume come in below the thirty thousand dollar level if we breach this low.
And I see that because if we go into the six-hour institutions sometimes like to avoid the two hundred and forty-minute chart, which is the 4-hour chart because a lot of traders are on that chart and so they will imprint their moves on different time frames. The six-hour chart obviously shows that there’s a lot of buy pressure here, but we are starting to see the sellers come in and bring the price down. And so if this triangle breaks to the downside at thirty-two thousand US dollars, we’ve already come down to test the support. And that’s why I had to get this update to you guys.
You can see the candle and the daily low right now is thirty-one thousand seven hundred and ten.
But of course, on a 4-hour candle, we’ve maintained ourselves at this support. We haven’t yet broken the support. So there’s no confirmation. But this is coming towards a point where Bitcoin is going to make a decision. And for those that are tuned in to our Twitter, notice how on our Twitter we tweeted out Bitcoin about to show weakness 13 hours ago when the Japanese markets opened down two percent for the day.
Gapping down the traditional markets affects the Cryptocurrency markets. So we sent out this tweet for those not following us on Twitter, make sure to go to the link in the description below. Follow us on Twitter. But when we look at what’s happening here to Bitcoin, we have to realize that this support level is being tested right now. And if we see this break to the downside, there is a pocket here at twenty-eight thousand four hundred and twenty, which is going to act as an extremely important support level for Bitcoin.
And below that, we have twenty-five thousand eight hundred and eighty. And so inside of this pocket, between twenty-six thousand and twenty-eight thousand five hundred, in my opinion, is going to be the area that you would want to start dollar-cost averaging positions into Bitcoin for a long term hold, because, in my opinion, there are several downside scenarios and several levels of severity that we could see.
And I’m going to condense them down into three different scenarios. If Bitcoin crosses that thirty-two thousand dollars support level once again and we start to see hourly and 4-hour confirmations, there is a potential. We come down to twenty-eight thousand four hundred and twenty.
I believe that there will be some volume in this area, but I also believe that Wick’s are highly likely. And so the first scenario would be a wick inside of the pocket between twenty-eight thousand four hundred and twenty and twenty-five thousand eight hundred and eighty if we see. A more extreme level of severity with the sell-off, depending on the volume, then we want to look at the pocket here at twenty-five thousand eight hundred and eighty and twenty-four thousand U.S.Dollars.
If we see the most severe scenario of the downside, in my opinion, it is highly likely that twenty thousand gets tested again at nineteen thousand seven hundred and ninety-eight. And that would be my worst-case scenario for this bear market. And I see that confidently because I believe this is going to be an extended bull market that has a mini bear market inside of it. I don’t believe the fundamentals have changed for the Cryptocurrency market long term. I am extremely bullish.
And so this is the worst-case scenario, in my opinion, at twenty thousand US dollars. And it’s not a coincidence that on the weekly chart, what do we also have at that level showing confluence? We have the one hundred weeks moving average.
And so I think this was an important scenario to address because it is on the table and I have to be as transparent as possible with you guys. And so when we look at the more micro timeframes on this weekly chart, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see that level tested.
And I believe there is going to be a lot of volume below 30000. And it’s really up to the severity of what we’re going to see to determine whether or not we’re going to see this play out all the way down to the twenty thousand dollar level. And so we have to just monitor the key levels on the way. We know there are several roadblocks. If we start to see volume at those levels, that could be an indicator that that’s where the downside.
This is an extremely bullish market in the macro. And I always want to maintain that statement and that stance. Even as an umpire, realize that I dedicate my time to cover the Bitcoin market specifically. We do cover every other market outside of that. But I dedicate my time to Bitcoin because I believe in this market.
And you guys are watching the Snipers channel. My name is Naeem Alobaidi. Remember to smash the like button for the YouTube algorithm. So that’s the downside scenario for Bitcoin. Do you like how I just shoved it into the intro?
Well, now let’s look at what could we see in the more micro timeframes to confirm these scenarios? Well, let’s first start on the hour time frame. So at this point, there’s clear. So pressure with Bitcoin right now testing the thirty-two thousand US dollar level.
If we start to see continued sell pressure and a breach of thirty-two thousand, in my opinion, we’re going to see one of these downside scenarios play out.
We need a monitor twenty-eight thousand four hundred and twenty twenty-five thousand eight hundred and eighty and twenty-three thousand seven hundred and ninety-five. Those are going to be the first areas that we’re going to start to see buyers come in. And then, of course, the twenty thousand dollar level or just below that is going to be the worst-case scenario.
