You just got wrecked how many bitcoins does it take to get some goddamn respect in this town? What’S going on guys, it’s kdub here with another episode of crypto zombie, welcome back to the channel hope you’re having a great day today, bitcoin continuing to put in lower highs on a daily. I think at this point it is quite confirmed that we are in fact in a bare market.
On the daily time frame, we have fallen below the 200 daily moving average. We need to talk about the significance of these levels and although, while some people are having some hope on the lower time frames saying that we do look like we’re curving up, we might have some money flow coming to the upside.
Maybe we do have that breakout. While things are ultimately looking quite grim for bitcoin, but before everybody freaks out and assumes that I’m just going to be a total bear, this video – no not exactly there actually is one thing, particular that if we have a look at it could be the last sort Of hope for bitcoin, because every single time that this happens, we do at least minimally have a relief rally.
So is bitcoin going to actually have that relief rally to the upside, or are we looking to just crash down to these low levels like some people have been calling for? Well, that’s what I want to talk about today, we’re going to keep today’s video super quick. If that sounds good to you, there really hasn’t been much to talk about.
We’ve has just been bouncing between the same range, but if you are interested make sure that you turn on those bell notifications, I will be putting out these videos when I do feel like these updates are necessary and in today’s video i do want to discuss exactly what Is happening right now and, as you guys can see, we are essentially being held down by these trends right.
So what we had up here, uh was, we did have this peak right and if we follow this all the way down, you could see that bitcoin had multiple touches right here, right here and finally again right here, where we finally broke through to the downside and When we did, we had this massive tumble now we do know that when you have a resistance um that is, you know, flipped into support, and then that support gets broken right. The more times you hit something it weakens and you create the possibility of falling through right. Imagine if you were like jumping on a trampoline or you were hitting a wall eventually right it. It starts to weaken and you break through either to the upside or to the downside right.
Well, you could see. We’Ve only actually tried to test that once right here, but what we have done is we’ve taken this previous support, which technically has been supporting back here. Once okay and we’ve already touched it one two three four times you can see right here now if we do in fact break down to the downside and bitcoin does fall back down to these levels. I do believe that we will see most likely something very similar. Like what we saw here, are we going to have another 50 pullbacks?
I’m not sure I’m not going to go out on a limb and say it’s going to be a 50 pullback, but it would definitely not be good for bitcoin and it would certainly be uh. Probably an excellent opportunity to short, if you guys are interested, I’m most likely gonna, take that short myself and I’m not a bitcoin bear, but guys. This is just what I’m seeing in the charts. i’m just being realistic. Now keep in mind, keep in mind.
We could flip to the upside right because we are in this very, very credit. Let me get some of this drawing out of here. We are at this very critical level and uh. You know you can see. We are in this blue box territory right here.
So what would actually be kind of good short term is if we could break above this right here, a right break above this resistance. That was our previous support and then retest it as support. Now that would be very bullish for bitcoin, and then I do believe that we would have a bit of a reversal in the cards now.
Just having a look right here, you can see that of course we are below all of the major moving averages, but if we actually zoom in on something that is also happening right now – and some of you may say well, it’s a lagging indicator. It doesn’t really matter.
Well, we did in fact have our death cross on the 50 and, on you know, the 50 moving below the 200. But if you actually look right here, we’re actually looking to have another death cross as well with the 100 moving below the 200 So this is actually like a double death cross. This is not good. It doesn’t matter how you look at it. Oh, the whales they’re trying to fake us out.
It’S not good guys. We need a relief rally pretty much imminently or we are going to go much much lower, and you can actually see right here that if we look at the vpvr, we have the major vpvr at around 34 590 with the next real major level of support down.
At around 23 200 or around that 24 000 level right down here, where a lot of people you know like Robert Kiyosaki and some of these hedge funds are looking to accumulate and also the largest, which is the red line right. You know here that’s literally right around the nineteen thousand twenty thousand 000 level right, so it is not looking great for bitcoin and I’m just being realistic. Now, what is the one thing we can look to now?
We are below the 200 daily moving average. Okay, we’ve dipped below it before in the past. However, the fact that we have stayed below this moving average for about a month right now is not good. Now, if we actually go back and we look at bitcoin’s history, you know you could see that essentially falling below you know. This line, really in the previous cycles, was the beginning of the major bear market right I mean if we go back here and we just look at what was happening back here in 2017.
We got below it and then look at this. It actually acted as resistance all the way here here here before. Finally, having that major capitulation to the downside we put in a bit of the adam and eve bottom and then look at right here as soon as we broke back above it, we started into the major rally and you could see the same thing happened here. We got back above it after the covid crash. We actually rode along on it as support and we did break to the upside, which is why a lot of people you know are comparing what happened back here, and we even did this fractal on the channel.
With this sort of very similar move, but the difference was, is we were above the 200 and if we actually look at the indicators um, they were very different on the chart as well. So what does this mean? Well, ultimately, guys, as I said, if we don’t break above this uh blue box territory, which is minimally 38 000 for bitcoin, with the high end being around um, with the high end being sort of around that 42 000 level, then oh yeah, then we are gonna most likely end up falling to some of these lower levels. We have our first support, obviously down here at 28, and you know our next one would be once like. I said down here around the 24 000, 25 000, and the absolute worst-case scenario, which also lines up perfectly with the Fibonacci retracement, which I showed you guys.
The other day would, of course, be revisiting our 20 000 level. I don’t really anticipate us going below the 20 000 level um. It is possible, it is possible, but I just think with all the momentum and the interest and the nations adopting bitcoin and the institutions – and you know the clear accumulation that we’ve seen from the whales but keep in mind. You know this is something that you know. Could take months to play outright, it could just be a slow sideways, boring grind.
You know before actually moving to the upside and, as i said, this would mimic what we saw in 2013 um. You know uh sort of mini bear market within the bull market right so right here we do have our 50 holdings us at around 31. 500. I do believe if bitcoin falls below the 31 500 level again and holds below it, um yeah, then I think we’re gonna go lower uh. So those are the two sides of the coin.
You know right now: it’s just bouncing between the uh, the regions. You know I’d love to tell you, I know exactly what’s going to happen, I don’t know exactly what’s going to happen, but I do have these ranges that we’re looking at, and I do know that if we break below that level, we are going to go much Lower and if we break above you know that box that I showed you, then I do believe we’re back in a bull market right now. I believe we’re in a crab market. You know, because crabs go sideways, that’s what they call it, and a lot of it is still depending on the dxy, obviously, the dxy having some resistance here. I would like to see this come back down if this does start to come lower.
I believe this is going to be very good for bitcoin. However, if we do have a breakout to the upside, I believe it’s not only going to be bad for bitcoin, but it’s also going to be bad for stocks, and I do believe that if stocks start to fall, then I think bitcoin will actually fall with the Stocks as well as we have seen a correlation in the past, so yeah, like I said guys lower time frames. Maybe they look. Okay, might have a little bit of a bounce, um larger time frames. As you begin to move up here, you know you go to the 12 hours.
You know you start to go to the daily and really all you’re, just seeing is um, lower highs and lot and lots of decrease in overall money flow. We’Re not getting the momentum on the pops that we’re really looking for so essentially it would take almost a miracle right. So is there any miracle left for bitcoin to actually break to the upside? Well, one thing positively sees: I told you there’d be a positive uh part of this video is um. Actually, the funding has gone very negative in the future.
So, essentially, when funding is negative, it means that the shorts are paying the longs, whereas when it’s positive it means that the longs are paying the shorts. You don’t really need to pay too much attention to that, but what you can look at is that when funding does start to get extremely negative, we often do see um or it is a sign that there is going to be a bit of a reversal right And and and same way for positive, so, for example, you know if we just take some of these levels right here. You know you could see right in this cluster right where bitcoin and we were still in a bear market right.
But you could see, there was a lot of you know, bitcoin started going up, started going up and you could see, funding started going up starting going up and then eventually it hit a peak and we had the major crash and then look the funding went into The negative right and then we went basically sideways for months and then right here we had funding flip into the positive again and that’s where we had this move, where bitcoin went from about nine thousand dollars all the way up to about thirteen thousand dollars right and If we actually look at what we’re doing right here and zoom in you could see that we actually are in the negative funding. So we are looking for this funding to flip at some point when I don’t really know specifically, but you can see as it gets overheated on this side.
You know, for example, it starts to fall down here and then we look for the drop. We also see the drop up here. Uh, sorry guys didn’t mean to do that to the um to the screen, but anyway, like I said you could see that funding is essentially negative right now, so you could be saying that this is an indication that we could be looking for minimally At least a relief bounce, maybe even back to that 42 000 level.
However, if we don’t hold it, then yeah, I do think we will have a continuation to the downside, so we’ll have to see, but unfortunately, right now, as I said on the daily things, are not looking too great um and you know one thing I just wanted To point out, though, is – and I hate to end on this uh this tweet, but according to Matt Wallace, he says reminder the dogecoin update is coming soon. It will position doze perfectly to become one of the most used currencies in the world and uh Elon musk said bitcoin and Ethereum are pursuing a multi-layer transaction system but base layer, transaction rate is slow and transaction cost is high.
There is merit, in my opinion, to doze maximizing base layer, transaction rate, and minimizing transaction cost with exchanges acting as the de facto secondary layer to which um you know the uh paolo responds. We need to start building rockets with spit and paper, definitely cheaper and more lightweight. Well, security won’t be the same, but it’s a viable trade-off right, and that is the thing guys you know we need to still I mean you know these. These Shiba Inu coins these dogecoins guys. We need to flush this out of the system.
There are so many speculators that have come into it. You know bitcoin and cryptocurrency recently, and you know you do have that trade-off. It’S the trifecta right. You have the decentralization. You have scalability and you have security rights and, as you increase speed, you lose possibly security or decentralization right.