If we were to talk exact numbers, we can see eighteen thousand six hundred and sixty is the most absolute bearish scenario I could see right now based on what the chart is telling us. And so that is the downside scenario.
Now, what are the early signs of a rescue operation? So I’d like to keep things simple. There are two scenarios, right? The early signs of a rescue operation at this point is reclaiming thirty-four thousand eight hundred. If we can get above that, that is very positive.
In my opinion. That would be the most preferred scenario because then this would still be considered just another higher low is as much as most of you don’t want to hear that.
Yes, it’s very close to the previous high or low, but it would still be considered a high or low. And so we have to keep that scenario on the table for the upside. If we reclaim thirty-four thousand eight hundred, then above the weekly open here at thirty-six thousand, I think is when we’ll start to be a little bit more comfortable with the market, assuming an upside scenario.
But for now, we have to address the downside. And when we look at the environment outside of Bitcoin, we’ll cover Altcoins here. Ethereum, of course, the main Altcoin, just as we’ve been talking about already coming down below two thousand U.S. dollars with a low right now of 1890 for the day, it looks like we’re going to head down, possibly test the fifteen hundred dollar level.
We want to monitor this chart because that Damiana Bitcoin chart is showing that we could see a scenario now where Ethereum from its current point can still come down up to 14 percent and still be in a bullish macro flag, but still see that fourteen percent downside. And if we were to just match that with the US dollar chart, then we’re looking at a price of just around that sixteen hundred to fifteen hundred dollar area.
So could we see a Ethereum show more volatility than Bitcoin? I think that’s clear right now. Which one is going to be the stronger asset during times of fear in the cryptocurrency market?
Bitcoin is always a stronger asset. And you can see here that’s clear. With the total cryptocurrency market now showing a decisive break of the 200 days moving average heading towards the one point one three trillion dollars market cap level, currently sitting at one point thirty-five trillion dollars in market cap. We want to monitor this chart of Bitcoin dominance here on the daily chart. You can see we’re showing strength right now, it looks like we want to come up to 50 percent dominance that typically happens when there’s fear in the market.
So I’m not saying that Altcoins are in a bear market because I’m still taking longus on Altcoins. And I do that because it’s the only chart that’s actually still in a bull market. It’s above the 20 weeks moving average and home base. So Altcoins are still very good, but you can’t be in these fundamentally broke Altcoins is like what I like to call them, like, you know, these Naeem coins or these Altcoins like dogecoin. Right.
Those are the ones that going to see the most severe downside in these bear markets. So stick to coins that have fundamentals. And, you know, that’s a whole nother topic outside of technical analysis. But Altcoins are still doing fine above the 20 weeks moving average. So we’ll monitor this.
But let’s talk about what’s happening to the traditional markets. So obviously, this is all happening prior to the market open, just like we predicted yesterday.
I said if we start to see Monday open up and we had a retest and we didn’t break the previous weekly open with Bitcoin. If you guys watch the content yesterday for those who subscribe to the YouTube channel. I talked about the scenario, we’d come down, retest that, and just get rejected.
That’s exactly what’s happening. We look at the traditional markets, the DXY just doing a garden variety market retest of an important level. But it’s still in an extremely bullish rally right now. And this has only been progressing for the last four days at this point. And so this is a rocket that has yet to be stopped.
And we need to watch this because right now the markets are adjusting to what the DXY is doing. And it’s clear right now the S&P 500, we did gap down.
If we just pull up the SPY chart, not the futures chart for the largest traditional market in the world, the strongest traditional market you can see, we did gap down. We could just come up, fill this gap and continue to lower. It looks like that’s what we want to do here.
And I see that because the largest market outside of the S&P, five hundred Japan is how we predicted the drop before we breached thirty-six thousand yesterday. I said we’re going to come down because of what happened. We saw Japanese markets open. You can see we’re down showing a lot of bearish price action. And then outside of markets like the CSI, three hundred also showing weakness.
So we need to address the weakness in the markets, especially traditional markets because it’s all happening because the DXY and right now Bitcoin are adjusting to this.
So we’re going to continue to monitor the DXY. But for Bitcoin right now, we’re at a very critical level. And so I wanted to just address the most severe downside scenario that I could see right now and also where we need to get to claim a rescue operation. And with that, I do want to pick a giveaway winner for one of my favorite books on investing, mastering Bitcoin.
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