There’S always that trade-off bitcoin. In my personal opinion, and in many other people’s opinion, is a perfect balance. The perfect trade-off of all of this – and you know you already have the greatest form of you – know the money off of a base, transaction layer of security.
You know nodes the network and, and you people not you, but people they just always want more right. It’S fear and it’s greed, and I just want to say one thing if you are scared right now, if these prices scare you if you know looking at some of these charts scare you right now well, then maybe you have a little bit too much in cryptocurrency And maybe you should look to take about 50 off the table, not financial advice.
I mean especially if you’re literally banking, on this money to support you over. You know the next year or so. If we do go into a bear market, but I will tell you one thing: bear markets are actually blessings in disguise. In fact, i you know there’s a saying that you know money’s actually made. You know in the bear markets.
Right I mean yeah. You could argue when you sell it, but really the accumulation happens in the bear markets. I mean when bitcoin was down at three thousand dollars. Think about that bitcoin is around thirty-three thousand dollars. Today it was down around three thousand dollars, which means that you could have gotten 10 bitcoin for the price of one bitcoin today, and I and many others that were successful in these markets, particularly take these opportunities, have taken these opportunities to accumulate in these bear markets.
So, even if we are moving into a bear market, you have to totally change your perception of thinking. You know if you’ve gone all in at the top. Well, okay, lesson learned, you know, but the good thing is that these cycles are exactly that. They’Re cycles right and when you have FOMO, when you have hype, when you have everybody, you know formulating it at the top saying we’re gonna go to a million-dollar bitcoin. Well, that’s when we have those 90 pullbacks right, but also don’t forget when bitcoin has those 80 crashes and everyone’s saying bitcoin is dead.
It’S over guys. We had our fun, it was a good run and you know that and you decide to just sell and get your last little pennies out that you can well guess what that’s when bitcoin decides to pump 900. So you have to be, you know in it. Basically, time in the markets is better than trying to time the markets, and yeah. We may be potentially heading into a bear market, or at least a mini correctional period, within the larger grand scheme of things, but just think about a time when bitcoin will be worth 300, 000 and then you’ll think to yourself.
Well, I used to be able to get 10 bitcoin at 30 000. You know where I can only get one now for 300 and that time will come because markets are cyclical and they’re just gonna do what they’re gonna do. They’Re gonna have euphorias they’re gonna have despairs they’re gonna have ups they’re gonna have downs. At the end of the day, nothing has ever been able to kill bitcoin. I still put my money where my mouth is.
I still hold primarily mostly bitcoin. You know 80 of everything I’m holding right now is bitcoin with the other percentage being cash and yeah. I don’t even really have any altcoins right now. I might have like a few that, are, you know, just speculative, but for the most part guys I mean I am essentially mostly all in bitcoin and I do believe in this long term, and you know if you’re looking to trade. It that’s one thing, but, let’s be honest, the holders have always been rewarded.
Long-Term huddling has always proven to work, no matter where you bought bitcoin, even if you bought at the highs, it doesn’t matter guys. Ultimately, this is designed to go up in value. We have hyperinflation worldwide. We don’t really have a hard asset like bitcoin and, while you may say you can have gold or silver the reality is we don’t know how much gold we have. We find new gold each day.
We might end up mining asteroids. If it’s up to Elon right, one of these days, there’s gold under the ocean, you know what I’m saying, guys. So, at the end of the day, bitcoin is the answer, and oh yeah, oh, by the way, just to zoom out in the grand i just wanted to actually just show you guys this chart, while we’re here I mean like this – is literally what we’re freaking Out about I mean: do you see this? This is what we’re actually freaking out about, so guys, it’s all right. If we do go into a bit of a bear market, look if it’s your first bear market enjoy it accumulate.
This is literally where the money is made is buying the coins when they’re cheap right. That is how you accumulate. That’S how your dollar cost average so hope you guys uh enjoyed today’s video, as I said, I’m probably not going to be doing videos every single day. There’S really no point until we have a move right. If once we have a breakout to the downside, then we’ll start looking at levels and we can start trading again, but I’m you know, I’m not gonna give you guys signals or tell you to trade.
This crazy sideways pattern. I mean I’ve made a few scalp trades, but it’s just very risky times to be trading. You know, let’s wait till we get a confirmed trend to the upside or to the downside, and then we can start. You know getting back into the swing of things right guys, so thank you so much again for coming back to the channel. I hope you guys appreciated this update if you do feel free to like to get subscribed.
If you haven’t and uh yeah, that’s it for me. So let me know: what do you guys think? Do you think that uh we’re just gonna have a major rally back up and all the bears are gonna be left in the dust? Or do you actually think that maybe we do actually need to have that cool-off period and we are looking at a bit of a bear market even minimally? You know you know the shorter bear market, maybe six to eight months, or do you think we’re going for the full three-year bear market drop.